The two vice-presidential candidates had little to gain last night, and much to lose. Sarah Palin needed to reassure a near-suicidal Republican political class that John McCain had not doubled down on a losing hand by selecting her for the ticket, as well as convince a skittish, muddled middle that she has the political and intellectual chops (if not necessarily the foreign policy experience) to be one heartbeat away from The Big Chair.
This was probably a tougher row for Palin to hoe than it had looked from the comfort of an 86% approval rating in Juneau. It was easy to dismiss the early outrage of the media and their enablers – ZOMG! Baby Trig is really Bristol’s love child with a space alien!!!1! – but their later attacks were more coolly venomous, and, in the weight of their continuous, layered accumulation, vastly more effective. No one slips the shiv between your ribs so perkily as Katy Couric.
Biden was selected by Obama for classic balancing effect: His avuncular “man from Scranton” shtick is valuable because it allows the campaign to reach out to those lingeringly offended by the slow motion coup against Hillary Clinton, the one-time heir apparent. Biden is supposed to bring along working class whites who might have certain… reservations about this Obama guy when the polling booth curtain closes, along with Democratic women who felt that their candidate had been roughly handled by the party and the national media. The senator has a lamentable tendency to bloviate at length while condescending to his audience, character traits that would cause Joe Six Pack to wonder at his workaday authenticity on the one hand, while sending Jane Gender-Warrior to the barricades on the other.
On balance, Biden had more to lose – the media’s campaign against Palin has been relentless and effective, her ticket trails in recent opinion polls and there was nowhere to go but up. In that light I thought he performed his role effectively, avoiding direct attacks on Palin herself, but repeatedly attempting to tie John McCain to the unpopular George W. Bush presidency. He also – disappointingly, to me – managed to stuff away his curious physical and verbal tics for the hour: The wolfish, inappropriately timed grins, the “literallies” he sprinkles about to the “ladies and gentlemen” when he’s “not being facetious.”
Palin also performed credibly, reaching through the television screen to her target audience while avoiding any serious blunders and delivering her talking points with passion and enthusiasm – even if they had little to do with the questions being asked by moderator Gwen Ifill. Her “just folks” elocution, and mavericky reform emphasis will no doubt passionately offend those who never would have voted for a Republican to begin with, but may attract the votes of those who’d rather, in the immortal words of William Buckley, “be governed by the first hundred names in the Boston phone book than by the Harvard faculty.” She’s proven an able politician, if, as yet, an inexperienced one, a person of spine (not to mention great calves) and, most of all, she pushed the candidacy of her man. If there was anything to regret in her presentation, it was that she let Biden off the hook a little too easily for his rote blame-shifting on the instant financial crisis.
I think it’d be interesting to do a word count on both of their presentations: I’d be willing to bet that the words “John” and “John McCain” came up a great deal more often than either “Barack” or “Barack Obama” from both candidates, which is a curious thing now that I reflect on it. Though trailing in the polls, he was very much more the “man in the room”, for better or worse, than was his adversary. (Update: A word count of the transcript confirms my prediction: “Obama” came up 61 times, “Barack” 66 times, “McCain” 105 times, “John” 106 times. Very interesting.)
I also get the sense that, should things not go her team’s way in November, Palin would be perfectly content to return to Alaska, finish off her term as governor, and go back to raising a family in Wasilla. Biden and Obama are entirely political animals, they have no other life than this – it defines them. McCain too perhaps, but to a very much lesser degree: He has a great deal more barrel to him – a depth of character and breadth of life-experience. This is, you are reminded, his second career, and whatever life throws at him from here to the end, he knows that he has seen worse and survived it.
As moderator, Ifill could only gently chide Palin for going off topic, and for that matter Biden, who was equally willing to answer the question he wanted the moderator to ask rather than the one she actually did. Perhaps this was because of her placid personality and journalistic integrity, perhaps because the late revelation that she has a book featuring Obama’s candidacy coming out on inauguration day 2009 placed her in the spotlight. Making the news, rather than breaking it, if you follow.
