Depending on who you trust, everything is all going to hell in Iraq because of the fighting in Basra and the strike/rioting in Sadr City, or everything is unfolding as it must in order for the Iraqi state to own a monopoly on organized violence – a principal characteristic of national sovereignty. Basra has become the latest magic mirror: People see in the current violence what they want to see.

Jules has the roundup, as well as this comment from Major John in situ:

Without going into too much detail РI am close to some of the ops ongoing… This is not a sleazy political move (on the part of Iraqi president al Maliki), this was brought on, in part, by the fed up residents of Basrah who want an end to the militia crap Рkidnappings, violence, etc. Since the IA and the Coalition are pushing AQI further up North and out, the Iraqis figure it is better to confront the problem now, rather than wait for it to get worse.

The fight up North is the fight to run AQI out of Iraq. The fight down South is the fight to see which way Iraq will go once AQI is beaten. I rather like a direction where the elected government of the people is the one with the guns, and the police are on the street – not the Jaish al Mahdi goons.

You want to know what’s really going on? Me too, because frankly, IBTFOOM, and we’ll all know better once the dust settles in the next 72 hours to a week. But the folks who aren’t on scene, and are trying to tell you what’s happening anyway?

They’re telling you what they want to believe. And it’s pretty revealing.