Thirty-six months

Retired Army General Barry McCaffrey is a man whose equal legions of critics and admirers could fight a pretty decent civil war amongst themselves. Whatever else is said about him, there’s general agreement however that he’s a straight shooter who tells it like he sees it. McCaffrey has returned from a mid-March trip to Iraq to report that the country is embroiled in a low-level civil war of its own.

The eight-page report is sobering reading, especially the front matter, labeled “The Problem”, wherein McCaffrey summarizes the issues of the on-going insurgency, which seems to grow new heads even as Coalition forces chop the old ones off, the internal displacement of sects and ethnic populations, the wholesale emmigration, or brain drain, of the country’s best and brightest, an ineffective civil government whose writ does not extend beyond the capital – and not persistently across the capital – criminal gangs, a malfunctioning police and court system, a weakly equipped, led and motivated Iraqi Army, the increasing operational strain on the US Army and Marine Corps (as well as an additional burden about to be placed on the National Guard in support of the Surge), and the poverty of virtue in the regional neighborhood.

All of this we knew of course. Which is why it seems so strange that the Washington Post has chosen to frame their analysis of the report in such familiar terms, while only glancingly covering McCaffrey’s more optimistic observations and eliding entirely any reference to the critical strategic importance of victory. I’ll paraphrase some of that, starting with a body of the report labeled, “The Current Situation”:

Since the arrival of General David Petraeus in command of Multi-National Force Iraq— the situation on the ground has clearly and measurably improved.

1st: The Maliki government has given the green light to prune out elements of the renegade Sadr organization in Baghdad. More than 600+ rogue leaders have been harvested by US and Iraqi special operations forces with the explicit or tacit consent of the government. Sadr himself has fled to Iran and many of his key leaders have escaped to the safety of the Shia south. His fighting cadres were ordered to go to ground, hide their weapons, take down their check points, stop the terrible ethnic cleansing and terror tactics against the Sunni population, and ignore (not cooperate) with US and ISF forces.

2nd: The US and Iraqi Forces have now dramatically changed their operational scheme. More then 50+ Iraqi Police/Army and US Army Joint Security Stations (JSS) are now being emplaced across the city and extended into the suburbs. The pre-operation planning and rehearsals were superb. The presence of these joint military elements is now becoming ubiquitous across the urban areas. Although many of these small outposts have been attacked‚Äînone has yet been seriously jeopardized. The Iraqi people are encouraged —life is almost immediately springing back in many parts of the city. The murder rate has plummeted. IED attacks on US forces during their formerly vulnerable daily transits from huge US bases on the periphery of Baghdad are down— since these forces are now permanently based in their operational area.

3rd: The Iraqis have finally committed credible numbers of integrated Police and Army units to the battle of Baghdad. The strength of IA, IP, and NP units has steadily gone up aided by clever monetary and troop leader incentives. The ISF formations are showing increased willingness to aggressively operate against insurgent/militia forces. Although there is continuing political interference by politicians of both the Iraqi Administration and legislators— this is clearly a serious urban security operation.

4th: There is a real and growing ground swell of Sunni tribal opposition to the Al Qaeda-in-Iraq terror formations. This counter-Al Qaeda movement in Anbar Province was fostered by brilliant US Marine leadership. There is now unmistakable evidence that the western Sunni tribes are increasingly convinced that they blundered badly by sitting out the political process. They are also keenly aware of the fragility of the continued US military presence that stands between them and a vengeful and overwhelming Shia-Kurdish majority class— which was brutally treated by Saddam and his cruel regime. There is now active combat between Sunni tribal leadership and AQI terrorists. Of even greater importance, the Sunni tribes are now supplying their young men as drafts for the Iraqi Police. AQI is responding with customary and sickening violence… all designed to intimidate the tribes. It is not working. The Takfiri AQI extremism of: no music, no photos, no videos, no cutting of beards, etc does not sit well with the moderate form of Islam practiced among the western tribes. This is a crucial struggle and it is going our way‚Äîfor now.

