Russia has a very great weight of history. It is a story of encirclement and betrayal, hardship and endurance which comes down to Russian souls from deep antiquity and whose character did much more to shape the Soviet Union than did the communist philosophy which ostensibly underpinned that enterprise.
For those of us in the West who have either never truly studied history or else forgotten its relevance to modern times, it was tempting at first to write-off as something from another century the Russian reaction to Georgia’s ill-conceived adventure in its northern marches: The government attempted military force to reclaim de facto sovereignty to go along with its de jure primacy over the break-away provinces of South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
Perhaps the Georgians thought that the successful advancement of democratic government and institutions had endeared them to the West. Perhaps they thought that the sponsorship of the United States for a Georgian application to join NATO they had earned them the meaningful backing of the hyperpower, and that they were therefore immunized to any Russian counter-stroke. Perhaps they calculated that Vladimir Putin was too evolved a politician to take his country for war out of mere “national pride” over what is essentially a mountain valley with no natural resources, an insignificant economy and a scant 70,000 disaffected citizens. None of that matters any more.
Whether goaded by Russian support to the South Ossetian separatists or whether they earnestly believed that Russia would not react over such a seeming trifling thing, the Georgians badly miscalculated what was actually at stake: Not only their claimed sovereignty but their very freedom. Having not merely dislodged the Georgian armed forces from South Ossetia, but launched air and artillery strikes into Georgia itself and blockaded Georgia’s Black Sea coast with his navy, Vladimir Putin is exercising naked, punitive power. He does so because he can, knowing that nothing can stop him. He does so safe in the knowledge that UN protests are not worth the paper they are printed on, sure in the certainty that Europe cares more for his natural gas and oil exports than their own proclaimed principles, content in the presumption that American military involvement in Arabia and central Asia renders any meaningful response impossible and any moral applications illegitimate.
His ground forces are now poised to enter Georgia itself knowing that no external force will dare to stop them, knowing that the Georgian armed forces are insufficiently equipped for the task of their own national defense, ready to pluck a thorn from his side and – for the first time in a generation of democratic advancement – ready extinguish a beacon of individual freedom by force, if it suits his fancy.
This was not so much a failure of Georgian strategy so much as it was a failure of worldwide imagination. Tanks do not roll overnight, and fleets do not move in a week’s time. Putin is not acting out of petulance but calculation, and the game he’s playing is as long as Russian history itself. The meaning of all this is clear:
History marches on again. Russia has returned.
You’re absolutely right, Lex. Russia has returned to its brutal old tricks, and Europe better wake up and smell the coffee. This is one conflict that really is all about oil and oil pipelines — the one that originates in Azerbaijan, specifically. That’s the one that gives [or doesn't give] Europe access to Russian and Middle-Eastern oil fields. If Putin cuts this pipeline off, it’ll be a long, cold winter in Europe.
Marianne
Putin cuts off the oil, he also cuts off the Euros. That’s a nasty double edged weapon there. No, it’s just Russia being Russia, and if anyone thought things would really change, they were kidding themselves.
George W. has certainly looked distracted at the games. No doubt this weighs. I wonder if he and Putin have broken away to talk while they are both in town?
I just hope that there was no State Department ‘April Glaspy’ advising the Georgian government that the US would back them to the hilt if they decided to reclaim their de facto sovereignty of South Ossetia. However, our experience with the State Department buffoons makes it almost certain that there will be an October surprise now in which we find that the embassy had ‘advised’ the Georgian government that we would ‘be there for them if push came to shove.’ Remember who the first president of Georgia was? He’d have known better.
The old giants never disappear. China… Russia… they reappear over and over through history. We were foolish if we thought that they would not return, old tricks in hand.
Not sure if you mean Russia, or the Soviet Union Lex. The latter must not be allowed to rise again.
Doesn’t look like “Ivan” has much in the way of precision weapons from all the collateral damage they’ve wrought so far in ideal conditions. Sloppy, those “Russians” (or Soviets). I don’t like sloppiness.
