Credo
"Sign on, young man, and sail with me. The stature of our homeland is no more than the measure of ourselves. Our job is to keep her free. Our will is to keep the torch of freedom burning for all. To this solemn purpose we call on the young, the brave, the strong, and the free. Heed my call, Come to the sea. Come Sail with me." -- John Paul Jones
"Pardon him, Theodotus; he is a barbarian, and thinks that the customs of his tribe and island are the laws of nature" --George Bernard Shaw, "Caesar and Cleopatra"
"And those who were seen dancing were thought to be insane by those who could not hear the music."--Friedrich Nietzsche
"A kind Providence has placed in our breasts a hatred of the unjust and cruel, in order that we may preserve ourselves from cruelty and injustice. They who bear cruelty, are accomplices in it. The pretended gentleness which excludes that charitable rancour, produces an indifference which is half an approbation. They never will love where they ought to love, who do not hate where they ought to hate."--Edmund Burke
"Μολὼν λαβέ" -- Leonidas
"Blogito Ergo Sum" -- Neptunus Lex
Maybe I”m just suspicious, HOWEVER, won’t this be a very nice test, not to say “intentional warning” to our enemies of our present capability to knock their stuff outta space if they start getting just a tad bit too feisty in that arena? And maybe it’s no coincidence that satellite ‘failed’ right about now, either? Nah.
Chinese ASAT, meet the SM-3. Just thought you would like to know that we have been paying attention to what you’ve been up to. Did we mention we can move our launch site pretty much anywhere in the world? Please think about that.
Black shoes… “get some” indeed. You know, they’re optional now…
And easier to keep the welts blackened, no muckin’ around with them brown areas!
On the one hand (ha, like I should be talking hands these days…) don’t read too much into this effort insofar as the Chinese are concerned – sometimes a cigar is just a cigar. OTOH, if we hadn’t taken certain controversial steps and decisions 7 years ago, we wouldn’t be talking about an Aegis BMD option. If we can work our way around this damn splint this weekend, there’ll be more along those lines.
GO NAVY!!!
A cigar may be a cigar, except when it is in the oval office……………
Seems to me this more about demonstrating the capability than it is about any risk from the satellite.
Target of opportunity………….
It’s only gonna be a warning/demonstration if we nail it. We miss, and we’ll just be the punchline of a bunch of jokes. Still, if I were in charge, I’d take the shot.
…and with all due respect, there is no way that satellite ‘failed.’ Those things are way too expensive to send up as target practice.
/BeachBum
FWIW, you can’t “shoot down” a satellite; you blow it up and the pieces parts continue in orbit (somewhat disturbed by the missile impact or explosion to be sure). That’s one reason the Chinese pissed everyone off when they blew up one of their own satellites leaving all kinds of space junk in orbit that will be a threat to other satellites.
But if we’re worried about sensitive hi-tech (black) technology getting into the wrong hands—even the size of the telescope/camera mirror would tell a lucky Chicken Little that recovered it a lot—the idea that smaller pieces will burn up more easily when they de-orbit makes sense.
If we have the capability to do this a few days before the satellite re-enters, when it’s down low below other satellite’s orbits, the junk will eventually come down and won’t be a threat to other satellites.
BUT, in the last few days the orbit changes very rapidly. If we can win at the ultimate game of Asteroids, it’ll sure give certain foreign powers with the missiles on the their mind something to else to think about.
Not to mention certain Skippers a much bigger stick—or at least a longer one—to carry.
BB: The satellite, US 193, did in fact fail, shortly after orbital insertion in Dec ‘06. Not only did it lose all comms, it failed to deploy solar panels and main antenna. It’s basically a frozen lump about the size of a double-wide…
Skippy: Operative term –”specially configured SM-3…” SM-3 BlK1/1a just doesn’t have the energy for ASAT work – its meant for the lower altitude (but still exoatmospheric) mid-course intercept of SR-and MRBMs.
-SJS
The Navy will do the work…but the Air Farce will steal the credit.
Bet on it.
All god’s children gotta wonder — do we really need an air force anymore? How about a NASA?
Mike:
Aegis BMD has been (and continues to be) one of the brightest lights in the missile defense program, and it clearly is Navy’s contribution.
-SJS
Blackshoe Aegis BMD that is…
I’ve brought up Rand Simberg’s Transterrestrial Musings from time to time. He also touches on this; he does a good job of discussing the orbital mechanics but doesn’t address the national security standpoint.
I bring this up because I agree that having on-orbit capability to either repair or remove such equipment would be good in general (TV/weather/GPS would affect our economy/quality of life directly), as well as protect our classified equipment, and not require us to show just how far we can reach out to touch someone.
It’s disappointing that neither NASA nor the USAF seem likely to provide that capability.
