In the LA Times Max Boot and Bing West celebrate the tactical success of the surge, but note that the surged brigades – 25% of deployed combat power – are set to return to their home bases by August. But with political rapprochement lagging military success, they see the window of opportunity for a successful outcome in Iraq closing.
Their villain is the Iraqi president himself:
(It) is the government’s ineffectiveness, not the insurgency, that is Iraq’s biggest problem. Maliki has antagonized the Kurds, Sunnis and most of the Shiite parties. In no small part, his conduct stems from a perception that President Bush’s support is assured. Bush goes out of his way to support the embattled prime minister, whether in news conferences or in their regular video teleconferences.
Believing that the White House cannot effectively pressure him without undermining domestic support for its Iraq policy, Maliki has slighted governance while consolidating sectarian control via a vulpine clique.
Boot and West hint at some form of extra-constitutional overthrow of the Maliki regime – a political impossibility that would jeopardize our austere regional gains and undoubtedly throw the country back into a bloody uproar.
Other options remain: The clock ticks on the surge just as it ticks on Mr. Bush’s presidency. It is highly doubtful that the next occupant of the Oval Office will have the same personal dedication to a successful conclusion to our Mesopotamian adventure as did its author. The sooner Mr. Malki and his crew can be made to understand that, the longer they will live and the better it will be for all Iraqis.
It just proves my point. Arabs are worhtless and they wil screw away any opportunity given them. Malaki will eventually be overthrown by the strongman-enabled by the Army we trained-to take over the country. Problem is he will probably be still an Islamic-which means he is of no use to the US.
Throw the Iraqis into the pool and let them sink or swim. The US needs to move on.
On the eve of my departure from Baghdag, I am saddened to see Skippy’s callus bigotry on display.
It does beg the question – once Bush is out of office, no matter who is voted in – will Iraq’s fledgling democracy hold? Without the unquestioning support of the President of the United States, is it possible that they will revert to the only thing they have ever known – dictatorship?
I think that the larger worry is whether Iran will ultimately control Iraq through their surrogate Shiites?
And the second but larger long-term question: Will the U.S. ever get it’s head out and do something about Iran? I mean, they’ve been killing our folks and making trouble for us since the ’70’s and still our government thinks that talking to them and warnings will accomplish something. They won’t. Our sequential Secretaries of State can say that the language used is “strong” and “dire”, but repeated warnings lose meaning incrementally as each one is made unless action will follow – we’ve not shown that we are likely to do anything.
Minor quibble: Maliki is the prime minister, not the president. We decided to ditch the presidential system for Iraq, due to bad experiences with it in the past.