Bottom line:

These people have been wrong so many times about so many things, and so recently (Berlin wall, collapse of Russia, India/Pakistan, Iraq invading Kuwait, etc.). That’s just a short list. I’m not an optimist.

There are copious quantities of words either casting the CIA as a rogue Empire Builder or Clueless Stumblebum. This document, like anything else coming from the Administration, will be picked apart, reviewed through any number of different colored spectacles and conclusions drawn to satisfy the target audience.

That said, I heartily concur that Iran’s mullahs and their Presidential mouthpiece cannot be believed. We, as a nation, would do well, as Jim C. says, ‘Trust ,but verify’. We should also follow Teddy Roosevelt’s dictum ‘Speak softly but carry a big stick’.

Thomas Fingar, the Deputy Director of Analysis for the CIA and main author of the new and current NIE, testified to the completely opposite conclusion on July 11th, 2007, that Iran continued to pursue nuclear weapons.

“Iran and North Korea are the states of most concern to us. The United States’ concerns about Iran are shared by many nations, including many of Iran’s neighbors. Iran is continuing to pursue uranium enrichment and has shown more interest in protracting negotiations and working to delay and diminish the impact of UNSC sanctions than in reaching an acceptable diplomatic solution. We assess that Tehran is determined to develop nuclear weapons–despite its international obligations and international pressure. This is a grave concern to the other countries in the region whose security would be threatened should Iran acquire nuclear weapons.”

Given that the same team has produced both conclusions, they were either accurate and truthful then, or now, but not both. Prudence dictates to weigh and determine what estimate protects U.S. interests better.

One becomes rather irrelevant in that scenario.

Sadly, once the oil is gone, or unneeded, the middle east will become no more worthy of consideration than, say, Chad. Insofar as daily life on the rest of the planet is concerned, it will become immaterial. This is, indeed, the last chance that region will have to be relevant to human events. One might expect they’ve also drawn this conclusion.

– Max

Iam sorry to say that I believe that war with iran is inevitable. Unless, of course, a mag 9 earthquake levels the place.

For 25 centuries the Persians have been the jock itch if the middle east. They are predictable, sadly, and it will not end until they are violently and finally destroyed as a nation, a people, and become a sickening footnote to history.

I weep for the people of Iran, for there are many who would return to a more open, western, society. However, the rot is too deep, the pestilence of radical Islam to pervasice, to be healed by anything other than a societal version of chemotherapy.

It hurts me, it truly hurts me to admit it, but some things cannot be saved. Iran must be destroyed or, like the cancer it is, it will eventually metastasize and detroy everything around it.

Better that Iran die and the rest of the middle east survives, than all go down in a comflagration of fire and destruction.

Rome eventually dalt with Carthage and it would be best if we dealt with iran in a similar manner. Persia delenda est.

Respects,