5th: The equipment and resources for the Iraqi Security Forces has increased dramatically. PM Maliki has pushed to create a larger security force of more than 100,000 Iraqi Army troops. Thousands of armored Humvee‚Äôs, Cougar and BTR-80 light wheeled armored vehicles , and other equipment are now flowing into the force. To my great surprise, the Iraqis are using FMS Sales to execute their capital expenditure program with great effect. This includes transition to all US small arms for M4 Carbine and M16A2 rifle. The ISF training system is beginning to work effectively with their own trainers. The Iraqi training base is cranking out 24,000 soldiers a year from 5 Regional and two national training bases. More than 12 Police Academies are producing 26,000 new police a year. The end goal will be an Iraqi security force of more than 370,000 Police and Army— organized in 120 battalions.

6th: Reconciliation of the internal warring elements in Iraq will be how we eventually win the war in Iraq—if it happens. There is a very sophisticated and carefully integrated approach by the Iraqi government and Coalition actors to defuse the armed violence from internal enemies and bring people into the political process. There are encouraging signs that the peace and participation message does resonate with many of the more moderate Sunni and Shia warring factions. Of course, there is no intent to negotiate with either the extreme Bathist elements or the Al Qaeda in Iraq terrorists. The UK three star Deputy MNF-I Commander ‚Äì (LTG Graeme Lamb) has done a superb job with this process.

7th: US Combat forces are simply superb. The Army and Marine brigade, battalion, and company commanders are the most experienced and talented leaders in our history. Re-enlistment rates are simply astonishing. The joint integration of combat power is extremely effective — but is deemed unremarkable by the involved units. (I found a Marine battalion‚Äîwith all three of its fighting companies attached from an Army battalion.) These Marine and Army combat units rapidly employ synchronized air and ground combat power, use enormous fire discipline, are compassionate with vulnerable civilians, and move with explosive energy and courage when they pin a target.

McCaffrey estimates that we and our Iraqi partners have 36 months to set the conditions for victory: A free, stable and democratic Iraq, governed by the rule of law, which is able to defend itself and no threat to the world or its neighbors. Although he believes that victory is possible within this timeframe – and critical to achieve – the timeline is chiefly political: the current president will be able to fight off constitutional challenges to his Article II powers throughout the remainder of his term, but his successor will have to either cement the win or pull the plug after a year in office. Domestic support for the war has evaporated and will not return.

There is also in McCaffrey’s words the concern of a soldier for his servicemen, and of a general for his institution: The ground forces cannot indefinitely sustain the pace and tempo of operations in Iraq and Afghanistan. He fears the consequences of defeat:

A disaster in Iraq will in all likelihood result in a widened regional struggle which will endanger America’s strategic interests in the Mid-east for a generation. We will also produce another generation of soldiers who lack confidence in their American politicians, the media, and their own senior military leadership.

The victory in Iraq – for ourselves and for the Iraqi people – will come with a political and economic effort that walks the top politicians – secular, sectarian and ethnic – back from the brink of calamity, a process that will lead to the creation of a functioning federal state. The Iraqi Army must be adequately equipped and regional actors engaged in a dialogue.

Time is short, the consequences enormous. McCaffrey summarizes:

We have brilliant military and civilian leadership on the ground in Iraq. General Dave Petraeus, LTG Ray Odierno, and Ambassador Ryan Crocker have the country’s treasure and combat power at their disposal. Our cause is just. The consequence of failure will be severe.

The American people hold that the US Armed Forces are the most trusted institution in our society. The polls also show that domestic opinion is not calling for precipitous withdrawal. However, this whole Iraq operation is on the edge of unraveling as the poor Iraqis batter each other to death with our forces caught in the middle.

We now need a last powerful effort to provide to US leaders on the ground —the political support, economic reconstruction resources, and military strength it requires to succeed.

Thirty-six months.