SteelJaw,
Oh, I agree with you completely on the details of US 193. I put ‘failed’ in quotes because I was responding to STEVEC, who wrote ‘failed,’ and wondered if it wasn’t a coincidence that the satellite went bad, implying that we planned the whole scheme so we would have an excuse to shoot at it. I agree, no way did we accidently on purpose have it go sideways to create an opportunity for a live test.
/BeachBum
From a technical POV, I find it very interesting that one could hit an orbiting satellite with current equipment. It cancels the argument from anti-ABM types that it “won’t work even if we tried, ’cause SDI was a Hollywood phoney.”
What this test would prove is that using a ballistic missile against the US (and our allies?), of any range or size capability, ever, is a Really Bad Idea. Sudden intercontinental jackassery won’t pay off for an opponent, and to my knowledge our national policy is still to retaliate in kind.
(I ought to clarify; I don’t claim any specialized knowledge on national policy in the event of IC/SLBM launch against us. It’s just been the de-facto policy throughout the cold war, that as far as I know is still in effect.)
Blacksmith:
The “won’t work” crowd was left at the station a long time ago. Last year alone we racked up 10 successful tests against short, medium and yes, intercontinental-ranged ballistic missile targets from land- and sea-based shooters. SM-3 led the way with six successful intercepts including one test against two simultaneous SCUD-type launches and another with a SCUD and cruise missle shot against the firing Aegis platform. THAAD came back from a near death experience some few years back with three successful intercepts and inSeptember, a long-range interceptor launched from Vandenberg AFB intercepted an ICBM class target launched from Alaska. All in 2007 alone. More shots and more complex scenarios in store for ‘08 as well. So yea, while the nay sayers are still contemplating their navels back at the station, the threat marches on but so does testing and deployment. BTW, did you know we have 24 interceptors on alert as this is written? Doesn’t get much play in the press….
SJS
Opportunity to excel. The bar has been set.
Don’t fug it up Navy. (fingers crossed)
b2
A guy named “Skunk” Baxter was on Bill Bennett this AM. Seems he is a ABM expert…but you may remember him better from his Doobie Brothers days…He got interested years ago and did some writing after his self-initiated studies and got noticed. Now he seems to be in the Red Cell analysis side and says we’re doing quite well in this regard.
Steeljaw,
You seem to be somewhat knowledgeable on the SM-3. Just curious as to what you do for a living?
See http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/23166344/ for some details from a friend who worked in Shuttle Control.
Dunno if this hit the wires or not:
Q&A: Destroying a broken spy satellite
What will happen when missiles are fired from Navy cruiser
By James Oberg, NBC News space analyst // Special to MSNBC
updated 1:41 p.m. CT, Thurs., Feb. 14, 2008
What will they use to shoot at and destroy the satellite?
An AEGIS-class cruiser will fire modified SM-3 missiles from a position northwest of Hawaii, as the satellite approaches on a directly overhead path.
What was this satellite doing, and why is it falling?
The satellite was launched 14 months ago to test a new generation of optical and radar reconnaissance sensors, but its control computer failed almost immediately.
What will it look like? Will there be a big spectacle?
After the initial launch, the missile warheads will maneuver by firing steering rocket pulses appearing as sideways flashes from its main body, which will be watched on telescope trackers onboard the launch ship. A flare of light will mark a successful intercept and the bright target blip may turn to a cloud of smaller blips.
Will we be able to see anything from Earth?
As the satellite disintegrates from the impact, the unused rocket fuel should make an expanding cloud in the sky that might be visible from Hawaii, depending on whether or not it is day or night. The cloud may persist for 20-30 minutes as it orbits Earth at 5 miles per second.
What potential dangers or risks are involved?
Planners must make certain that other objects are not in the line of fire, although the rocket’s limited altitude capability should keep it well short of valuable spacecraft such as the international space station.
What happens to the debris?
The debris will burn up in days or weeks, because of the target’s very low altitude and because small fragments are much more severely slowed down by air drag than large intact objects.
Why can’t they just let the satellite fall from orbit naturally?
Pieces from satellites of this size tend to reach the ground, but predicting where is impossible. Heavy objects have a very slight chance of hitting somebody, and unused rocket fuel might conceivably contaminate small areas. Worst of all, top secret hardware such as sensor equipment or the control computer’s memory unit might be recovered and be exploited by hostile intelligence services.
Can the United States do this unilaterally?
Yes, there are no legal sanctions on any nation doing anything it wants to its own property in space. In fact, since each nation is responsible for damage caused by any of its space objects, it can be argued that the United States is obligated by international law to do something like this.
Will this action anger any other countries?
The usual suspects, both overseas and domestically. The Russians might feel compelled to dust off their own ground-launched and air-launched anti-satellite weapons or use a standard anti-missile missile from their test rangein Kazakhstan. China can’t complain, but North Korea and Iran will. In the United States, groups lobbying against U.S. ’space weaponziation’ will see it as proof the United States wants to build — or secretly, already has built — such weapons all along. But all this noise may focus attention on the wider issue of weapons in space (not Earth-launched weapons against space targets).
