Depending on who you trust, everything is all going to hell in Iraq because of the fighting in Basra and the strike/rioting in Sadr City, or everything is unfolding as it must in order for the Iraqi state to own a monopoly on organized violence – a principal characteristic of national sovereignty. Basra has become the latest magic mirror: People see in the current violence what they want to see.
Jules has the roundup, as well as this comment from Major John in situ:
Without going into too much detail РI am close to some of the ops ongoing… This is not a sleazy political move (on the part of Iraqi president al Maliki), this was brought on, in part, by the fed up residents of Basrah who want an end to the militia crap Рkidnappings, violence, etc. Since the IA and the Coalition are pushing AQI further up North and out, the Iraqis figure it is better to confront the problem now, rather than wait for it to get worse.
The fight up North is the fight to run AQI out of Iraq. The fight down South is the fight to see which way Iraq will go once AQI is beaten. I rather like a direction where the elected government of the people is the one with the guns, and the police are on the street – not the Jaish al Mahdi goons.
You want to know what’s really going on? Me too, because frankly, IBTFOOM, and we’ll all know better once the dust settles in the next 72 hours to a week. But the folks who aren’t on scene, and are trying to tell you what’s happening anyway?
They’re telling you what they want to believe. And it’s pretty revealing.
I like this guy’s take on things and I really like the reported Iraqi position – get rid of the problem for good now….don’t mess around and PC the thing until it escapes to cause more trouble another day in another location.
As for the “magic mirror” aspect: Sounds suspiciously like the point of the discussion we had about the wonders of a “free press” a few days ago with Skippy. Not that I want to rehash that – but come on, can’t everyone see that a large part of the media is about selling their vision and winning the debate with no care for winning the victory that people have died to secure? Seems awfully darned apparent from where I sit and type.
IBTFOOM,Gasp!
ICBYST
LOL
IB (I’ll Bite): what the heck do IBTFOOM and ICBYST mean?
I find my mind this week frequently wandering into thoughts of what’s going on over there. Like you said, we’ll know in the next couple days/weeks.
The frustrating thing is, I don’t know who to believe–not just in terms of truthfulness, but in terms of knowledge. The mainstream media reporting on it is an absolute muddle, full of contradiction (within even a single report) and things that just don’t “sound right,” combined with “facts” that reveal nothing. I feel a lot like I did at the beginning of the Iraq war–knowing that the decision had been made and things were beyond my expertise; all I could do was trust that those on the pointy end knew what they were doing.
ICBYST = I can’t believe you said that.
IBTFOOM = It Beats the F*** out of me
Many of the reporters in the MSM are both lazy and lack the drive to research before they pontificate. As an example, David Gregory, of the White House Press Corps who, after Dick Cheney’s friend walked in front of Cheney’s gun when they were hunting together, failed to research the difference between buckshot and birdshot. Birdshot, Mr. Gregory, is what you use when you’re hunting little birds which probably weigh no more than 6-8 ounces, and you don’t want to blow them into smithereens. Buckshot, Mr. Gregory, is what you use when you’re hunting, well, buck deer, which dress out at probably around 200 pounds. As all of you know, the pellets are far different in size.
I know I don’t have to tell you splendid ladies and gentlemen this. You’ve probably forgotten far more about guns of all calibers than this amateur will ever know. But just to be sure the information is easily available even to reporters of low intelligence and even less interest, I Googled both buckshot and birdshot and got a splendid fund of information in less than four minutes.
What does this say about Mr. Gregory? That he’s lazy and doesn’t like to do research. But he expects to win a Pulitzer some day. The sad thing is — he probably will.
Marianne
I don’t know about this…according to the washington post http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/03/27/AR2008032700781.html?hpid=topnews Iraqi units are hanging back and letting the Americans do the hard fighting. Sounds like Groundhog day to me.
Heh, I see Jules included the above link in his summary.
I think the reasons stories vary so much has to do with the vast differences on how things look on the ground depending on where one is standing. That goes for groups as small as military branches (the answer to how well the USAF is doing its job, for example, will be 180 out depending on who in the service you ask), let alone a vast country like Iraq.
Obama-Hillary and the Nancy-Harry-Murth circus are biting at the bit over this. This is the best news they’ve heard in months..They can’t wait to let the dogs out..Probably Sunday on the talking heads. Watch.
b2
I’m afraid what B2 says looks to be unfolding. The news of the 7 day extension may indicate a strategic pause, but afraid it may be exposing wobbly knees. Lets hope the former.
I can tell you it sucks right now to be in Iraq, but overall, we’re not as concerned about it as the media seems to be.
Worst part? It ruined my weekend plans. Alright, that’s not the worst part and I apologize for my flippancy. A couple people have been killed and more injured in the IZ.
We have to wear our body armor for the first time in quite a while, and we have cut out a lot of unnecessary movement.
However, for all the shite raining down out of the sky, it’s remarkably ineffective. It is disrupting some people’s sleep and work habits, but it’s not cripppling the effort by any means. It’s harassment, pure and simple, because even after stockpiling all this time, they have no real ability to strike in any decisive manner. By no means are we on the run- they are. In the end, they can harass us with sproadic mortar and rocket fire until they run out of munitions, and it still won’t change a bloody thing.
I noticed something interesting about the WaPo story linked above; it uses Mahdi army commanders as a source for descriptions of the fighting in Sadr city.
Pardon the snark, but by all means, lets believe what the Mahdi army says about US and Iraqi troop movement… Give me a break.
Besides, I thought it was common knowledge that we were fighting the Mahdi army in Sadr city. What the article doesn’t tell you (and what they won’t tell you because it doesn’t fit the narative that Iraq is falling into chaos) is that we (the US) aren’t fighting down south in Basra. That is an IA operation (we’re giving air support and logistics support from what I’ve read, but that’s it).
Jim C
Well, the Iraqi Army units are calling for U.S. and UK military units to lend direct support in Basra as well. Magic 8 ball says it won’t be long before we’re on the ground there too. How long have coalition troops been gone from there anyway? 7 months?
Regardless of whether the reasons for this sudden military action are “politically motivated” or “fed up residents who want an end to the militia crap” -It is perceptions that matter, and if the Iraqi population at large is under the impression that the U.S. is throwing our lot in with ISCI for the upcoming elections it will not bode well for the future. Something quite similar happened in Lebanon a while back.
I have an Army friend in Iraq now (not living in the Green Zone) and this is his take:
“Meanwhile in ‘normal’ Iraq, Iraqi police are walking off of the job, in some cases merely taking their weapons to the side that they always had loyalty to, MAS. In other parts of Bahgdad, Iraqi Army checkpoints are being overrun by JAM fighters, and ironically this is giving AQI a chance to regroup and refit.”
I’ll just be a sticky booger and say that I think he has a much more deeply vested interest in seeing a “better side of things” than most of us posting here. But he doesn’t. Not at all. It just doesn’t look good from where he is standing.