When the Cold War ended, few were so happy as those of us who had manned the battlements. Well we knew what we were up against if push had come to shove, and everyone knew it wouldn’t be pretty – not in the Fulda Gap, nor in the Greenland-UK-Iceland corridor, nor even in the Northern Pacific. Many tens of thousands would have died in the opening salvos and – depending on the breaks – it was impossible to say how many millions more if things really got out of hand. Perhaps all of them.
But as the 80′s wore on, there were fewer of us that had ever known a world that wasn’t under threat of a nuclear winter, a world wherein the “doomsday” clock was not being perpetually advanced towards midnight by “concerned scientists.” So it was that when the wall came down, when the “evil empire” unspun, when glasnost and perestroika gave way to democracy a relieved world rejoiced with a glad shout – a dangerous rivalry would give way to a “partnership for peace.” Our joy was perhaps improvident. It certainly seems to have been premature.
The Russians are a proud and ancient race, with a world view shaped by historical insults and assaults – memories of the Tatar yoke still burn, as do resentments of invading hordes from the west as well as from the Mongol east. To a national character already predisposed to dourness by fierce weather, there is an added and resilient strain of xenophobia against “others” within the walls of Rus herself. What seemed to us the gradual liberation of enslaved peoples – people turning their eyes and hopes to the west after their own long winter’s night had ended – seemed to the Russian nationalist grim confirmation of the wisdom of empire building: In the eastward expansion of the EU and NATO towards the borders and in foreign meddling in the political processes of the Caucasus was new evidence of the historical threat of encirclement.
The Yeltsin years were a trauma to the Russian psyche – everything fell apart: Employment, institutions, order, pensions and national prestige. The old system – based on “scientific inevitability” had shattered, but nothing recognizably human immediately took its place. Oligarchs emerged from the rubble with vicious mafiosi at their side but all the world’s generosity through through the darkest days of economic travail was only salt in the wound of Slavic pride. When Vladimir Putin said that the disintegration of the Soviet Union had been a geopolitical catastrophe, we thought he was speaking in hyperbole. He was instead speaking his heart.
Stick by stick and stone by stone, Mr. Putin has deconstructed the immature edifice of Russian democracy. Political enemies are arrested or hounded out of state, news outlets muzzled, critics murdered and power once again flows back to a center that prefers charismatic diktat to the rule of law. In this the Russian people, beneficiaries of an energy-driven economic boom, appreciative of order and regarding the world abroad with a renewed sense of pride are his willing allies.
All this we can forgive them, even if we are saddened by a shocking loss of opportunity – if a liberated people willingly return to the harness that is no one’s business but their own. But Mr. Putin’s grimly familiar brinkmanship over the issue of deploying a limited US ballistic missile defense in Poland and the Czech Republic – those ten interceptors pose no threat to his arsenal – combined with his coy dalliances with an Iranian regime that makes such a defense necessary are needlessly spiteful and potentially dangerous. From a practical perspective, oil rich Iran has nothing to offer Russia that Russia does not already have – except, perhaps, a stick with which to goad the West. It must be pleasing to wield that stick against the authors of the “greatest geopolitical catastrophe in history”, but it is not an objectively constructive thing to do.
With energy prices skyrocketing and America increasingly overstretched abroad and divided at home, the time may seem ripe to Mr. Putin to snub the US – the Russian president showed up 40 minutes late for a meeting with Secretary of State Condi Rice and defense secretary Richard Gates recently – and embrace Ahmadinejad. But the wheel never stops turning, and many an autocrat has bet against the West before, only to see himself reduced.
It is too soon to man the battlements, but well past time to put away those hopes of permanent partnership.
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.
Putin is just the latest iteration of the Russian leadership paradigm that has been going on for about 900 years. There is no prospect that it will ever be otherwise. At bottom they are thugs.
The commentary is erroneous in the light of Russian history. The “invasions from the west” were actually battles involving Sweden and Poland in response to the expansionistic campaigns of the Russian tsars. Peter the Great made a tour of the west to get as much info as possible about modern western armament so that he could employ the superior technology in his own campaigns.
The life of the peasant in Russia is one of the very sad stories in World history. Putin is a would-be tsar in a new costume, as were Lenin, Stalin, and the other communist dictators. The highest degree of absolutism was their goal and method. Meanwhile, literally millions of peasants have been slaughtered, either through mass killings or through starvation.
The inalienable rights of the common man must be held supreme. These rights have been absent from Russian for centuries while their brothers and sisters in other countries have grown and flourished in personal freedoms under constitutional governments.
Casca is right. Ken Wackes is right.