If the Georgians are serious about being free, they’ll make a stand and break the back of any Russian (or Soviet) occupation. Russia is all show. It’s dwindling population hasn’t much stomach for conquest or much of anything else they can’t drink..I’m thinking Afghanistan.
b2
b2-
As far as “making a stand” is concerned, I doubt if the Georgian military has significant numbers to stop the Russian juggernaut. Starting back in 2002, we began training the first units of a fledgling Georgian military under the Georgian Train & Equip Program (GTEP). This was ostensibly to strengthen Georgia’s internal border control issues – to clean up the Pankisi Gorge and prevent Chechen rebels from seeking safe harbor inside Georgian territory. Later, we shifted focus to training their units in exchange for their support of OIF – as a result of which Georgia now has the highest per capita commitment of troops in Iraq.
But even with 5+ years of U.S. -led training, the Georgian military is still relatively small and inexperienced. Their presence in Iraq is mainly limited to providing security inside the Green Zone, not doing patrolling/pacification out in the provinces.
That said, the Georgians may make up for their small numbers by their fighting spirit – I remember the Battalion we trained as having a very high esprit-de-corps – almost on par with their Marine trainers. I keep scanning the articles waiting to see a familiar face/name pop out for having exhibited “extraordinary courage” in fighting against the Russians.
From Putin’s standpoint this makes perfect sense. Georgia is inside his sphere of influence as far as he is concerned, kind of like we feel the Monroe Doctrine puts the Americas in side of ours. He wants to send the Georgians and the West a message about who is boss East of the Polish border. He will cease and desist once he has decided that message has been received.
There are limits as to what we can influence, the geography does not support military intervention very well, nor am I sure that Europe would support any such intervention anyway.
That said, the Russians don’t have to get a free ride though. John McCain has talked about kicking Russia out of the G-8 ,and the money aspect is still there.
However, I have always felt that expanding NATO beyond the Eastern Polish border was a bad idea and this kind of shows why. Whether we like it or not, this is a Slavic intramural scrimmage. We would be best to leave it so. Not great, but that is the way it is . Even if it had not been here it was only a matter of time till this kind of intercine warfare reared its ugly head.
Just so long as it stays inside the CIS box, things will be all right for the West, although not so for the Georgians.
Czarist, Communist, Capitalist Russia is the same. Welcome to the multi-polar world of the future.
The Georgians may have some forces in the Green Zone but they are very much in force in Wasit Province. Their outpost – until recently – was one of the most austere in Iraq.
FWIW: South Ossetia and Abkhazia to Russia.
Maj/GH,
Thank you for that information gentlemen. If they have our hyper-power miliatry training and the resolve to be free they can be very effective against any Soviet/Russian style warfare. As I read they are on their way home gratis Uncle Sam. I’ll bet they are mad as Hornets…
Skippy,
I agree with your assessment of that area of the world although I think our help in arms for a Georgian insurgency would be appropriate. The Rooskies/Soviets would do it to us and have been since 1945…
b2
Well this screws with John Ringo’s Ghost series ernormously.
Other than that: Yeah, the drums of war are being sounded again. Well, maybe Germany will get serious in a hurry about defensive spending and I get to fullfill my mandatory service using gear which is not older than my dad.
b2:
Last time the US helped a poor, by Russia invaded, country you got what as a thank you ?
It might be, is, approbiate but your current congress will have for the nonce, a reasonable objection.
For the second and possibly third time since I found this blog, I agree with Skippy-san. The 1/2 dozen Georgians that I work with are resigned to the fact that we aren’t going to do squat to help out their country.
unkawill,
looks like your Georgian colleagues are right. A UK paper is reporting that a U.S. NSC official has stated that we can’t do anything because we need Russia’s support for efforts against Iran.
I don’t like it if that’s for real. When we abandon our allies, no matter how relatively small in size or population, we should expect no support from them in the future.
According to the Australian PM, Bush and Putin had an “animated” discussion regarding the Georgian situation in Beijing the other day:
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/beijing_olympics/story/0,27313,24156469-5014197,00.html
As far as Russian sloppiness goes, I think they’re deliberately going WWII-style, maximize enemy casualties (including civillians) “old school” with this one, for two reasons. The first is that, despite the recent oil wealth, Russia may not think they have the required time and/or treasure to rebuild stocks of boffin-weapons that pinpoint bombing would require – especially as this action gives them sole control of the EU’s spigots with winter fast approaching. Not that I think the EU will take military action should the Russians squeeze, but the Russian opinon on that question is the one that matters.