How is this different from China’s satellite shootdown last year?
In technical terms, it’s not very different, although the Chinese rocket reached a lot farther into space than the U.S. system is capable of. In ethical terms, the U.S. action is supposedly a remedial measure taken to enhance safety, while the Chinese action looked a lot more like a weapons test to threaten other countries. The U.S. rocket to be used does not appear to be even capable of reaching operational satellites of other nations.
I’ll bet it sux to be an FC on the USS Lake Erie right now. “I don’t want you to feel any pressure-but if we miss this putt, we lose the match.”
D3moN:
More perspective on the subject here.
Let’s just say that it really is rocket science and leave it at that for now
-SJS
When I was a bandsman, we had a super-excellent drum major. He could strut perfectly out in front, toss that big heavy baton into the air with it doing about 40 rpm, and then reach up and catch it without looking. In public, in front of evverbody.
This seems like that, in a way.
Tailspin,
Close.
1. The fuel (aka “Hydrozine” aka “Hypergolics”) is frozen right now. So if’n we blow up the box that holds it, it will probably stay frozen and not make the pretty cloud you allude to.
2. They won’t let it fall to the ground “naturally” because it would fall in one big piece. It’s got itself a titanium skin, and wouldn’t much break up.
3. As far as “no objects in the line of fire”, guess what they are waiting for right now? (The shootdown window opened today) Yeah, for the short bus (aka the shuttle) to land. Want to make sure that if the shuttle happens to blow up on re-entry that the “Troofers” don’t have any ammo to use. (Remember Pierre Salinger and the Navy shooting down the TWA flight?) So they won’t pull the trigger until STS is on the ground.
Nose
Say, what’s the orbit’s inclination? If they do it near FL I might be able to see some of it. Oh, Hydrazine ain’t hypergolic with its self, it’s a monopropellant, like a high explosive, y’know? It’ll get good and hot on the way in, whether dispersed or not. But, yeah, breaking the thing into smaller chunks will help give it a worse (in this case better) sectional density and ballistic coefficient.
JTG:
Here’s the orbital data for US 193:
The orbit data is extracted from the following two-line orbital elements,
1 29651U 06057A 08042.43405801 .00185000 00000-0 27300-3 0 02
2 29651 58.5097 69.5541 0000897 125.0164 34.9836 16.04407073 09
Epoch (UTC): 10:25:03 AM, Monday, February 11, 2008
Eccentricity: 0.0000897
Inclination: 58.5097°
Perigee Height: 261 km
Apogee Height: 263 km
Right Ascension of Ascending Node: 69.5541°
Argument of Perigee: 125.0164°
Revolutions per Day: 16.04407073
Mean Anomaly at Epoch: 234.9836°
Orbit Number at Epoch: 0
Heavens Above has a special page devoted to US 193. Registration is free…
-SJS
Reentry would melt the N2H4 ice. I was curious about the melting point, and it’s about the same as water. And it’s really nasty stuff as a gas.
Even in low concentrations it irritates the throat and lungs, and in higher levels it causes tremors and convulsions. It’s water soluble and can be abosrbed through your skin causing neurological problems, and can cause liver, kidney and reproductive organ damage. All that said, it’s so reactive (it’s a monopropellent and hypergolic, as Nose points out, so no ignition source is required) any debris will probably be clean, but Shuttle Columbia debris apparently was contaminated with the monomethyl form of hydrazine (CH3NHNH2) that’s used with nitrogen tetroxide in the thrusters.
BTW, because the stuff is easy to store it was used as propellent on the Me-163 Komet back in the ’40s, Voyager 1 and 2 used it, and so do Soyuz and Titan. It’s one reason astronauts don’t pile out of the Shuttle after landing—the trucks unload any that’s left over in the thrusters and sniff to make sure there isn’t any in the air.
As for orbit info, visit http://www.heavens-above.com/usa193.aspx. Besides details on USA-193 they offer a nice chart of daily visible satellite passes. In olden days they’d have proclaimed you the Royal Wizard if you could predict ’shooting stars.’ The way things are going it may come to that again. See http://tinyurl.com/2ygj9c .
Hey SJS-
One of the guys heavily involved in the “corrective action” is an old Seabat. (Helium)
I’m hearing really interesting (but alas, unclass) stuff from him.
N
There are no “old” Seabats…….just more mature Seabats-thank you very much.
“Wardroom full of refugees from a CAAC ward!”
-As Ward Cooper used to say.
I predict the following sequence for the intercept:
Shoot-Look-Miss……
Shoot -Look- Miss again…..
Wave-off third shot……
Watch satellite reenter……….
Nose:
Couple of ex-Bats and ex-Steeljaws working the corrective action…
-SJS
For those that think this is an excuse to show off to China, ask yourself the question: If the US and China decide to start shooting down each others satellites, who has more to lose?
Plus, as has been pointed out, the SM-3 doesn’t have the legs to reach satellites in their operational orbit.