Now what?

The “Surge” of combat troops to Iraq has resulted in a tactical victory in Iraq, according to Jonathan Last in the Philadelphia Enquirer:

In May, the United States suffered 120 hostile deaths. Each month since, that number has fallen, to 93 in June, 56 in August, and then 43 in September. (Total U.S. military deaths, which include non-hostile deaths, have also fallen, from 126 in May to 66 in September.)

Within these numbers is more encouragement: Fatalities from improvised explosive devices (IEDs) have also dropped dramatically, from 88 in May, to 44 in July, to 27 in September. IEDs have been the insurgents’ most effective weapon against coalition forces. But Petraeus has not just rolled the new troops out into the field, he has changed the approach from one of clearing and holding territory to clearing and protecting populations.

The new tactics also are crippling the enemy. USA Today reports that 4,882 militants have been killed by coalition forces this year, up 25 percent from the total of insurgents killed during all of 2006. But the surge seems to be creating a pacifying effect: The number of enemy killed in action increased each month from March until June, when 634 were killed. Since then, the number has fallen each month; in September, just under 300 were killed. A reasonable explanation might be that the enemy is beginning to melt away in the face of strong opposition.

The final piece of hopeful data comes from the numbers of dead Iraqis. A year ago, what looked like a civil war was at its height: 3,389 Iraqi civilians were killed in September 2006, along with 150 members of the Iraqi security forces. When the surge began in February, 2,864 civilians and 150 Iraqi security officers were killed. Among these two cohorts, the effects of the surge have not been steady. From month to month they have risen and fallen – in May 198 Iraqi security personnel were killed along with 1,782 civilians – but the general trend has been one of steep decline. Again, September was an encouraging month: 746 civilians and 96 members of the Iraqi security forces died.

These numbers are signs of a growing tactical victory for coalition forces. The question is whether this tactical victory will lead to a strategic victory.

That’s a great question.

It now seems too late to hope for an authentic national reconciliation – the best that can be achieved in the short term anyway appears to be some kind of accommodation. A lasting peace – not by Swiss standards, mind you, but by regional standards – would come from the recognition by all parties recognize that the costs of continued conflict outweigh potential benefits. Classical “rational actor” theory.

That was always true of course, so long as the Coalition didn’t lose its will and throw in the towel. It just took this long for all but the most embittered combatants to come to grips with it. Support the central government against organized resistance, arm the Sunni tribes to up the price of any Shi’a notions of genocidal revenge, and grow local and regional governments to provide services until the overall level of insecurity diminishes. Then start to rebuild: Infrastructure, defense and security forces and national institutions.

Which is pretty much what we’re doing. Smart guy, that Petraeus.