ergo propter hoc…
After Mixed U.S. Messages, a War Erupted in Georgia
In the five days since the simmering conflict between Russia and Georgia erupted into war, Bush administration officials have been adamant in asserting that they warned the government in Tbilisi not to let Moscow provoke it into a fight — and that they were surprised when their advice went unheeded. Right up until the hours before Georgia launched its attack late last week in South Ossetia, Washington’s top envoy for the region, Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Fried, and other administration officials were warning the Georgians not to allow the conflict to escalate.
But as Ms. Rice’s two-pronged visit to Tbilisi demonstrates, the accumulation of years of mixed messages may have made the American warnings fall on deaf ears.
NYT: This is all Bush’s our fault.
Post hoc often ignores the non-linear catalyst.
Obviously knowing that Russia would respond militarily – especially since Russia already had pre-positioned armor and infantry units on the border in anticipation – why on earth would Georgia attack in defiance of US wishes and without our support?
While the State Department may have legitimately been urging restraint, the offices of our President and Vice President apparently gave Saakashvili the false impression that we would support Georgia in ways far more than we have been doing. Why else would Georgia so foolishly taunt the overwhelming Bear?
Unfortunately for us, the ramifications of this conflict will reverberate. It changes the world’s perceptions of the US and highlights the changing shifts in world power.
IHT appears to have the same article without the registration block.
Wouldn’t a reasonable leader would wait for something more concrete than a mixed message before getting involved in a shooting match in Russia’s front yard?
And even if they did somehow get the message that we would support them, do we even have anything in place that reasonably could have helped?
I disagree, Fliterman. The logistics of moving huge amounts of troops and materiel show that Russia has been planning to attack Georgia for some time. Next on the list is Ukraine, then Latvia, then Estonia, all of which are new democracies since 1991, and Russia will once more be pretty much in command of the Gulf of Finland. Also, they’ll have the Azerbaijan pipeline under their control. They will be well on their way to reinstituting the old imperial Russia. and they will have in their fist virtual control of all the petroleum available to Europe.
Sounds like a cold winter for Europe.
Marianne
Latvia and Estonia are not on the menu for the bear. True, Europeans are doves, but those two are with the “In-Group” according to §5 of NATO treaty and Europeans will honor that because they would all be prey to the bear if they didn’t.
Problem is that Ukraine and Georgia are in an unhealthy position because of the result of the Budapest summit. They are neither “In” to NATO nor “In” to the family of the bear.
Note: if USA and Russia now clash in Georgian airspace (e.g. C-17 flying any kind of aid) then this would not seem to be a NATO case and Europeans would not feel legally obliged to military engage (I am not judging what they should or shouldn’t, anyway).
so, fliterman, with absolutely no evidence, blames the President and Vice President for the mess. Indeed, he does so in the face of evidence that our country has tried to discourage the Georgians for instigating any conflict. Is there anything Bush can’t be blamed for?
Dear Filterman,
You are wrong
Will explain later.
David
Well, I don’t think that the President is behind Kyle Bush winning just about every race, but I could be wrong
Heck – James Carville did what flit-man did on CNN tonite. On the subject of the Russian invasion of Georgia, Mr. Carville expounded on our economy, dependence on fossil fuels and how it’s all Bush’s fault. It waas head-pounding to listen to that ridiculous little man with the even more ridiculous little voice blaming everything that is wrong in the world on Bush.
Bush’s father had it right-reform did not necessarily mean independence was the right course for the Republics. “Some people have urged the United States to choose between supporting President Gorbachev and supporting independence-minded leaders throughout the U.S.S.R. I consider this a false choice”.
NATO expansion into the Caucaus is just plain stupid. Nor does the US need to fuel the already prevalent suspicion that the US is trying to encircle Russia.
Both Clinton and GWB are guilty of supporting the idea when it made no sense for Europe or for the West. Like it or not, they fall within the Russian sphere of influence and their bed is made there. Geography is what it is. If the US really wants to bring back the cold war and start a fight with Russia it needs a bigger military.
I wonder how many of the troops carrying humanitarian aide may be SF?
Therapist, none. There are better ways of getting them there. For one thing, there are a bunch of advisors there already. Second, why risk condemnation of a humanitarian mission by introducing military aid mixed in?
