I find myself surprisingly at peace with the notion that the Obamanon may end up wearing the 44 jersey come next January. Herself seems to be decomposing in front of our very eyes and John Edwards will never live down that YouTube video. Too many people have already seen and said to themselves, “No. I’m very sorry, but no.” What you have left over is that nice young man with imperfect hair, a compelling life story and an electorate seething to Just. Change. Something.
We go through it ever so often and often end up with buyer’s remorse, but the Republic will endure. It always has.
Sure, he’ll want to raise spending on health care and reduce it on defense, but we do go back and forth on that, always have and anyway he’ll need help from Congress to dispose of whatever he proposes. Which sounds easy with a Democratic majority in both houses until you remember the first two years of Bill Clinton’s first term and all of Jimmy Carter’s incumbency. No doubt he’ll also commit the country to any number of nanny-state intrusions that I’ll probably end up resenting, even if he will have to eat all the rich people to pay for them.
And yes, I do know that all of that talk of “uniting and not dividing” becomes tricksier once you actually get down to deciding whose ox will be gored. So don’t get me wrong, I’m not about to pull the lever for him myself. I just don’t think I’ll find myself writing any “I’ll run away to Canada if he wins” checks. Like some people did several years back. And still haven’t cashed them. The bastards.
Which is why I found myself reading this article by Michael O’Hanlon in the WSJ today, agreeing with point after point. Because the one thing a President Obama could no-kidding do all by himself is bring the troops back home within his first 16 months regardless of consequences, just as he’s promising he’d do. Perceptive readers may remember my objections on that score.
A good article, but almost as interesting was the closing on O’Hanlon’s CV:
Mr. O’Hanlon is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. He advised Hillary Clinton until last summer, when his support for the surge led to a cutting of ties by mutual consent.
All the political world that I truly care about – the part about fighting and winning the nation’s wars – can be read between the lines of those two sentences. Everything else is commentary.
Mr. Obama is entirely absolutely completely categorically unacceptable on Second Amendment grounds. Besides, he’s not really very American. I’m going to the courthouse tomorrow to switch my registration from Libertarian to Republican, so that I may vote in the primary. I’ll vote my conscience in the primary, and consider electoral votes in the general election.
So, should I vote for Thompson, or Paul?
P.s. There’s someone else who’s Daddy was from Kenya (which Daddy actually knew Barak’s Daddy) whom I and I betcha a lot of folks would prefer for President. I speak of Sgt(ret.) Juliette Ochieng, AKA Baldilocks. Hey, she’s already sworn the Oath, and has worn the uniform. She gets all kindsa diversity points, I suspect she might be smarter than I am, she seems right cool-headed and tough-minded; what’s not to like?
Ah, “whose” Daddy. Sorry.
Peaceful at the notion of President Obama, eh? I guess that’s fair, cause the thought agitates me enough for two. On the other hand, I don’t believe for a moment that either Obama or Edwards are electable outside of their own primaries, so I’m not going to jump. Just yet.
Justthis guy, Thompson. Definitely Thompson.
Yes, things like defense expenditures do go back and forth. With Obama, I’d be concerned that they’d go back, and back, and back, etc. You get the point. And, have no misperceptions; we saw the damage a “centrist” president like Bill Clinton can do to our national defense with a like-party Congress. Just imagine what an amateur like Obama might do. To me, a frightening thought. Keep your fingers crossed, and avoid being “at peace”with the prospect of an Obama presidency.
Obama will be a loose gun on deck. A term a high percentage of the readership here can relate to. Clueless amateur with no foundation or understanding of Realpolitik outside of Chicago.
Having read the constitution of the United States, I understand there is no accomodation for cost of living. I see an Obama Presidency as driving me, finally, out of my blue state digs and into a red state. We just can’t keep up with the taxes and an Obama presidency would add fuel to the fire. I have always found this kind of interesting as the unions control the wages in our area. Those that are not in unions, that bring basic dollars to the community, are being priced out of the community. Talk about killing the golden goose… Pretty soon everyone will be selling Amway to each other.
I agree with you, Lex. I look at the three and think that Obama is the lesser of ALL the evils and he doesn’t fill me with blood cold fear as the other two do.
It would truly depend on his advisors. That is an unknown to me as I don’t read the heavy politics as you and most of your readers. Is he capable of picking good advisors??? That is my question…
Ah, Kristen, on reading today’s xkcd, I think I catch your drift. Sadly, I may have to act like a normal person, to save what’s left of The Republic.
See:http://www.xkcd.com/367
Sigh.
Three words, Bou:
Zbigniew Brejinski.
Vey.
Experience? If elected in 2008, Barack Obama will indeed have had more relevant* experience than 23 of our former presidents.
In fact, there is something to be said of Obama’s 8 years in state legislature, since most politicians are above such hard, lower-level work, bypassing that valuable experience for the status of immediate higher office.
