About the best you can say about the US method of choosing candidates for national elections is that the primaries are grueling endurance contest for the country’s most important job. You have to sell your message to people willing to pay for the air time, organize and run a coherent campaign, keep various and sundry gremlins in their associated boxes and ward off the drearily predictably personal blows of those who do not gracefully acknowledge your rectitude. And, oh yeah, get people to vote for you.
It ain’t perfect, but as a testing ground for the strains and stresses of occupying the Oval Office, the system does have its merits.
If – as seems growingly likely – HRH ends up bowing out of the presidential race by popular demand this week it appears that Republic might have narrowly dodged a bullet. She differs little from Obama on policy, leading partisans to choose between them based personality – no test – and effectiveness.
She’s touted her longer term in the US Senate as a distinguishing characteristic for the latter, as well as all that travelling around the world back when Bubba was El Supremo. But for every plus in that side of the ledger there were significant, if not easily measurable negatives.
Everyone always wanted to know what would happen when Bubba’s relentless energy found itself back inside 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue without a formal portfolio. Would President Hillary be able to keep the man on his leash?
For executive experience, she ran Bubba’s health care debacle for him, kicking off the 15-year long health care “crisis” that we’ve passively endured ever since. In fact, Berkeley economics professor Brad DeLong – who worked on the first lady’s health care program with her back in 1993, and cannot remotely be mistaken for a member of the Vast Right Wing Conspiracy¬© – had this to say about the experience:
My two cents’ worth–and I think it is the two cents’ worth of everybody who worked for the Clinton Administration health care reform effort of 1993-1994–is that Hillary Rodham Clinton needs to be kept very far away from the White House for the rest of her life. Heading up health-care reform was the only major administrative job she has ever tried to do. And she was a complete flop at it. She had neither the grasp of policy substance, the managerial skills, nor the political smarts to do the job she was then given. And she wasn’t smart enough to realize that she was in over her head and had to get out of the Health Care Czar role quickly.
“So when senior members of the economic team said that key senators like Daniel Patrick Moynihan would have this-and-that objection, she told them they were disloyal. When junior members of the economic team told her that the Congressional Budget Office would say such-and-such, she told them (wrongly) that her conversations with CBO head Robert Reischauer had already fixed that. When long-time senior hill staffers told her that she was making a dreadful mistake by fighting with rather than reaching out to John Breaux and Jim Cooper, she told them that they did not understand the wave of popular political support the bill would generate. And when substantive objections were raised to the plan by analysts calculating the moral hazard and adverse selection pressures it would put on the nation’s health-care system… [ellipses in original]
“Hillary Rodham Clinton has already flopped as a senior administrative official in the executive branch–the equivalent of an Undersecretary. Perhaps she will make a good senator. But there is no reason to think that she would be anything but an abysmal president”
But hey, it’s been a long time, right? People learn, her New York constituents seem pleased with her performance and she’s carefully constructed a record of legislative accomplishment and bipartisan senatorial comity.
Except that if this pre-mortem in the LA Times has any truth in it, DeLong might have been right all along:
As they mapped out a campaign schedule for Bill Clinton, top aides to Hillary Rodham Clinton kept his time short in South Carolina. They were probably going to lose the state, they figured, and they wanted their most powerful surrogate to move on to Georgia, Alabama and other Southern states.
But the former president shelved the plan, according to campaign aides. Day after day he stayed in South Carolina, getting into angry confrontations with the press and others. In the end, Hillary Clinton lost the Jan. 26 vote there by a 2-to-1 margin and saw her standing with African Americans nationwide become strained.
So much for keeping the Big Dog on a leash.
It gets worse – at the executive level, leadership starts in the inner circle and has a lot to do with keeping big egos in line; egos don’t get any bigger than those found in Washington. But with all the finger pointing going inside the HRH campaign, it’s not clear that we can call that a signal strength for the candidate:
Already, some in Clinton’s senior staff are pointing fingers over what went wrong, with some of the blame aimed at Clinton herself. As the race unfolded, neither Clinton nor anyone else resolved the internal power struggles that played out with destructive effect and continue to this day.
Chief strategist and pollster Mark Penn clashed with senior advisor Harold Ickes, former deputy campaign manager Mike Henry and others. Field organizers battled with Clinton’s headquarters in northern Virginia. Campaign themes were rolled out and discarded, reflecting tensions among a staff bitterly divided over what Clinton’s basic message should be.