The question yet remains: Why would a erudite and Western-educated President Saakashvill launch an air and land attack on Ossetia, (whose citizens mostly carry Russian passports), knowing that Russia was poised and likely to respond militarily if he had not been led to believe – correctly or not – that the US would support him militarily?
If someone has another plausible explanation of why Saakashvill would have the temerity to taunt the Russian military might alone, and risk the very likely and painful consequences, I am willing to listen.
Three years ago, President Bush stood in Tbilisi’s Freedom Square and told Georgians that America would support them as they traveled their road to freedom. Last month, Secretary Rice was in Tbilisi promising NATO membership for Georgia, telling Saakashvili publicly, “We always fight for our friends.”
As this serious conflict rapidly escalated, Pres. Bush remained in China, and Secretary Rice remained on vacation. And the US loses face, if not one of the most encouraging, rising democratic and pro-western stars of the old Eastern Block. It also underscores our growing impotency.
Pres. Saakashvill surely should have known that while the US encourages fighting against oppression, it has a long history of not backing up that encouragement, i.e. the 1956 Hungarian Revolution, the Hmong tribesmen, Afghanistan after the Soviet invasion, or the 1991 Southern Iraq uprising against Saddam Hussein. So why would he unilaterally attack Ossetia if he did not have more than vague US promises to counter the Russian response? Bueller?
And if the Captain of our Ship of State is not responsible or accountable for our international diplomacy, alliances, plans and programs, who is? (His XO?)
Absent friends, stand not amazed – fliterman no more believes his little manufactory than any of you. He plays his role. And as always, he plays it nearly to perfection.
Russian policy in the Caucasus was deliberately provocative. Had not the most recent provocations sufficed, greater ones would have been engineered. At some point, Saakashvili would have had to respond. We are where we are.
Others – even some who call themselves “liberals” – can pretend that a United States policy that encourages the growth of a democratic society in a place that has no strategic benefit to us is, as a matter of public policy, regrettable – an over-reach. While simultaneously holding that encouraging the foundation of democratic society in countries where we have strategic interest is a war crime. Inertia is protected. Everything is excused but action.
The rest of us know: Things have unfolded precisely as the emperor had foreseen them. Practically anything is possible for a “realist.” And all that is required for evil to flourish is for good men to do nothing.
Points on for sneering from the sidelines.
fliterman has the real deal on Georgia.
The Bush Administration supported the entry of Georgia into NATO, and talked with them as an ally.
The Bush administration said to Georgia, repeatedly, do not provoke the Russians over Ossetia.
The erudite and western educated Saakshivili, somehow, someway, mixed up the message: “We are your ally, but don’t provoke Russia over Ossetia.”
The erudite and western educated Saakshivili, somehow, someway, mixed up his knowledge of history: Hmong, 91 Gulf, Hungary, Afghanistan.
Bush/Cheney told him “go ahead hit South Ossetia we’ll be there this time.” On the super secret sly this time.
Meanwhile Bush was reading a book to children in China while it went down.
Ah, I can hardly wait for the “Bush read PDB about Russian Georgian Tensions” before leaving for China. Da Bastard.
I appreciate contrariness as much as the next guy, which is why I like Skippy. Fliterman, not so much. Skippy may disagree with policy, and the thought processes behind it, but his reflex is not to blame America first. He may blame America in the end, but only through internally consistent l0gic.
Fliterman, have you ever heard of the term of art, “baited attack?” Because that is surely what the Russians did. As our esteemed host mentions, they provoked the fight. If the provocation wasn’t sufficient, they would have found one that was. Or just made up a story and rolled in anyways. That’s what they do. Take a look at two examples you yourself brought up. Hungary and Czechoslovakia. In neither case did those nations attack Russia or anyone else. And yet they found tanks on their streets.
One thing for sure, we can surely tell who the players are here WITHOUT reading the program. Given the chance to play the “blame game”, ole’ flit is sure to do it, looking behind every “Bush” until he’s happy.
…and the world goes on. Late news tonight reports the Presidents of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland are flying to Tiblisi as a show of support for President Saakshivili. Rice is also reported as having been dispatched, as well as two planes with humanitarian aid.