The other reason is that this sends a direct message to the other satellite and client states the USSR held in the bad old days (particularly Poland): “Annoy us, and we’re going to the mattresses – feel free to ask the Georgians about that.” It remains to be seen what impact this will have on Eastern non-USSR Europe, but I’m rather pessimistic.
DNM, the situations you allude to are very different. Unlike the Afghan situation c. 1980, I don’t see an ideologically-aligned, third or fourth party, antipathetic to the US, ready to step in as a self-funding mercenary group, saviours-cum-overlords for Georgia. Apples and oranges, really; this is about the Bear rebuilding old capabilities and returning to old intentions.
O/T: Lex, is the real-time comment preview gone for good? If so it shall be missed.
B2 “Doesn’t look like “Ivan” has much in the way of precision weapons from all the collateral damage they’ve wrought so far in ideal conditions. Sloppy…”
They are being sloppy because they don’t have to be neat. Who is going to hold them accountable?
The N.Y. Times et al? Nope
The UN? Nope
The U.S. Nope
China? Nope
Putin knows he can tell everyone to pound sand, and no one will raise an eyebrow. And he no longer has formal communism as a drag on his enterprise.
The Russians marched, while the world slept.
This incident will once again bring shame to America, because we won’t lift a finger to help.
Shame on us.
The other side of PGMs is that you hit what you aim at. They don’t mind killing people, but the fact is they tried to hit the BTC pipeline and missed. That is a problem for them, unless you think it was a fiendish clever warning shot…ok, shots…which I doubt.
Timing was perfect for the Russians. The Olympics are overshadowing all the other news stories.
Would they normally have that much armor on that border, or does it reveal an advance plan?
When the US does it it’s defending freedom, when the Russians ( or anyone else for that matter) does it it’s naked aggression. Our moral authority in the world is nil., and Russia knows it. They control the spigot, and know that neither the EU, NATO or the US will do anything except ring their hands in protest. As for the US aiding an ally, read your history.
History refresher for those who would pretend to teach it: It’s been a while since the US militarily reasserted sovereignty within its own borders, and while southerners may have deemed that action naked aggression, from the northern perspective freeing the slaves was defending freedom. History favored the winners, as usual.
Allies in England, France, Korea, Vietnam and Kuwait may disagree with your closing, by the way, but no reason to let facts get in the way of a (self-) entertaining screed.
Oh, and I think that “wring” your hands was the word you were looking for.
Grrizd63: as a matter of fact, the Russians DO control a goodly number of AT-4 Spigots…
..but sometimes we just call them bassoons or faggots.
When the US does it it’s defending freedom, when the Russians ( or anyone else for that matter) does it it’s naked aggression.
Yea, those Georgians with their gassing of their own population by a brutal dictator. I expect Russia to require them to hold elections soon after deposing said brutal dictator. Also, good thing Russia had all that top cover from UN sanctions and were accompanied by a broad coalition of international support.
The Thunder Run has linked to this post in the – Web Reconnaissance for 08/11/2008 A short recon of what’s out there that might draw your attention, updated throughout the day…so check back often.
PGMs would be something Russia reserves for critical targets (pipelines, bridges, etc), not for use on every target to avoid collateral damage. Russia is not going low collateral damage, precision warfare because its not the way they think.
They don’t care.
To begin with, the Russians are fighting a nation of people they have little respect for to begin with. They also hold less value to a human life than the west does; they will take grind down the Georgians for as long as it takes them to meet whatever objectives they choose. And they will fight an insurgency for a decade if thats what it takes to crush Georgian resistance (see Chechnya). The Russians can loose at this style war of course (see Afghanistan 1980s), but will it be bloody either way.
Also, did the ad at the bottom of the page advertise Russian mail-order brides for anyone else?
Little Rock, 1956, as I recall, was the last time the US “militarily reasserted sovereignty within its own borders.” More recent than most in the press would believe.
Remainder of post removed for excess rudeness with apologies.
I think it was 1957, not 1956.
Sh1fty, yes, we know they’re animals, but as you say, key targets like pipelines would rate PGMs. So how come they missed the BTC pipeline, IIRC, FIFTY times? Maybe their stuff isn’t very good.