She’s been counted out before, and might still pull out an upset win after eleven straight losses, sending the primaries into the summer and raising the entertaining spectacle of a brokered convention. The poll margins in both Texas and Ohio – must wins for the Clinton camp – are within the margins of error.
But it’s an uphill climb for the once “inevitable” candidate.
…her New York constituents seem pleased with her performance…
We do?
While it’s a given I’ll not vote for either of the Democrat candidates…whomever gets the nomination… it’s always been my thought that Clinton would be preferable to Obama, mainly because she’s more of a hawk than he will ever be. When one adds in the fact that BO is on the record as being willing to “talk” with the likes of A-jad, Chavez, and now Castro, with few if any preconditions… well… that, to me, is a frickin’ fatal flaw.
I don’t like Hillary, never have. But she is definitely the lesser of two evils in my book. YMMV.
I gotta tell you, though. I’m thinkin’ it’s gonna get WORSE than ugly with Obama as the “chosen one”. It will tear this country apart in ways worse than we’ve seen in our lifetimes.
But then again, that is just MHO.
not me not either no how no way either, Paul.
i must not have answered the phone when they were taking that particular poll.
You are always winning when Hillary is losing……….
Actually I think if you look at it, the experience arguement only makes sense if you are convinced that electorate is really looking hard at that and not letting other emotions get in the way.
Which is why the whole -RINO thing by the Mc Cain haters may be troubling if Obama gets the nod. There is a guy on my Citadel BBS who says he will not ever vote for McCain. He’s really strong willed about it.
Which probably is the only way a big enough hole would be made for a Dem to win.
Paul wrote: “…her New York constituents seem pleased with her performance…
We do?”
And MajMike was in agreement.
Wellllll, boys, viewing this matter from the perspective of a Californian, she did get reelected, and that was despite the fact that everyone not brain dead knew she was lying through her bad teeth when, having been asked about serving her full term, she said that she hadn’t thought about running for President. That would appear to me to mean that a heck of lot of New Yawkers thought she was just swell. And I’d say something negative about New York except that my state has its current crop of idiot Senatorettes as well.
Dodging the bullet? Here’s another way to look at it: HRC has high negatives and Independents would be more likely to go to McCain. Even if she won, she’d have a tough time governing if the Republicans can hold 42 or 43 seats in the Senate. Republicans on the Hill would hunker down with a President HRC.
If Obama is the nominee, he’s got a solid shot at winnning. More importantly, it’s likely he could help sweep with coattails some congressional and Senate candidates into office who might not have had a shot. He has a better chance to get a filibuster proof Senate. He has low negatives. He could be the reverse of the Reagan Revolution.
Skippy: You should just go on your Citadel BBS and tell the poster who says he won’t ever vote for McCain that there are a lot of us who agree and that we find McCain to be an odious candidate. In fact, he’s the worst choice OTHER THAN THE TWO SOCIALISTS THE DEMS WANT TO ELECT. So there is a moral delemma being given to us, and we have to choose, in Captain Aubrey’s immortal words: “the lesser of two weevils.”
I’m pretty skeptical of all of the remaining candidates, hell, it’s almost downright fear and loathing. Whomever does end up in the grand abode at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave, I hope that they take a long hard look at our future economy and make priorties to fix it now. BO scares me, HRC scares me a bit less, but then there is the loathing. McCain seems the best pick of a mediocre at best lot, akin to the used car lot Toad wandered past in American Graffiti. ‘Cept it’s me trying to break free from the salesman hawking the remaining POTUS candidates… “here’s a real beauty, and it can be yours for 48 low monthly payments.”. For Gods sake, can’t we get a real candidate?
“And I’d say something negative about New York except that my state has its current crop of idiot Senatorettes as well.”
I’ll second that SteveC. It’s a love-hate relationship for me, I love it here, but, I hate all the kooks!
Lee, at al,
I am at the point where I may well not bother to vote at all. I am sick to death of having to vote AGAINST somebody, rather than FOR someone.
I spent quite a few years in the service of my country, as did many here. I will bear the scars of that service for the rest of my life, and I bear no grudge against anyone or anything because of that. it is what it is.
Yet, I would like to have the opportunity to be more than a statistic, or a meat-based ATM. I would like to have the opportunity to actually participate in selecting a candidate, rather than supporting the one that most closely meets my requirements, from a list given to me by folks who don’t want me to actuall have, you know, a REAL say in the process.