What do you think “flit”, the humanitarian aid was Obama’s idea? Reading the history on the passport question, Russia was outright offering them to South Ossetia’s citizens like candy. Meanwhile the “blue helmeted United Nations” Russian soldiers had occupied (Do you remember that word from what you called America’s own troops being in Iraq?) SO for several months. Russian troops were NOT massing on the border of Georgia, they were massing on the southern border of South Ossetia, already INSIDE the recognized borders of Georgia.
Tell us, please, how do Cheney and Bush have even the remotest connection to that? You may be filling a role, fliterman, but please try to do a little better at it.
Oh, yes… Allen. Bush haters don’t fly too high here. Be careful though, hate often causes more ills for the hater than the hatee.
PeterGunn, just a quick correction- The Russians entered South Ossettia as “peacekeepers” on their own, not under the auspices of the UN, and it has been for years, not months.
Thanks for the correction, XBradTC; I’d seen pictures of soldiers, said to be Russians, in light blue helmets?? I shouldn’t have assumed; the obvious is usually not the case, is it?
fliterman: the plausible explanation to your remaining question at #12 above is as plain as the nose on your face…
you have clearly overlooked the possibility that Saakshivili is just being a dick.
riddle solved.
Peter, I’m thinking the truth is somewhere in the middle. I’d have to check, but while I know they went in on their own, I do believe the UN recognized them later, adding some Georgian troops to the mix, and SO militias as well!
Question:
If the US supplies Georgian forces with hand-held anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons, (MANPAD is I think the correct term, not sure), will that get the bear out of the country and back across the border?
How long would it take?
Can we do it without public support? I’m assuming (regretfully) that the American public won’t support overt US military action, or even covert action.
I don’t like being caught by surprise here. I don’t like our options. I especially don’t like letting Ivan swallow up an ally. This is bad.
What can we do?
Best regards, Peter Warner.
RetRsvMike,
Or it could be that Sakaasvilli just got sick and tired of being slapped around and provoked by SO and Russia… to the point that he didn’t give a fig if the US was going to back his play. Sometimes a bully just pushes you too far, and you’ve got to stand up for yourself even though you know it will result in you getting your butt kicked.
Jim C
Jim C: entirely true (but that set of circumstances would effectively preclude me from mentioning that someone else was also sounding like a dick)
RetRsvMike,
True that…
Jim C
Why is it such of crime to be a realist in the ways of the world? Twas once a virtue, then came the morons staffing the project for the New American Century. It is the idealists who have it wrong, not the realists.
What-exactly- do we do about Georgia? Admit them to NATO? If we do then we better make sure Turkey is hugely on board with that program, because we need them as a staging base. And as an ally that is totally comitted to the cause-if I were a Turk, I’d ask what’s in for me? Cause the answer is nothing.
If there is one silver lining to all this, maybe it will wake people up to the fact that a fixation on Arabs has been a misdirection of effort and assets. The great game goes on and on.
Like it or not-the right move here is the one the administration seems to be doing, talk a good game and in the meantime just let the little drama play itself out on its own. Shades of Richard Nixon. ( He would have thrown the Georgians under the bus a lot sooner though………).
Skippy,
Being a realist? Realist on your terms = ankle biter for the “man in the ring”.
re- “in the meantime just let the little drama play itself out on its own.”
Someday you may be the hunted on the ground about to have your freedom extinguished..It’s possible.
That could be real, too.
I think GW has pulled one of his best plays yet. Lex’s idea above is just reflex of a tactical fighter pilot (G-bless him). GW sent in the humanitarian aid, Condie and the rest of the soft skills to get Ras-Putin Jr. to back off. Meanwhile the Ukraine and the rest are joining hands and creating photo ops in Tbilisi…Cobra-eyed Putin has been out KGB’d.
Of course we ain’t gonna go head to head with the Rooskies over Georgia..When/if we ever do, it better be “whole hog”. IMO, we can kick their “collective” (pun intended) a$$e’s! …..
Like Gates said yesterday. “We spent 45 years trying to avoid war with Russia (USSR). We’re not going to stop now….”
b2
From Hugh Hewitt:
http://townhall.com/Columnists/BillOReilly/2008/08/16/vlad_the_assailer
Best regards, Peter Warner.