“I looked the man in the eye. I found him to be very straight forward and trustworthy and we had a very good dialogue. I was able to get a sense of his soul. He’s a man deeply committed to his country and the best interests of his country.”
- W
Some never stopped manning the battlements…
I think if you look at all northern cultures (Sweden comes to mind) the need for closer cooperation between strangers is more necessary and placed at a higher premium than further south. It’s hell when you can’t get your A/C repaired but it’s death if the steam gives out, if you get my drift.
So just as in COIN, the highest virtue is public order. That Russians are closer to the nitty – gritty than we are and feel more secure with a strong government should not be so upsetting. A lot of the freedom talk that Americans like to throw around is just hokum – look at the current debate over health care. Is our toleration of our lawyer overlords and the medical care monopoly much different than Russia’s toleration of monolithic government? A difference in scale, perhaps, but not in root cause.
I currently subscribe to the idea that Putin is merely building up his county’s rather famous arms industry. You know, creating new markets and such. You gotta admit, they were a respectable enemy, unlike AQ, and there certainly would not have been men on the moon, at least, but not nearly as much high tech if it were not for our war with Russia.
Oh, if Russians are thugs, might not Americans be greasy and hypocritical in a smarmy sort of way? I’ll admit ‘Used Car Salesman’ lacks the punch of ‘thug’ conversationally, but it might serve.
Let’s not get distracted. The Russians have enormous internal problems, not the least of which are a declining population and a high incidence of AIDS, not to mention the mafias.
We certainly can expect them to stir up trouble and to sell off their resources and expertise in ways that we wouldn’t prefer. But at the end of the day, their continued decline with respect to both Asia and the West is inevitable for decades to come.
The development of eastern Europe (and northern Asia) is progressing rapidly. The hope for Russia is that it will eventually rub off on them. In the meantime, their economic dependence on the rest of the world is certainly rising, though you wouldn’t recognize it yet from their rhetoric.
“From a practical perspective, oil rich Iran has nothing to offer Russia that Russia does not already have – except, perhaps, a stick with which to goad the West. “
Could part of the mix in Mr. Putin’s mind be to keep the Middle East boiling in an effort to keep oil prices up? All to Russia’s benefit, of course.
cottus +1
I am willing to bet that the majority of Americans cannot define the difference between freedom and liberty, and regard both more frequently as license.
A nation where 11 year olds are being dispensed birth control by government schools with parents in absentia (Maine), and the terms “Mom & Dad” are now subject to exclusion by government schools unless accompanied by more diverse sexual models.
If post-modern Americans were given the choice between liberty and a “free” baloney sandwich, the wise investor buys mustard shares.
Unfortunatley for the Russian people (and the Georgians, the Ukrainians, and all of the other “satellite” portions of the former USSR), there was simply an exchange of “commi-tsars” for the tsars. Russia is too big to rule and too isolated to let fall apart. Where are all of the weapons grade fissionable materials in Georgia, the Ukraine and the various “stans”? Black market? Putins’ personal bank account? Who knows. Point is, Our Estemable leader has it right: Iran and comments today about US Iraq presence being “pointless” are sticks to goad NATO and the US. Even if one opposes long term involvement in Iraq (or if you support it), hearing a former (current?) adversary say you are wasting your time strikes a nerve. Or is it we don’t want to learn from the misatkes of Afganistan in the 80s? Semper Fi, Captain.
Cap’n,
One aspect in this discussion that cannot be over looked is the impact of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) nd the Russian Orthodox Church Outside Russia (ROCOR). Putin was extremely circumspect towards the ROC Patriarch Alexis II, a known KGB Agent. Putin actively encouraged a reconciliation of the two churches. Recently, the ROCOR agreed the original reason for the exodus of clergy from Russia can be put aside. The reconciliation moves forward.
Why is this important? There are approximately several thousand American converts to the Russian Orthodox Church (disclaimer: I was one myself). Now with the Russian and American Governments moving slowly back into a antagonistic posture, those converts are torn. Their Patriarch supports Putin while their Government is opposing the Russians.
If the ROC continues to support Putin, that means the civilian population is behind him as well. The same could not be said of the Old Cold War days.
The commentary is erroneous in the light of Russian history. The “invasions from the west” were actually battles involving Sweden and Poland in response to the expansionistic campaigns of the Russian tsars.
Did someone just sleep through Napoleon and Hitler in history class? Admittedly the Crimean War is a bit confusing….
You might want to add the Mongol invasion in the 13th Century- from the east.
It certainly seems bleak from my angle at times. We were just discussing all this at work yesterday, as all of us remember the Cold War very well. It left us all feelinga bit depressed.