I do feel disenfranchised. I very much feel left out of it all, because the only way anyone can actually run for an office that counts, can help select those who will run, is by having scads of money and/or influence and knowing all the right people.
John McCain? I loath the man and evrything about him. I don’t trust him as far as I can throw him, and he is one of the very last i would pick to defend our Constitution, ;et alone manage our nation, since I know full well his disregard for the Bill of Rights.
His only advantage, and I mean ONLY, is that his negatives are marginally better than HRH’s or BHO’s.
I am truly in a moral quandry, because I believe myself to be an honorable man, and if I were to vote for that Angry man from Arizona, I simply do not know how i could ever wash the stain out of my soul.
I think I’ll start laying is a supply of booze and guns, and maybe put a lawyer on retainer, because I suspect we’ll all be shortly needing all three regardless of who gets elected.
I’ve got a bottle of Cuervo Black and a case of Corona on the counter. Time to get a glass, and put on some Brooks & Dunn…..
Since New Yorkers elected her twice, yes, you (Generic) New Yorkers must have been pleased with her performance.
Tim- I feel your pain, brother. Only difference is our choice of elixers, I’m more a JW Black label kinda guy. But, either way, it does dull the senses and numb the mind in a fashion which makes this political quandry at least seem palatable on the surface. Of course, that may just be last nights drive through meal coming back up! Of course, Ronnie and Kix do at least drown out the lies…
As much as I hope that the Clinton dynasty is soon truncated, the rise of Obama’s emotionally appealing sweet nothings are seducing the inattentive masses.
Obama has a very real chance of winning, given the historic lack of interest or knowledge among most voters.
That scares me!
McCain merely disgusts me for his policies, so I guess he’s got my vote, but only because either of the donkeycrats is far worse.
We deserve better!
I never voted for her. Take a look at the demographics of NY State; outside of the five boroughs of NYC, Ny state has a tendency to be more “red” than “blue.” The city elected her, which isn’t a surprise. By the way, people here know she’s a phony, but she’s managed to avoid doing anything nasty as a senator.
She was mostly elected due to general incompetence on the part of the GOP here in New York, rather than any great love for her.
The freightening thing about Obama is that if elected, the nation would be essentially giving him a blank check to do whatever he wants… or at least that’s how he would portray it. He has very carefully not talked about his policies in specific terms. Therefore, we are not electing him based on agreement with his policies, we would be electing him based on “hope” and “change”. Change is only good if it’s change in the right direction.
As far as HRH… she scears me only slightly less than Obama, and that’s just because we know what kind of idiot she is.
McCain… I detest his policies, but at least he’ll credibly fight the war.
Jim C
Regarding us New Yawkers and our junior senator, the first time she ran, she was running against Rudy, who dropped out due to prostate troubles. The Republicans put up Rick Lazio in his stead. If you just said “Who?” so did everyone else in NY when we heard the name. She got elected by default.
The second time around, her opponents were equally dismal. First off, Westchester County DA Jeanine Pirro, who’s husband had some problems with the law and who was also geographically challenged when it came to what states border western NY, decided she would be better at being a state’s attorney general (lost that one too). Then, the republican ticket had another nobody, John Spencer, who’s claim to fame was being the Mayor of Yonkers. It’s almost like they wanted to loose.
She got re-elected by a huge margin because she ran against (crickets chirping)
Shipmates,
I agree that JM’s over-riding plus is his ability to clearly see the threats we face as a nation from Islamo-Fascists, and other assorted ne’er-do-wells. In that regard, I can support him. But still and all, I have such a hard time pulling the trigger on this one.
I once swore an oath to do the right thing for my country, but these folks seem to try so very hard to make that such a difficult choice.
I understand a little of what Solomon faced with the two women and one baby…..
Sigh…….
New York constituents?
I am minded of the very old black lady from Iowa, in Stephen King’s novel, “The Stand”, who opined that the only things dumber than broody hens are New York Democrats.
I voted for McCain. He is not afraid to take a principled, if unpopular, stand on issues that I believe are among the most important to the future of our nation, including the notion that winning the war might just be important. Though I do not agree with every choice he has made, I agree with the vast majority.
I believe that he would be a good president, and that he has the capacity, and may very well have the opportunity, to be a great one. His rejection by so many of the conservative right dismays me – not because I don’t understand their concerns, but because there is so much at stake in this election.
