“Be fruitful and multiply,” we were instructed, but some have forgotten the lesson , and others have pretty much thrown away the text book:
Europe’s declining population will leave its armed forces facing a serious manpower shortage in 20 years, forcing governments to shrink their armies, develop more robot weapons or outsource military tasks, according to defense experts.
The report they wrote, which was to be submitted to European Union defense ministers today, paints a worrisome picture of an aging Europe in 2025 struggling to maintain military spending in the face of growing pension costs.
”The global context is sobering,” the authors said in the report, which pointed to demographic and economic trends that could lead to a ”relatively poorer” Europe surrounded by struggling regions in Africa, the Middle East and Russia.
And the Europeans won’t be able to rely on their traditional trans-Atlantic ally, as the United States will increasingly switch its attention to Asia, where China and India are developing as new global superpowers, the report warns.
”Relatively poorer, older and more anxious about its security, Europe may also find itself increasingly alone in confronting the problems of a difficult neighborhood,” the report said.
I think that one of the things that fuels the tendency towards anti-Americanism in Europe is that, despite the fact that we squabble amongst ourselves like fishwives at market, we still believe in our fundamental myths, we still stand for something more than merely lines on a map, or loose confederations of interest groups muscling in at the government trough. Apart from the usual suspects whom we identify by their vocal – if customarily projected – self-loathing, there is still a common and general belief in the grandness of our national experiment, no matter how imperfectly it is imperfectly realized. We are too bold, too sure of ourselves, too optimistic, too internationally muscular, too personally fat and yes: Altogether too religious.
A maddening combination no doubt, to those who no longer believe in anything at all, not in the world that they have crafted, not even in their own future.
Thus: Not with a bang, but with a whimper.
I have no clue what their policy is on immigrants serving, but with the massive numbers (and growing) of those of middle eastern descent as an ever larger percentage of the population….
At some point, the militaries in Europe will look very much like that, only because that ethnic group will be available to serve…
Very long term implications here….
We may be living in the glass house, when it comes to this sort of stat:
Crude birth rate (live births per 1000 inhabitants)
Germany (lowest birth rate in EU): 8.4
Latvia: 8.8
Poland:9.3
Hungary: 9.4
Greece: 9.4
Czech Republic: 9.6
Austria: 9.7
Italy: 9.7
Spain: 10.6
UK: 12.0
France: 12.7
Ireland (highest birth rate in EU): 15.2
EU 25 average: 10.5
United States: 14
PRC: 13.3
India: 22
Afghanistan: 47
Iran: 17
Syria: 27.7
Egypt: 23.9
Saudi Arabia: 29.3
Jordan: 21.2
Pakistan: 29.7
(EU stats from the BBC, the others from the CIA factbook).
It’s obviously not a purely “more is better” thing, but…
True, DD – but we’re closer to the demographic replacement rate, while the immigration we’re getting is, for the most part, both culturally familiar and second generation assimilable.
Interesting implications when you bounce that against these stats though…
Vatican Roulette, anyone?
Am I the only one who sees an opportunity here?
N
Opportunity? Absolutely! I think this is the perfect moment to invade Europe, take the pastry chefs prisoner and bring them back over here as slave labor. I’d definitely buy one.
Or did you have something else in mind?
Kristen,
I like the cut of your jib! Are there any chefettes? I might also be in the market for a beermistress.
Nose
I love the way the male mind works. Unlike you, I wasn’t going to specify the sex of my pastry chef. I’d be willing to have male, female or indeterminate if the work product is scrumptious.
Homer Simpson voice; auuuugh Pastries
Isn’t “outsource military tasks” 21C speak for mercenaries?
Not that I necessarily have a problem with that…
Lex – I’m not so much saying that we’re in trouble as that the Europeans mightn’t be, as well. From an economic and military power perspective, I’d rather have the Germans’ birthrate than the Afghans’. You cited The Economist, and The Economist recently posed the question of “how many Japanese does Japan need.” There may be some friction in dealing, temporarily perhaps, with an overage population, but many countries may be more powerful in the long run with a smaller population. Since we’ve not counted on winning by (human) attrition since Appomattox, I think we’re good with