Between the Middle East, the North Koreans, the Chinese and the Russians… it brings a whole new dimension to the words ‘Axis of Evil’ .
I don’t think our moronic all knowing U.S. State Department has been very helpful. I don’t think the current policy of sticking our nose into their business is good either. Trying to extend NATO eastward is just not helpful for having relations with the sudo-commie Russia. Also interfering in the Ukraine and Geogia isn’t a smart move . Nor is trying to put the missile interceptors that close to Russia no matter what the intent. There are some other things but that is a start. I believe in being firm with Russia. However going out of our way to meddle in their back yard isn’t going to help us.
On this, the 45th anniversary of the Cuban Missile crisis and to paraphrase JFK:
Ich bin immer ein kalter Krieger gewesen
When the wall fell, I remained a skeptic…
When Bush said what he did, I remained a skeptic…and remain so. I suppose I spent too long in studying their nuclear weapons programs and doctrine to think that the collapse of the Soviet Union would substantially alter the nature of the Russian beast. A country that had plans that included the use of SS-18s (still the biggest in terms of throw weight ICBMs on either side) carrying bio-warheads filled with small pox, plague and other deadly diseases in follow-on strikes against the US homeland to ensure utter and total eradication of the populace, doesn’t strike me as one you can kiss and make up with after the wall fell.
Some of what Putin is about these days is for domestic consumption, i.e., to build the public adulation for him as PM after the Presidency where he will continue wield the levers of power. That much seems clear from readings of the domestic press.
The other part is to reassert Russia’s role on the world stage as the dominant nation of the world island (Eurasian landmass) and counter to the unchecked powers and actions of the reckless hegemon that claims to be the sole remaining superpower (some of this is self inflicted afterall). In no small degree is to bolster Russia’s resurgent arms industry and promote it abroad because lets face it, there isn’t much else besides energy that the outside world is very interested in.
The fuss about the European site is a red herring – their smart scientists and military personnel know and have privately voiced voiced as such, with one notable exception (about keeping private that is…) The Russian political leadership in general, and Putin in particular, have been looking for a hobby horse to climb upon and whip up public sentiment re. growing encroachment of the West in the “near beyond.”
The European site, unfortunately because of the physics and geometries involved with missiles originating in the Middle East (read: Iran) had to be sited where it is to ensure full coverage of the homeland that an over-the-shoulder kind of shot from the western fields in Alaska or California could not. That’s the smoke.
The fire is the meeting in Iran this week and the signals it may have sent to an unstable regime about what it could and what kind of trade space it had to maneuver in with regards to the nuclear program and potential US or Israeli response. The rather sudden one day trip of Israel’s premier to Russia is telling in that regard…
These are (and will be) interesting days indeed in the months and year to come – my fervent hope and prayer is that whomever comes to occupy the White House quickly recognizes the threat(s) we face – if they haven’t already.
- SJS
I would submit that history has little to do with Soviet orthodoxy (Putinism) making a comeback. Rather, all those Stalinist purges, Gulgs, etc,. from the 20′s to the 50′s and WWII have left a country shaped by the genetics of who survived from a gene pool of peasants.
That being said, I’ll bet Skippy would welcome back the Cold War. Wouldn’t ya Skip? Maybe we could get back the “600″ ship Navy! LOL. Sounds good to me.
No matter how bad they appear I wouldn’t expect many Russian Suicide Bombers. Not that I am unconcerned, thankfully they are a relatively symmetrical threat. Want to affect Russian policy ? Restrict pull out the capital invested there.
b2
Bring back the Cold War? You bet. 600 ship navy, 15 carriers, job security? Cruises to the North Atlantic and Pacific instead of the Gulf? What’s not to like?
Seriously, no one should be suprised by this and to tell you the truth if I were Putin I would probably be doing the same thing. From a Russian standpoint this is in Russia’s interest- it makes them competitive on the world stage and it forces the US to sit up and take notice.
Like it or not we are going to see more of this type of thing as certain nation states decide that they are going to compete with the US and use their assets: diplomatic, military and economic to do so. India is there, and so is China.
What is really troubling is that Iran is not understanding the lessons of history very well. “Iran’s friend is Russia’s enemy” has been a cardinal truth since the 1700′s. Iran cannot be a friend to Russia-just a victim.
Lex, I should think that Russia would not mind having a port on the Persian Gulf.
“From a practical perspective, oil rich Iran has nothing to offer Russia that Russia does not already have – except, perhaps, a stick with which to goad the West. “
Pat Buchanan has an interesting turn on this topic.