Some times in a grudge match it’s hard to know when you’ve turned the corner. Whether the light at the end of the tunnel represents sunshine – or an oncoming freight train:
The U.S. military believes it has dealt devastating and perhaps irreversible blows to al-Qaeda in Iraq in recent months, leading some generals to advocate a declaration of victory over the group, which the Bush administration has long described as the most lethal U.S. adversary in Iraq.
But as the White House and its military commanders plan the next phase of the war, other officials have cautioned against taking what they see as a premature step that could create strategic and political difficulties for the United States.
Are they really beaten, or just lying low and reconstituting? Fleeing the battlefield entirely, or is this a case of reculer pour mieux sauter? In Afghanistan perhaps? Or somewhere closer to home? It’s probably too soon to say, but not too late to hope. We used to know how to dare to hope.
AQI was always the agent of the most shocking violence in Iraq, and the catalyst that sparked so much sectarian bloodshed. Even crushing them entirely would not by itself heal that nation’s many wounds. Too many agents of despair and mistrust still move about in the darkness, people who reckon their personal prestige by the amount of hatred they can stir up and who cherish their carefully nurtured grudges.
And that’s just in the blogosphere.
But if AQI is beaten, if this is true, it would mark not the beginning of the end, but rather the end of the beginning. And it would be a damned good start.
There are of course those who consider any good news coming out of Iraq to be, well – terrible news. They’ll find plenty of good company over on the other side of the issue, saying it can’t be true. Because. And even if it is true then let’s just pack it in before we can consolidate our gains.
And anyway, what about Blackwater?!?1?
Because the narrative must be protected.
Ah, I see you’ve been wading in the Fever Swamps again, haven’t you, Lex? “Clue-free” doesn’t even begin to describe those “people.” T’is amazing…
AQ beaten? Don’t know. I don’t think our own leadership has the metrics in 2001,2002,2003 etc to know what AQs capacity was at those times. We do know in some places where we make an effort that they are beat down, also too because the locals are tired of AQs killing their people but not having local roots. AQ doesn’t seem to work on tight deadlines the way we do. That still leaves the tradiditonal home boy threats to deal with. I think the best AQ can ever hope to be is some kind of killing threat, but never a prime force. They aren’t like an an mahmood al sader for example that has his ugly face up on a poster and is known to represent a possible form of future government for example in the south. Both are threats to deal with, and one has a more able following to the locals as opposed to a franchise guy figure head like Col Sanders/Osama who doesn’t have a real handle on the locals. Of course we aren’t out of the woods yet.
ELP you make a nice point about the metrics. I am heartened by the success but share your scepticism of AQs imminent demise. As long as they have recruiters and a willing populace to blow themselves up, then they will be a threat. Regardless, they initially thought the U.S. Military was weak and could not fight. They at least now know that a big can of woopa$$ is available upon request.
Forgive the view of a dumb grunt, but I think that all declarations of victory should be qualified…
AQ is dead when the last slimeball lays dead in the dust after an infantryman with a pistol has rendered him hors de combat with a “possible” to the cranium… Until then, they can still bite…
…but I only state the obvious… I’ll get back in my hole now.
I believe we’re in a “GLOBAL War on Terror”. I’m happy the battle with AQI is looking good, but I’m thinking that old phrase… “Don’t count your chickens… ” applies here.
Sgt. B. has the right idea!
When the Marines want out of Anbar to take on the Afg mission, you know the show is over.
Peter, should it not be don’t count your martyrs until…..?
Web Reconnaissance for 10/16/2007…
A short recon of whats out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often….
Cap’n,
I must concur with Sgt. B. It may very well be that AQI is in deep kimchee in Iraq at the minute. However, that does not mean the fight is not shifting to another theater.
No, the fight will non be over until the last radical Muslim has achieved less than room temperature and the rest of the religion moves into the 21st Century.
Concur with SeniorD that it won’t be over until they can move into the 21st Century…
And treat their women with respect and dignity and grant them full rights of their own.
Freeing their women from the degradation they experience now will lift their entire civilization out of the 7th Century, where they languish now with modern technology to enhance their ignorance.
But we’ve discussed this before, I think.
Therapist1 says”Regardless, they initially thought the U.S. Military was weak and could not fight. They at least now know that a big can of woopa$$ is available upon request”.
I think that they thought the American People are weak, and I don’t see anything to disprove that the Democrats aren’t weak. AQ, IMO didn’t take into account that the silent Majority of this country aren’t Democraps.
You know as far as Al Queda is concerned there are no Democrats or Republicans-just Americans. They will try to kill Americans regardless of party affiliation.
Operative word being try. However even if you declare victory here-the seeds of terrorism are still out there in the world. And a lot of Muslims will continue to buy the ideas they put forth. Its not about womens rights so much as it is about making Islam irrelevant to daily life.