It’s tempting to wrap up with a winner in the zero sum game, but that’d be a mistake. Each candidate had separate scoring conditions going into the evening, chief among them to “do no harm” among their very different constituencies. From that perspective, each of them walked away having done what was expected of them.
Thirty-three days.
Damn I like your writing style, Lex. Having never heard your oratory don’t know if it matches, but if it does, you just might have a second career in politics. But then, like the pre- requisites required of all successful attorney’s as well as politicos, there’s always the matter of whether you have enough larceny in your soul……
Your analysis of last night is pretty much “spot on” as the British are wont to say. The “wolfish grin” bit brought a chuckle from this geezer–I’d totally forgotten about that mannerism–but a mental picture of Biden and the grin instantly hove into view in my head, culled by your comment from some forgotten memory-bank. Nice piece of writing….
It would all be amusing if this one didn’t matter so much. I would prefer to vote for some 3rd or 4th party candidate and let both the major parties stew in their own juices, but I have the gut feeling that Obama/Biden, coupled with a Dem majority in Congress, will be a disaster.
ASM – I have that same horrible gut feeling as well.
I think Palin did a terrific job last night; she went up against a professional debater with over 30 years of Senate experience. On that score alone I’d have thought Biden would have done better.
Which just proves Palin is much stronger and tougher than she’s been given full credit for – yet.
I thought she started rather tense, but then really burst into her element as the debate heated up and she was able to ad lib against the Biden points. She tends to repeat herself too often verbatim, but when she is comfortable enough to go off script she scores points. When she was “riffing” my wife was literally jumping up and yelling “yeah!”. (As opposed to the presidential debate when she tuned out at the halfway point.)
Biden on the other hand, started off relaxed and smiling but as Palin started landing punches the smile turned dour, and he got condescending. I thought there were moments where had she kept up the free-flowing attacks she might have really gotten under his skin and created a Biden-moment.
But it was not to be.
Anything but a clear and resounding victory goes to the Democrats, who will be safe to run out the clock.
hmmm … Katie ‘the shiv’ Couric. It fits.
I’m with you, Kris. And with your wife, flatlander. I thought Palin did a terrific job … fast on her feet, respectful to her debate opponent but deadly with her ripostes ["that would be the white flag of surrender"] and generally poised. She seemed to reach above Ifill and Biden and the partisan press and go right to the hearts and minds of her listeners. That’s a rare talent, and I think it will take her far.
Marianne
Biden has been debating openly as a public official since about 1968 when he was elected locally in Delaware and Palin was…oh…six years old. He has been in countless debates in the Senate and on the national stage (42 times on Meet the Press.) She’s been in..what do you know that was her FIRST national debate. Okay, her debate was not perfect. I point out that her worst answer was on the role of the VP being flexible in light of the Cheney experience. BUT she has learned quickly and I expect that, combined with her ability to connect with real American voters, she has a real future.
Palin won. Hands down. She’s a star and I really like the way she thinks. She makes me “feel” good to be a conservative. Biden was boring and pedantic……According to him John McCain voted for everything put in front of him..despite the fact that he “loves” John. Remeber Buddy is only a 1/2 a word….Lastly, his facts were wrong and 180 degress out on at least 1/2 of his vaunted factoids regarding senate votes…snore….
Don’t depress yourself with the lefties propaganda from the Herr Olberman’s , NYTs, etc and the rest of those Nazi Goebbels characters.Even the lefties know she won.
b2
B2 – you go it – feeling good to be a conservative. Great way to put it, thank you for that!
Marianne – thank you for the agreement; I take it as a great compliment coming from you. Thank you!
Biden told 14 outright lies last night – yet no one is talking about them. Just proves what we already know about the MSM.
Thanks for this. Once again, I could not watch. I decided, hearing it in the back room as my husband watched, that I’d wait until today and see what you had to say about it. We don’t agree on everything politically, but I find what you have to say is very grounded and sound.
