Gahlran smells it coming: “The Fleet Positions Itself for War.”
Iran continues to pursue a provocative foreign policy in Iraq and at Natanz. The US NCA is duly provoked. The options left to the US administration are to maintain status quo, compromise, escalate or climb down from the tree and punt to the next administration.
The status quo gets us closer to Iranian nukes, further away from honorable withdrawal from Iraq and kills/maims any number of coalition servicemen there along the way. Not very attractive, but neither are the alternatives.
It is difficult to suss out what common interests we share with Iran worth compromising on, apart from the fact powers behind the Ahmadinejad throne possibly want confrontation even less than we do, with gas running at $4.00 to the gallon. Possibly.
Escalation is nothing like risk free. The Iranians have been preparing for just that contingency ever since 1979 - we only think we’ve seen asymmetric warfare. And attacks within Iran targeting the nuclear program - as apart from the regime or Quds force skull breakers - risk aligning an otherwise disaffected younger generation that has no memory of the shah under the mullahs.
Punting doesn’t seem much like this administration’s style.
Interesting times.
21 responses so far ↓
1
Jessica
// May 8, 2008 at 1:32 pm
Thanks for the great resource Lex. I have had a lot of questions about some things that I just didn’t understand. One being the back to back “Surges” theses ships have been doing. I think being here at home sometimes we (the ones being left behind) get caught up in the emotion of just wanting our family member home and we lose site of the big picture (or in my case I really didn’t know what the bigger picture was). It is easy to get upset and frustrated with the powers that be for what seems like deployment after deployment. When a person is able to put everything into some type of perspective such as this it helps those left behind to get an idea of the big picture and makes sense of everything the best we can even if we don’t like it. Thanks for making my understanding of the “Bigger Picture” a little more clear! It all makes a little more sense to me now!
2
sid
// May 8, 2008 at 2:34 pm
A bit tangential, but joined at the hip…Unlike the usual politico stereotype, this guy tends to deliver on his musings:
Gunfire broke out in downtown Beirut on Thursday after Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said recent government actions amount to “a declaration of open war.”
3
FbL
// May 8, 2008 at 3:10 pm
That was a fascinating article. I’m hoping that this is brinkmanship that results in compromise. As pointed out in the article, the decentralization of Iran’s various military forces means they’re more likely to cross the line and give the U.S. an excuse to open up on them. BUT on our side, I think that people would believe if Bush takes things right to the edge he doesn’t care what happens to him politically if he crosses over… and so they won’t think for a moment that he’s bluffing. Very motivating to Iran, perhaps.
There’s something to be said for people thinking your leader is a bloodthirsty, stupid nut.
4
pablito
// May 8, 2008 at 4:55 pm
Makes this story a bit more interesting: http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,354540,00.html
5
Nose
// May 8, 2008 at 5:19 pm
I’m just curious, when will the “disaffected younger generation” of Iran (that’s e-ron not i-ran) actually, you know, do something to show disaffection. So far I am pretty unimpressed with them.
Is that just me?
6
Jim Shawley
// May 8, 2008 at 5:52 pm
Methinks the disaffected have indeed tried to show some disaffection; however, remember there are no gays in Iran…
…meaning, there is not much disaffecting one can do without disappearing.
7
GeoSTI
// May 8, 2008 at 6:22 pm
They’ve had pretty open protests in the colleges, but nothing really becomes of them for reasons Jim made clear.
Makes me think of protesters on this campus in a negative light. Worse for them *might* be a few scuffs.
8
Jim C
// May 8, 2008 at 7:54 pm
I get the impression that the few “open” protests that take place in Iran are more for appearances sake than because the mullahs are invested in allowing their people to speak openly.
Hey, they get the best of both worlds. They get to pretend like they’ve got a free and open society while not actually having one.
Interesting times indeed…
Jim C
9
airboy
// May 8, 2008 at 7:54 pm
When we open up on them. We’re gonna need to be mad dog mean. I mean medival. Its gonna take a huge amount of blood but the calculation by the enemy of whether they wish to continue as people needs to come to their mind. It ends when they sue us for peace. Until that happens, if we’re gonna go in it needs to be pure death.
