The seder was wonderful, thanks to those who offered up. Had to cut the Manischevitz short however, what with homework to do. Homework that I had, in the best traditions of the naval service, put off until the last possible moment.
Summat to do with my Engineering Risk Benefit Analysis course. How hard could it be?
Oh. Hard enough. For me.
Question: P(A)=0.42, P(B|A)=0.66, and P(B|notA)=0.25. Find the following: P(not A), P(not B|A), P(not B|not A), P(B), P(not B), P(A|B), P(not A|B), P(A|not B), P(not A|not B).
Clear as mud?
Or how about this:
Julie Myers, a graduating senior in accounting, is preparing for an interview with a big eight accounting firm. Before the interview, she sets her chances of eventually getting an offer at 50%. Then, on thinking about her friends who have interviewed and gotten offers from this firm, she realizes that of the people who received offers, 95% had good interviews. On the other hand, of those who did not receive offers, 75% said they had good interviews. If Julie Myers has a good interview, what are her chances of receiving an offer?
I’d have said, “95%.” The answer was 56%. Which was clearly in there somewhere.
Right?
Sigh.
Lex, in the future can you please provide access to Ibuprofen when you post this stuff? I have a headache now….
You missed it because it is a very outdated question. There was once a Big 8. It’s now down to the Big 4. Very undestandable.
Dang…
You are dregging up memories of STAT 301 classes. Argh!
My answer to #2 would have been 0% because Julie is obviously spending way too much time obsessing over other peoples interview performance than getting her own act together.
CAPT Lex,
P(not A) 0.58
P(not B|A) 0.34
P(not B|not A) 0.75
P(B) 0.91
P(not B) 0.09
P(A|B) 0.42
P(not A|B) 0.75
P(A|not B) 0.42
P(not A|not B) 0.58
These assume that the probability of A is not directly related or indirectly related to the probability of B. If these are wrong, you can say the Stupid Nuke was wrong.
God I hate myself. Why did I spend time learning this crap? Like Pavlov’s dog, when you put the problem in front of me I must solve it.
Sorry CAPT. I’m not even sure the answers are right. Just a stab in the dark. Chalk it up to an opportunity to flash my ass in front of lots of folks when I just don’t get the opportunity to do much like that anymore.
Email me if you want the spreadsheet with the calculations.
Subsunk
Let me try presenting #2 in a way that might be more clear to a brown shoe O-6
Miramar, 1986
The hop is a 100 v 100 dissimilar ACM. 200 jets take off. Kenny Loggins soundtrack blares in background.
At the merge, it?
Let me try presenting #2 in a way that might be more clear to a brown shoe O-6
Miramar, 1986
The hop is a 100 v 100 dissimilar ACM. 200 jets take off. Kenny Loggins soundtrack blares in background.
At the merge, it’s complete chaos. 100 engagements, 100 pilots get kills, 100 guys called out of fight.
200 jets land. Everyone walks over to the debrief area, where a tall, attractive, all american blonde directs the winners to sit on the left side of the aisle, and the losers to sit on the right. 100 pilots sit down on the left, the others shuffle over to the empty seats on the right.
Her heels click noisily as she paces up the aisle and you consider writing a letter to Proceedings recommending seamed stockings, heels and a flight jacket as a standard sea bag item.
She turns and asks the Winners, “How many of you thought you had the advantage at the merge?”
95 hands go up.
She turns and asks the Losers, “How many of you thought you had the advantage at the merge?”
75 hands go up.
She mutters something under her breath about limitless pilot egos, then says, “Everyone who thought they had the advantage at the merge, get up and stand in the hangar”
95 guys from the Winner section get up, 75 guys from the Loser section get up and shuffle across the flight line.
Charlie saucily walks over to the hanger and counts the number of pilots (95+75 = 170). And says “So 170 pilots all thought they had advantage”
Charlie then asks these 170 pilots to raise their hand if they got a kill. As expected, 95 guys raised their hand. So Charlie says, “So of the 170 guys who thought they had the advantage, only 95 got kills, or,
….wait for it….. “56%”
Substitute “good interview” for “advantage”, “Offer” for “kill”, “Rejection” for “call out” and you’re there.
Hope this helps.
Subsunk, I’d appreciate that spreadsheet, although my text book had a few different answers from P(B) on…
Rellag – can I get you to teach the course? That finally makes sense
And here I thought the answer is *always* 42.