Obama, is unfortunately going to take this, and with a Dem Congress, I’m very skittish about our future as we could potentially start the slipperly slope to becoming the largest European welfare state… without being European. I am more so nervous for my children… in light of this latest bail out and it being so full of pork I wanted to scream.
I can’t help but feel like McCain’s campaign is running kind of like a redux of Bob Dole in ‘96.
The futile attempts to win by being “nice” are simply exploited as weakness by the opposition. Dole was pretty much nominated because it was “his turn” and although McCain’s nomination was influenced by the media who he thought were on his side, I don’t see any great passion in his efforts to win. Conservatives will probably view this election cycle as when the media finally lost it’s mind and Sarah Palin began her ascent within the Party. I’d still love to know what Hillary & Bubba are really up to.
McCain seems to lack the killer instinct. That may be why he flew light attack bombers rather than fighters. Or it may be that he will “kill” only if it is in what he sees as an honorable fashion. We don’t need Manolete with a red cape and a short sword going in over the horns. We need somebody who will clear the cesspool in Washington with a SAW (not literally of course–but you get my point.) McCain wants to reach across the aisle, and that’s a wonderful thing–if Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank aren’t the people on the other side of the aisle. But you can’t do “honorable deals” with people who are not honorable.
Sarah Palin will work away in support of John McCain–but if he doesn’t get off his duff and get after his opponents, it’s a lost cause.
Get a grip, 10-12 above. I can’t stand defeatism. Relax. Have a drink. Get motivated. This flight ain’t over yet folks…
re ” That may be why he flew light attack bombers rather than fighters”
‘Slaps own head’. Cmon Mikey. That’s simply screwball. Can’t peak too soon. The negative ads will come back in the next week or so and McCain will get up in the polls again….
If the Obamanation wins we’ll have plenty to critique..The pressure we’ve had building since 2000 election, 9-11, IR/AF, etc. will be their’s to f/up and we will be there to point out every friggin mistake they make…
b2
Mike,
McCain seems to lack the killer instinct. That may be why he flew light attack bombers rather than fighters.
You obviously don’t know much about Naval Aviation…
You know, the biggest thing I fear about this election is what comes after. Unlike in the 60’s and 50’s where ostensibly, America came back together after an election-the country has abandoned that pretense all together. Now the party out of power resolves to hate the other one.
Won’t matter who wins on that score-the divisiveness will be the same.
I don’t hate the Libs Skippy, I just feel sad for them
Skippy — out with friends last night, and we had this very discussion. What I fear, is this scenario — Obama keeps around 49-50%, and the media keeps hyping his inevitabilty. McCain stays around 46-48%, so undecideds stay at 3-6%, right up to election day. Election day, they break 80% for McCain (really were decided, but didn’t want to say — Bradley factor) and McCain wins. Obama has created almost a messianic like cult following in many of his admirers (like SoCal music teachers?). When McCain wins, how will they deal with the disillusionment? Will they say “the people have spoken”, or will they head to the barricades? Are some of his black followers seeing his election as sort of political reparations, and won’t be satisfied until the bill is paid? Will they be resentful to the point of rage, because they were denied a “promised, certain” victory?
Won’t be the same level of rage with an Obama win. Conservatives may hate his policies, but they don’t hate him, or his supporters. Can’t say the same for the leftist camp — Sandra Bernhard anyone?
How about the inverse Bradley factor (how many years ago was that BTW?)..IE, when all those former Repubs and conservatives who will sit out (yellow) or vote for the loon twins- Barr/Paul.
Or are they both just a ploy to lower expectations in a hand held by the MSM?
McCain went up in the polls before this “06 Dem congress/Frank/Dodd buffoonery induced meltdown”. McCain is on the right side of that history and the American people need to know it. He needs to pound that home along with the Rev. Wright, Bill Ayers and Obama’s non-record, not ready for prime time, empty suit visage and simultaneously beat up the Dem congress to boot.