McCain is merely the best of a mediocre set of choices. I can’t beleive that in all the good people we have in this country, this is the best we can come up with. We’ve been swept up amidst the herd, and we’re all heading for the precipice, with no real way of escaping the inevitable.
the equation is extremely simple. Do you want a nutcase whacko or do you want someone who has some integrity? what the f is there to wonder about that? You either live in the world or you want a fantasy. Fantasy in these days is f’ing stupid. Because if this election goes for the left, many of my buddies are burned. no #$%^. Don’t do it. Do not not vote for the candidate who holds the last hope in this election for maintaining the fight. I have pledged to give my life for this country. I don’t give a rat’s ass about what happens to me. What’s right is right and you all f’ing know it. Do the right thing
AW1 Tim,
Don’t mistake my being willing to pull the lever for McCain as enthusiasm. Juan McCain has poked conservatives in the eyes too many times for me to be enthusiastic about voting for him (McCain-Feingold, Amnesty, gang of 14, and on, and on). However, at least he (hopefully) won’t get us killed. Obama and HRH might.
Jim C
One thing that has baffled me in this election is J.M. He’s a former naval aviator,served time as a POW, by all accounts he’s an honorable man who will do the principled thing. Apparently his principles aren’t quite the same as mine, but then neither of his opponents seem to have principles so that’s kind of a wash.
The question I have is, is J.M.’s military record enough to give him the edge over the Democratic nominees? Because he sure knows foreign policy, albeit at the tip of the spear rather than in the darkened cloakrooms, and he seems a man of honor, though his thought of honor and mine differ a bit on specific legislation.
To my mind he’s the lesser of three evils. I just want to know how a man of honor, a man who swore an oath to the Constitution, could so easily side-step it with the legislation that bears his name.
Of the three, he’s better than the other two, but how does he justify his legislation against his honor?
– Max
As I have written here, before, “Embrace the Suck! McCain in 2008!”
Or, as someone else has written, “I love my country more than I hate John McCain!”
If FL allowed actual write-in votes, I might go for Cthulhu.
I really don’t get it. Who does McCain have to be-Joseph Stalin?
The whole opposition to him is based on whining in my humble opinion. Do I agree with him on every thing-especially the war-no I do not.
But all of this talk about how bad he is ignores the fact the so-called superstars of the social conservatives movement just did not get it done. Or it also could be that there are more of me-for whom the message does not resonate-than the other faction wishes to realize.
Fred Thompson and the rest-should have won some primaries. Fred Thompson could not be bothered to do so.
McCain-Feingold? Gang of 14? Immigration? He’s simply taken the side of the reasonable man if you ask me. What is so wrong with that?
Now allowing yourself to be endorsed by Pastor Hagee-that is something else entirely. Not only is Hagee biblically incorrect-he’s wrong historically too. If there was one concern I have about McCain is that every so often his advisers convince him he has to cater to guys like him.
Besides if Pastor Hagee is to be believed we don’t have to worry about McCain being President too long- the world will have ended by 2012.
We know where you stand Skippy- firmly in the middle as usual! A daring position. Now don’t get all huffy please. ; -)
Sure, like most of us, I can’t wait to sing, “Ding-dong the witch is dead” but this “Witch of the Ozarks” needs a little more Obama-light water tossed on her yet!
Today will be interesting. Hill may live. Actually I hope they slug it out a few more months and continue to entertain me with their cat fighting. Of course I heard Rush L. is saying the same thing I was saying this last fall. Let ‘em eat each other…
After they fight it out McCain can step in and play adult.
It’s all a Fellini movie without subtitles!
b2
I may never feel clean again, but I voted for Hitlary this morning (Ohio). My rationale is that I want to prolong the Democrat infighting so that Obama will expend resources and lose platform time before confronting McCain. Certainly an arguable theory, but hey, at least this time I have a reason to vote FOR somebody.
Skippy-san,
You write –
McCain-Feingold? Gang of 14? Immigration? He’s simply taken the side of the reasonable man if you ask me. What is so wrong with that?
As a social conservative I couldn’t agree more, and it is not social conservatives who are after McCain right now as far as I can tell, but more the punditocracy as well as people who can’t handle our dependence on cheap Lationo labor. I wish we would get control of the borders just on principal, and establish a guest-worker program that regulated migrant labor (and punished employers hiring illegals) but I don’t think it is the defining issue. McCain wants to defend the country, wont screw the pooch on social issues and likely doesn’t have big ideas on health care, economic issues, etc. What’s not to love?
