Several intertwined strands led the precipitious drop in violence in Iraq: General Petraeus’s surge of forces and the neighborhood security strategy it enabled, a decision by Moqtada Sadr to rein in his goons in the wake of disastrous intramural struggle for control of the Shia heartland, and rejection by the Anbari tribes of al Qaeda’s grim vision – the so-called “Anbar Awakening”.
In Afghanistan the outlook has not been so bright. After having initially being thrown back on their heels by the coalition effort in 2001-2002, the Taliban has gradually reconstituted its forces over the intervening years, making the hinterlands ungovernable. Pashtun tribesman cast a cold eye on the dedication of NATO to see the fight through and the government to rule honestly, even as their Pakistani brethren provide a seemingly endless supply of cannon fodder to the Qaeda/Taliban cause. With the writ of the state exceeding no further than Kabul, Pashtun farmers make their livelihood in fields of poppy whose profits are skimmed to support the Taliban cause.
In clash after tactical clash of arms, the fighting forces of the coalition – US, British, Canadian and Dutch for the most part – routinely emerge victorious, but with insufficient forces on the ground tactical victories cannot be exploited as strategic gains. Afghan government and coalition forces whisper that the real enemy is not in Kunar, but across the border in Pakistan. Particularly in the ungoverned FATA province of Bajaur.
Where, as it turns out, a local tribe has had just about enough of the importunate Taliban:
(In) the Salarzai area of Bajaur, a suspected member of the Taleban militia has been beaten to death.
The man was attacked near the funeral of two tribal leaders, Malik Zareen and Malik Bakhtawar, who were killed in a rocket attack on Monday.
The leaders had been trying to raise a tribal force to combat the Taleban in the area.
The Taleban denied having anything to do with the rocket attack.
The BBC has learnt that locals in Salarzai have decided to oppose the Taleban.
A building used by the Taleban as their headquarters in the area has been burnt down by armed Salarzai men.
In other news, the Pakistani Army killed 37 pro-Taliban militants in Bajaur and another 11 in South Waziristan yesterday, putting paid, perhaps, to the notion of the recently resigned President Pervez Musharraf’s indispensibility.
More like this.
I keep hoping/praying for a similar sort of turn around as that experienced in Iraq. And your comment about them “cast[ing] a cold eye on the dedication of NATO to see the fight through” is so very true. The Taliban sicken me with their atempted propaganda tricks.
Greetings:
If you want to read an interesting book about the Middle East, pick up “Culture and Conflict in the Middle East” by Philip Carl Salzman.
Mr. Salzman is an anthropologist and attributes these neverending conflicts to the tribal nature of Middle East culture.
As soon as the draw down occurs in Anbar, we can see the future of AF force projection increasing.
It looks like we are not replacing 3/101, one of the RCTs, and 1/4. Drawing down to 12 BCTs in Iraq. That provides the three BCTs needed for Afghan.
Note: 3/10 BCT is already switching its prep to Afghan vice Iraq.
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