Negative ads?..you bet. How else can you debunk a Cult? Of course, the MSM will break out the heavy propaganda guns in the next few weeks but McCain needs to let it fly and sustain his attacks. Plus, don’t forget, the Osama (S not A) factor will, if history repeats itself unfortunately, make a play soon with a video and hopefully nothing else. It did in ‘04 and again in ‘06…
The fourth quarter is just starting. Muster the team. We’re slightly behind. Sure I’m pissed off at Randy Cunningham, that ‘head’ troll from Idaho and all the repubs who screwed the Reagan brand, including GW… I’m looking forward not back. IMO, anyone who walks away now is whale-poop in my estimation.
b2
If there isn’t “the same level of rage with an Obama win” it’s because the conservatives are the ‘grown-ups’ here. We don’t do ugly and childish and dangerous things. We may not have the virulent hatred of the radical left, but we do have an active disgust for people who behave as they do. And we have serious doubts about the safety of our country under the aegis of such an inexperienced intellectual lightweight as Obama and his crowd.
When McCain wins, as you put it, the tantrums and hatred from the Left will be both ugly and sometimes dangerous. Count on it.
Marianne
Mike Meyers –
Looks like you are going to get your wish.
“I also get the sense that, should things not go her team’s way in November, Palin would be perfectly content to return to Alaska, finish off her term as governor, and go back to raising a family in Wasilla. Biden and Obama are entirely political animals, they have no other life than this – it defines them.”
I swallowed my coffee the wrong way when I read this.
Wow…are you really not seeing Sarah Palin?Is she really that easy to dismiss? What makes you think she has any intention of being a one-term governor if McCain fails?
Sarah Pain is ambitious…she chose to accept the VP bid at a time when many families might have found it easier to avoid the limelight and scrutiny of a national campaign…she decided not to squander the opportunity to appear on the big stage, even if the timing was off for her family (I don’t know that I’d drag a pregnant teenage daughter into center stage like that if I could avoid it, but, then again–to be VP…if I thought it were my only chance–ambition can blur one’s perspective).
This is a woman who jumped from being mayor of what is a small town even in Alaska to state governor. This is a woman who referred to all the great VPs who went on to become president during the debate…with a wink, clearly imagining herself there is 4-8 years.
Don’t let the calves or the pshaws, gosh darnits and you betchas fool you–Sarah Palin may profess to be a Washington outsider–but she wants to be an insider…the biggest insider.
I have no problem with ambitious women–more power to her, literally…but don’t assume because she puts her hockey mom-ness up front in her autobiography that is all she wants to be…ambitious girls don’t strive to be second best–whether they are moms or not.
If nothing else, it demonstrates she is a very crafty politician if someone I thought was a good reader of public figures bought the notion that she is just a Mrs. Smith going to Washington. Her nickname is Sarah Barracuda, after all, and she’s made a political career on her opponents (men) underestimating her.
b2- I hope you’re right, because from where I sit, his campaign looks anemic. Sarah Palin brought an enthusiasm to the campaign that was sorely needed. I don’t know what’s been going on with those daggum interviews, if the McCain camp isn’t spending the time coaching her properly or if they are getting piss poor advice, but its dragged the campaign down.
I expected the good Senator to come out swinging after the Convention and to just keep on swinging until the end. So far… I’ve not seen any swinging. I’ve seen… Nada.
And if his strategy is to wait until the 4th Quarter, then let us pray it works, because I’ve watched many a game lost by trying too late to do too much, what should have been done far earlier.
All I know is I don’t want Obama in, I think this current Congress sucks sewage laden pond water, that McCain looks anemic, that I WILL be out there voting… and he needs to start coming in strong because its starting to piss me off.
Bou,
Check out Drudge right now. Sarah took the gloves off and you should know what that means in hockey. She’s goin’ after him where I think he is vulnerable- the company he used to keep but didn’t inhale.
Forgive the hosed up link but : http://www.breitbart.com/article.php?id=D93JSBFO0&show_article=1
geo6
Geo6- Good. It’s time. Now lets see the Senator doing the same thing. He needs to take them down and he needs to start doing it NOW. Both tag teaming the Dems… and if they lose, at least they did so having shown America they went down fighting and that they TOLD America what they would be getting.