But as Bou in #8 so correctly points out, the success or failure of a presidency depends greatly upon the quality and experience of the advisors a President selects. (The failure of this Bush presidency can be more attributed to his advisors than the man himself, despite my low opinion of the man.)
In industry, while it might appear to be desirable for a prospective CEO to have relevant experience within that industry, it is hardly necessary. Nor is it common. The key to successful executive leadership at the top is not experience in that industry. It is to have the keen ability to select and surround oneself with an experienced, energized, and talented team. It is to provide them vision, motivation, and direction. Only a few are capable; most are not. It is a very rare talent. All the experience in the world does not make a good prospective CEO; or a US president.
Interestingly, the most totally experienced president in our history was LBJ, followed closely by Gerald Ford, while Eisenhower and Hoover were two of the least experienced (not counting Ike’s tremendous military bio). There really is no correlation between relevant experience and a subsequent, successful presidency, unfortunately.
Rather than experience, intelligence and the charisma and ability to unite and excite the country, providing leadership, direction, and commonality of purpose seem to be more important. JFK and Ronald Reagan, both having somewhat limited experience still had that charisma and leadership, and they selected talented supporting staffs [except for McNamara] that together were able to move this country forward with a purpose.
Without getting into other details, I find it quite surprising to see such a similar energizing of the electorate by Obama, similar to what I have seen in past defining elections that led to successful presidencies. If it lasts and is substantive, it is to me promising. Certainly, we need some real and uncommon leadership now, for our many problems have been festering and building too long without resolution.
        (* Relevant experience being cumulative and combined years as either a state governor, in US Congress, state legislature, or as US Vice President, and excluding any former military service)
All the political world that I truly care about – the part about fighting and winning the nation’s wars…
All the more reason to vote McCain!
Going to take a little bite out of this apple, not by going after you Lex, or some the comments folks have made, but just by the old reality check of data, and facts that neither you or I would argue about:
• The Defense Department budget is estimated to be about 27 percent of our government expenditures. This does not include (1) CIA and Covert Services, (2) The Veteran Administration Health Care costs, (3) Military Aid to foreign entities.
• What we pay for defense is greater than all countries in the world combined.
• The number of bases we maintain in foreign countries is in the range of 800+.
• Our patriotic polls (including some Dems) are trumpeting that to protect us, we need to increase the Armed Forces by 100,00 men and women.
Ah yes, as the big man (the one with the cigar, microphone, and drug habit) said: Big government is the problem. And guess what, he is right!!!
Lets face it, trumpet the inequity of the Death Tax (anybody with an inheritance of greater then 5 million clams has to pay taxes) as much as you want, but somebody has to pay for this insanity. It’s called the Kids Tax, for your kids and mine, for your grandchildren and mine, who will pay for the debt we are so gaily running up daily…
Loved your Edwards video, raw meat. But what you have to understand that behind the Obama fluff there is a group of people who are really ticked off:
http://www.correntewire.com/obama_stump_speech_strategy_of_conciliation_considered_harmful
When I started this post, Fliterman was no where to be found. I follow his most recent post, and bow to his superior pen.
Obama makes me want to puke. Punahoe, Oxy, Columbia, and last but not least, Havad. Another elitist from Havad or Yale will just about kill me. Sorry, bros, Obama is whiter than I am. His affected accent – a recent, on again, off again aquisition – sums up the ‘man’.
Sure, Lex, we’ll survive, but it’s so depressing. I voted for Jimma Carter, so I am well aware of the awesome damage the American idiocracy can inflict on itself. Fliterman, you gonna hate your youthful clueless self when you get to be my age, I guarantee – “intelligence and the charisma and ability to unite and excite the country” my a55.
Democracy, being the second-finest* form of government around, means rule by the people, and that means about half the time, the other guy gets to win.
I think that’s why I don’t fear Obama, even if I disagree with him. He will implement policies I consider ill-considered, or perhaps even repugnant. However, he will do so as an expression of the will of the people, and more specifically, as the will of the half of the electorate that hasn’t had their say these last seven years.
I can’t say I’ll be elated, but this is part of the system. Whoever wins, four years later I’ll have a second shot at making my voice heard.
From what I can tell, Obama believes, as I do, that the government should reflect the will of the people. I disagree with him on policy, and think he is a man of honor.
HRH? She believes the people should reflect the will of the government. I disagree with her not just on policy, but in principle. I do not believe her stand is honorable.
[*] The greatest form of government being of course Secret Asian Man’s Secret Asian Dictatorship
Cottus #14 – “ Fliterman, you gonna hate your youthful clueless self when you get to be my age, I guarantee…”
Thank you for the “youthful” appellation…. but not so much for the “clueless” one. Contrary to your forecast, I do try not to hate – neither others nor myself.
