My own private Idaho
The seder was wonderful, thanks to those who offered up. Had to cut the Manischevitz short however, what with homework to do. Homework that I had, in the best traditions of the naval service, put off until the last possible moment.
Summat to do with my Engineering Risk Benefit Analysis course. How hard could it be?
Oh. Hard enough. For me.
Question: P(A)=0.42, P(B|A)=0.66, and P(B|notA)=0.25. Find the following: P(not A), P(not B|A), P(not B|not A), P(B), P(not B), P(A|B), P(not A|B), P(A|not B), P(not A|not B).
Clear as mud?
Or how about this:
Julie Myers, a graduating senior in accounting, is preparing for an interview with a big eight accounting firm. Before the interview, she sets her chances of eventually getting an offer at 50%. Then, on thinking about her friends who have interviewed and gotten offers from this firm, she realizes that of the people who received offers, 95% had good interviews. On the other hand, of those who did not receive offers, 75% said they had good interviews. If Julie Myers has a good interview, what are her chances of receiving an offer?
I’d have said, “95%.” The answer was 56%. Which was clearly in there somewhere.
Right?
Sigh.
Lex, in the future can you please provide access to Ibuprofen when you post this stuff? I have a headache now….
You missed it because it is a very outdated question. There was once a Big 8. It’s now down to the Big 4. Very undestandable.
Dang…
You are dregging up memories of STAT 301 classes. Argh!
My answer to #2 would have been 0% because Julie is obviously spending way too much time obsessing over other peoples interview performance than getting her own act together.
CAPT Lex,
P(not A) 0.58
P(not B|A) 0.34
P(not B|not A) 0.75
P(B) 0.91
P(not B) 0.09
P(A|B) 0.42
P(not A|B) 0.75
P(A|not B) 0.42
P(not A|not B) 0.58
These assume that the probability of A is not directly related or indirectly related to the probability of B. If these are wrong, you can say the Stupid Nuke was wrong.
God I hate myself. Why did I spend time learning this crap? Like Pavlov’s dog, when you put the problem in front of me I must solve it.
Sorry CAPT. I’m not even sure the answers are right. Just a stab in the dark. Chalk it up to an opportunity to flash my ass in front of lots of folks when I just don’t get the opportunity to do much like that anymore.
Email me if you want the spreadsheet with the calculations.
Subsunk
Let me try presenting #2 in a way that might be more clear to a brown shoe O-6
Miramar, 1986
The hop is a 100 v 100 dissimilar ACM. 200 jets take off. Kenny Loggins soundtrack blares in background.
At the merge, it?
Subsunk, I’d appreciate that spreadsheet, although my text book had a few different answers from P(B) on…
Rellag – can I get you to teach the course? That finally makes sense
And here I thought the answer is *always* 42.