And Pastor Hagee is not the sine qua non of social conservatism, if anything, his anti-Catholicism is not a good thing for the coalition.
Newt Gingrich made an observation that Republicans should be careful what they wish for in voting in the other sides primaries-it may come back to haunt them down the road.
Well as a Ohioian, I am glad Primary day is here!
The last few days its been Hillary, Obama and even McCain either on the phone, radio or TV.
I saw McCain last Monday in person and felt better about coloring in my circle for him on my ballot!
As a piece of advice, don’t wait up for the Ohio vote count it maybe into the wee hours of the morning before Cleveland Metro votes are counted.
At present that is more the local story here and being glossed over by the networks! But, if what is anticpated happens it won’t be a local story anymore!
I considered sitting this one out, but then I ran across this quote, which I liked well enough to add it to my blog:
“If you are part of a society that votes, then do so. There may be no candidates and no measures you want to vote for, but there are certain to be ones you want to vote against. In case of doubt, vote against. By this rule you will rarely go wrong.”
“If this is too blind for your taste, consult some well-meaning fool (there is always one around) and ask his advice. Then vote the other way. This enables you to be a good citizen (if such is your wish) without spending the enormous amount of time on it that truly intelligent exercise of franchise requires.” — Robert Heinlein
The well-meaning fool chanted “Yes We Can! Yes We Can! Yes We Can!”
I replied “The Hell You Will! The Hell You Will! The Hell You Will!” and started the process of resigning myself to the idea of President McCain. I have, still, moments of weakness, but the process continues. I get periodic help from Mr. Rezko and Mr. Nafta, but for the most part it’s hard going.
I’ll get there, though, I will get there.
How can anyone on the Republican side be happy with McCain when we know that he considered jumping to the Democrats after 2000? How can you be happy with a guy who happily endorsed John Kerry (and reportedly tried to get a slot as his VP) as a good candidate for President, and did the same with “his good friend” Hillary?
It matters that he sabotaged strategies the Republicans had to end Democrat gridlock in the Senate on judges. He’s shown himself to be erratic and disloyal at times, and he’s been someone the party could not depend upon to support key legislation – he voted against the tax cuts.
John McCain has been a pain in the butt of his party. But he might also be the luckiest presidential candidate of all time to have been running against such a poor class of Republican candidates and against out and out socialists on the Dem side. Other than that, I would not cross the street to put him out if he was on fire.
She was mostly elected due to general incompetence on the part of the GOP here in New York, ….
Substitute “He” for “She”, “Illinois” for “New York” and “elected entirely” for “mostly elected” and you have the Sen. Obama scenario in a nutshell.
The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the – Web Reconnaissance for 03/04/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.
SteveC,
Being a senator a long time sucks. One builds a record. Kerry had one and so does McCain, no doubt.
However, re “Other than that, I would not cross the street to put him out if he was on fire”.
I would because he is one of those men who has gone throught the ordeal of the Hanoi Hilton which elevates him, IMV, to a status beyond regular mortals and especially politicians.
Lest we forget this political season. You wouldn’t want to appear Gloria Steinem-ish would ya?
b2
I personally cut John McCain a mountain of slack for his time in NVN… and as the lesser of three weevils he will get my vote in November…
Hey I can hold my nose with the best of them for the next four years …after all he can’t be any worse than that other USNA alum… Jimmy Carter…can he ? Best
At least Mc Cain can’t give away America’s greatest civil engineering triumph-Jimmy Carter did that for him.
Speaking of never forgiving a politician-I will never forgive Carter for the Panama Canal giveaway.
Skippy,
HEY! We agree on something else! I’ll not forget having to draw lots amongst the flight crews for which 2 crews got to drop a warshot torpedo on the range for aquadron quals. Every crew was supposed to qual with a warchot, but Carter so screwed the poocj that we were reduced to one warshot for every 5 crews.
They were long and sorry times for the Navy, and that coming under the leadership of a former Navy Officer….. sigh.
Well, he was a bubblehead, Tim. Maybe he heard the old adage about ‘a kill is a kill’.
It matters that he sabotaged strategies the Republicans had to end Democrat gridlock in the Senate on judges.
Which we may in the long run end up thanking him for. Potential SCOTUS appointments from either Borat or Hillary without any hope of blocking them in a minority Senate give me shivers.
So, who does he need to have for Veep? I mean, he’s kinda old, and beat-up, and hot-tempered,…