Furthermore, while I do not presume to guess your age or political acumen, I can assure you that I am old enough (experienced and broadminded enough too) to have worked (ironically) for both Richard Nixon and Bobbie Kennedy in their presidential campaigns in the ’60’s.
“… intelligence and the charisma and ability to unite and excite the country” my a55.”
If you are at least as old as I am, I suspect then you too would have witnessed President Kennedy’s incredible 10-year challenge to put a man on the moon, or President Reagan’s demand to “tear down this wall, ” to name only two memorable examples. Indeed, both limited experienced presidents did many things to excite and unite the country, and to keep it safe…. Despite your ‘a55′ backside.
Our Paul #13 – Thank you for the kind words, but I am afraid they are undeserved. Nevertheless, we are on the same page. May I add to the Defense budget items you have mentioned,….. the off-DoD budget supplementary bills to finance our two wars, Homeland Security, and atomic energy defense expenditures that are not even included in the Defense budget. Sooner or later, as you indicate, these accumulating debts will have to be paid, regardless who resides on Pennsylvania Ave. The buck is being passed, and it will be most painful for our children or their children to repay, and harmful to our country.
…the success or failure of a presidency depends greatly upon the quality and experience of the advisors a President selects.
Which is why, if push were to come to shove, I’d favor Obama over the alternative: the return of such luminaries like Sandy Burger, Maddy Albright, and [shudder] possibly even Janet Reno.
And then there’s this from the former Chief Philanderer and presumptive First Groper: “I’d Sit in on Hillary’s Cabinet Meetings…” He appends “only if asked,” but you’d have to be a fool to believe that the “asking” wouldn’t happen.
Can that shove include all the Dem candidates – and continue over the edge until they are gone? Cuz not one of them even gets my cup to half full with confidence and peace.
Thompson, period.
Obama will bring these sorts of “values” to the job… I’d rather have looney Hilly. At least then we can count on someone trying to revoke her birth certificate.
And talk about uniting the Republican party, morons that they may all be. That would certainly do it.
While I’m not OK with any Democrat becoming the President, I’m pretty convinced it’s the kind of shot in the arm the country needs.
Sounds like Lex has lowered expectations and is ready to accept a smooth talking Ivy educated lawyer with one tour under his belt. While I acknowledge his appeal and today’s news he ain’t my cup o’tea.
This whole ‘08 cycle is just now starting to show up on my radar. I promised myself I wouldn’t waste resources (mental & physical early).
Got shoot the snakes closest to the feet though …
I am pleased to see the cannibals eating each other on the Dim side. Personally, I couldn’t be happier seeing the Clinton machine coming apart before my eyes. Snake 1.
What about Obama? OK we’ve heard this “change B.S.” before…… Remember Dean? Is it enough to get him elected? Methinks not.
Up front, I’ll admit, that right now I can be broken down into a one issue voter. That issue being security at home and continuing GWOT- in Iraq, in Afghanistan or wherever the bearded barbarians want to stand and fight..
Here’s where K.I.S.S. by B2 can be applied. Fundamentals first I say. The rest of the crap is just that- crap, don’t forget we do have a Democratic majority… In essence, that means the top three-four Repubs are fundamentally acceptable to moi and I’ve got to say that even the Ol’ loose cannon Johnny McCain, CAPT USN ret, sub-par Skyhawk pilot (his own words) is looking more acceptable than most of ‘em…
Today, that is. It’s all a fellini movie.
B2
it’s the kind of shot in the arm the country needs.
Of course, if one misses and instead takes a shot in the foot, well….
The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the – Web Reconnaissance for 01/08/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.
Well, Fliterman, I stand corrected. I generally assume that the naive, idealistic and generally clueless are that way because they are young. Me bad. I am reminded of ancient cockroaches frozen in amber. To be able to call up idealistic images of JFK after Flic and Flac, the bay of Pigs and fun and games in certain Chicago voting precincts is quite beyond me. He did lower taxes to stimulate the economy, though. Probably a concept best left unremarked.
Oh I have no doubt that Obama has the potential to galvanize the rabble. It is the nature of man to constantly reinvent the wheel, dysfunctional as as those seemingly new, actually old, wheels often are, for there is a fresh new sucker turning voting age every minute, to compound two trite cliches.
“All the political world that I truly care about – the part about fighting and winning the nation’s wars – can be read between the lines of those two sentences. Everything else is commentary.”
That said a lot to me too, Lex. I hate politics. I despise all the candidates, some more than others, but all are equally worthless in my world. (Like they way I channel Lee Ermey?)
But a recognition of facts on the ground and the ability of Command and Duty to overcome anything a politician puts in the military’s way of mission accomplishment, plus the tremendous ability of military Men to bear the most complex and difficult burdens, and especially the Young Men who shoulder the hardest burdens, stand higher than all the rest of the qualities of outstanding Leadership in my book.
Subsunk