10
GeoSTI
// May 8, 2008 at 9:35 pm
Jim C.: I’ve never considered that one, I didn’t think they’d risk even a “feeling” of freedom.
Lex mentions gas being high priced here, but one wonders about Iran, with its high inflation and lack of refining capacity.
11
cottus
// May 9, 2008 at 5:15 am
Does anyone seriously think the US is capable of serious military action, no matter who wins the election? Maintaining the status quo, punting, whatever. It’s all about change/feeling good, evil oil companies/rising gas prices, free health care/maintaining the doctor monopoly, education/teacher’s union greed, blah blah blah. Just like after Veetnam - gas lines, double digit inflation, more probably some other weird, painful manifestation of US weakness on the world stage. But we’ll get through it and some new guy/gal will fall heir to the title “Worst President Ever”.
12
FbL
// May 9, 2008 at 5:18 am
Interesting look at things from the political side: this guy says that Saudi officials are hoping Iran gives the U.S. reason to attack it.
13
David M
// May 9, 2008 at 5:31 am
Sure you still want to leave?
14
David M
// May 9, 2008 at 6:59 am
The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the - Web Reconnaissance for 05/09/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.
15
Jim Collins
// May 9, 2008 at 8:16 am
Sure they are FbL, it is in their best interests. Can you imagine what would happen to oil prices if the US attacked Iran? I mean right now it rises $5 just on Hugo Chaves’s tone of voice.
16
STEVEC
// May 9, 2008 at 9:10 am
GeoSTI says Iran has a “lack of refining capacity.” Is this so? From an Opec website it appears to me that Iran has refining capacity as follows:
Refinery capacity
(1,000 b/d) 1,566
I just heard yesterday on a radio show that Iran has the world’s largest refinery . . . which, if threatened, and it is considered threatened right now as their President says stupid things to people with the power to erase that refinery, makes gas prices go higher.
17
FbL
// May 9, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Sure they are FbL, it is in their best interests. Can you imagine what would happen to oil prices if the US attacked Iran?
Of course. I just thought that it was interesting to read that there are other reasons that Saud might want an attack on Iran. It was a good reminder that we’re not the only ones worried about another country with a nuclear weapon.
18
GeoSTI
// May 9, 2008 at 1:04 pm
SteveC: Compared to the US, its 1/10th. 15,449,000 b/d for US production. The only comparable refiner is Asia and Oceania with similar levels of production. The middle east is behind Europe in total capacity.
Source Energy Information Administration.
19
badbob
// May 10, 2008 at 2:59 am
I’m not gonna beat on this subject again, I am well documented here…Plus, I said I’d desist a couple weeks ago.
Nose has a good point, “Where’s the beef” in the Iranian opposition? IMO there ain’t no opposition of any worth. The Mullahs are firmly in charge of their flock of sheep…
Now, let me get this right from the above discourse?..Y’all are saying we shouldn’t “correct” or militarily punish Iran because the price of oil could go up?
Duhhh as my 13 year old would say- The price of oil IS going up.
The clock ticks. The heavy goose step march to a nuclear-armed Persia proceeds. Israel watches, her own go/no-go crtiterion set in stone. As an aside I spent most of the last week in “old” Europe..Expect zero help from that quarter.
Meanwhile, we watch Hannah Montana and Bill P.O.S. Maher on HBO, discuss the finer points of the latest flavored latte and comment wryly as Ivy lawyers hiss and scratch each other over the Dim nomination…
Oh. I forgot. Obama is gonna have a face to face and charm Ol’ Beady after he get’s elected. All part of his “change” policy.
I think I’ll go sip a latte (whatever that is) right now…..
b2
20
Nose
// May 10, 2008 at 8:02 am
Yeah, I got to say that I really don’t fear a Nuc-u-lar Iran because Israel will never let it happen. Never.
I do worry a little bit that Israel may decide to make glass over there, which would be bad for all of us.
N
21
Jim Shawley
// May 10, 2008 at 8:52 am
I fear, Nose, that *that* is Israel’s only option for never letting it happen…
Jim
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