China, Russia and France
Can you name three things these countries have in common?
Why yes. Yes they are permanent members of the US Security Council, and as such they do have veto authority over any sanctions that might be contempleted by that body against oh, Iran say, for that country’s violation of its agreements under the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Not to mention the sanctions strongly suggested by UNSC in Resolution 1696, whose 31 August 2006 deadline to suspend nuclear enrichment Iran has defied.
And yes, yes they are countries with strong historic and commercial ties to Iran. Growth in the Chinese economy is closely tied to its ever-increasing thirst for energy supplies. Access to new sources of energy – Iran’s oil shipments to China were up 56% from last year – are the new hallmark of a pragmatic Chinese foreign policy. Meanwhile, China’s exports back to Iran are up 25% year-over-year. Russian business, having nearly completed a $1billion deal on Iran’s first nuclear power plant, is now poised to sell them a $700 million air defense system, while French exports to Iran – automobiles, mostly – is a $2.3 billion annual trade.
And that’s a good point: There is a strain in the Russian psyche that still resents the loss of the Soviet empire, it’s prestige and world wide weight. The whole world used to shiver in the balance when the Kremlin spoke and if it doesn’t now, the current occupants know whom to blame. France has never trusted American “hyper-power” and in its private dreams sees itself as the natural heir to political leadership over a united Europe. Once situated, and having hopefully pried apart the “special relationship” between Britain and America, they’ll be able to use that position as a counterweight to restore “balance” to what has become an “unnatural,” uni-polar world. Exactly what France might do with that power, apart from reflexively opposing US policy just for the sake of doing so, has not been made entirely clear. In any case, while all that’s going on behind the curtain they can in the interim keep American interests on the topic of a nuclearized Iran tied up in procedural knots in the UN. And as for the Chinese, Beijing seeks its rightful place in of the natural order – a greatly augmented sphere of political influence in the Asia. Right now they can’t help feeling like someone else is in their chair.
And yes, it is also true that if Iran was to develop a terrorist-portable “suitcase” nuke out of all that enriched Uranium they’ll be processing, it’s very unlikely that Moscow, Paris or Beijing will be stamped on the deliver-to address – the mad mullahs have better (gefilte) fish to fry. And to cap things off the president of Egypt’s son, Gamal Mubarack has now floated the notion of a “Sunni” nuclearization to balance that of the Shi’a east. If that neighborhood goes nuclear, we could have ourselves a merry old time, trying to keep the genie in the bottle. But look at the bright side: Plenty of business opportunities there, once the (radioactive) dust settles.
There is in this country a long established – and not entirely unprincipled – tradition of skepticism when it comes to our foreign policy. A suspicion at times, that the quality of our actions abroad does not match the nobility of our rhetoric, and the ideals upon which we were founded. That’s healthy.
Pairing that skepticism with a blind faith in the rectitude of those who’d position themselves against us, is not however.
This is just the old game, played to vastly higher stakes than ever in the past. Eyes wide open.
The dark humorists amongst those of us studying nuclear targeting and weapons “back in the day” re. so-called independent deterrents of the European allies was that the French ‘force d’frappe’ missiles were probably aimed Westward…
-SJS
Re: The French. I had to laugh when I read this bit from Bernard Lewis:
The French cherish the curious illusion that they invented democracy, but since the great revolution of 1789, they have had two monarchies, two empires, two dictatorships, and at the last count, five republics. And I’m not sure that they’ve got it right yet.
Truer words never spoken…
Shipmates,
I remember well the cautions given me regarding classified material and the French. Never do it. The French were always seen as nothing less than a conduit to the Soviets.
Since the time of Napoleon, France has obsessed about one thing only: L’Gloire. France fancies herself a grand old dame, turning heads as she enters the world stage, and demanding respect for her pronouncements, opinions and status.
Sadly, what the world sees is a petulant whore, who has never seen a dollar she didn’t covet and is willing to sell out for that illusive contract regardless of the john who propositions her. Her demands for respect are more akin to adolescent foot-stamping, and the clothes of respectability are nowadays mere hand-me-downs, soiled and outdated.
France is a dying empire, and a dangerous one because her final spasms and flailing may well spread her disease to other parts of a weakened Europe.
We can only hope that the Chanson D’Roland may be sung in the people’s soul before the lights of civilization are quenched by heathen hordes from across the mediteranean. Only the courage and fortitude of Roland and Charlemagne can save France from a Muslim conquest now, and it is hardly a thing of certainty that the French will remember who they can be, or whether their social engineers will let them remember.
Respects,
AW1 Tim
A great quote from Herman Wouk, “Czarist or Communist, Russia behaves exactly the same I assure you…..”.
In the good old days we could have just split up Iran with Russians, as the British did during World War II. Russia only left her half whining the entire way after the war. We (the US) had 30+ good years under the Shah and then the current era gloomily dawned.
The French are just entertainment. The Russians and Chinese however, are in the game for the long haul. And of the two, the Chinese represent the greater threat.
There are times I miss the Cold War. If there had been a strong counterbalancing superpower, the game could have stayed framed in some familiar rules. Now because the Russians are not an equal player in the game, there are no rules……………
Plus the Cold War was good for job security……….
Buck:
Great Bernard Lewis quote. Puts me in mind of the old joke in which a man goes into a library to ask if they have the French constitution and is told, “Sorry, we don’t stock periodicals.”
A lot to think about here…Interesting times.
One noticable factor I can digest, are the number of commercial ties. Commercial ties for manufactured goods and commodities that move from place to place by sea. By sea-brown, green, blue.
Why do we have such a tiny Navy right now?
B2
Shipmates,
Perhaps we can pass some sort of law or regulation that requires a reading and comprehension of Mahan before receiving a High School diploma? Or at least before being allowed to run for Congress?
Respects,
Golly, aren’t those the same three characters that said they would not continue the soon-to-expire sanctions against Iraq, which would have freed up Saddam to pursue with renewed vigor a broader WMD program?
In Oil-For-Food, France, China and Russia were found to have been illicitly benefiting from from Saddam’s robust program to evade the UN sanctions. Looks like the same is true with Iran this time around. The question is: what do we do about it?
Axis of Weasles
Web Reconnaissance for 09/25/2006…
A short recon of what?
Web Reconnaissance for 09/25/2006…
A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention….