Comments on: Be-lipsticked Pigs and Black Swans

By: RPL

RPL — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 01:25:21 +0000

I’m pretty sure it was Mark Twain who said “There are lies, damned lies, and statistics.”

There are a number of prediction sites that are out there, and it’s too close to call. Most of them have McCain leading, with a number of undecideds.

To me, this is reminiscent of 1980. The race was tight until Reagan and Carter debated, and people saw that Reagan wasn’t that bad. I realize that the comparison isn’t completely accurate, but my take on it is that people are waiting to see how the two of them do in the debates.

For what it’s worth, Reagan and Carter only debated once.

By: xairboss

xairboss — Thu, 18 Sep 2008 01:13:45 +0000

I’m confused by all of this. So…… what’s new. I’m still handsome

By: midwatchcowboy

midwatchcowboy — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 23:14:34 +0000

I still remember that we have to factor in the good ole electoral college.

Intrade.com has a map of each of the prediction markets for the states. The current map has it 269-269.

By: Skippy-san

Skippy-san — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 21:32:25 +0000

Re:”Too bad statistics couldn’t be frozen when you find the answer you want.”

Wish that was true of the stock market.

By: Michelle

Michelle — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 21:18:50 +0000

Pogue, great line, thanks.
That’s a keeper.

By: Idaho Joe

Idaho Joe — Wed, 17 Sep 2008 20:56:27 +0000

Oops, never mind. Read a little closer on the link, which still looks slightly like Greek Voodoo, and found this.

“There are some problems with the prediction market price model, first, prices have an practical upper limit of 100. Second we see that the parameters of our two distributions are quite different and the probabilities don’t come close to adding to 1. We present a more sophistocated approach to analysis on our Presidential Prediction page. ”

Of course, on the Presidiential Prediciton page, McCain still squeeks out a win. Too bad statistics couldn’t be frozen when you find the answer you want.