An on-scene report from retired Army General Barry McAffrey in pdf format (H/T to Nose for the link).
THE BOTTOM LINE:
a. The United States is now clearly in the end game in Iraq to successfully achieve what should be our principle objectives:
• The withdrawal of the majority of our US ground combat forces in Iraq in the coming 36 months.
• Leaving behind an operative civil state and effective Iraqi security forces.
• An Iraqi state which is not in open civil war among the Shia, the Sunnis, and the Kurds.
• And an Iraqi nation which is not at war with its six neighboring states.
Key excerpts:
It is unarguable that the past 18 months have witnessed a dramatic, positive change in the Iraqi internal security situation. Iraqi and Coalition Security Force casualties in a comparative sense are now at rock bottom. Ethnic strife between the Shia and the Sunnis has all but stopped. The Shia militias have in general been neutralized— and the Sunni insurgents bought out by the Sons of Iraq Program. Indirect fire attacks (mortars and rockets), IED explosions, High Profile Attacks (suicide car bomb explosions) have all plummeted in the past year…
Iranian intervention is relentless, lethal, and implacably hostile to US interests— but has to a great extent alienated the southern Iraqi Shia and been largely ineffective. There is a steadily growing presence of Iraqi Border Security Forces and US and British border screening operations.
The economy has improved immeasurably in the past year. The markets are open. The roads are again viable. Oil and electricity is no longer routinely sabotaged by the insurgents and criminals. Cell phone communications, satellite TV, and radio are all operating. Clean water is increasingly available despite a long term severe drought… The stock exchange is working. The Central Bank works and is independent. The Central Bank Governor is honest and technically competent. Iraq is largely compliant with the IMF— and the recent positive report from the Paris Club may bring increasing debt relief to their finances.
The courage and effectiveness of US combat units are remarkable and inspirational. We have sustained serious US casualty rates. (4000+ killed) Many of the leaders are on their third or fourth combat deployments. Fortunately, it is my impression that the most effective Captains of the combat forces are staying with us. We are having greater challenges keeping the mid-career NCOs’ at grade E-6. However, the bottom line is that the operational effectiveness of these Joint US Forces is simply unbelievable. Their leadership at company command and battalion command is powerful.
As the Saudis note with great sadness—we entered Iraq uninvited…but we must not leave the same way. It is essential for both US and Mid East security that we pull out of Iraq in a deliberate and responsible manner— and leave a stable and functioning state. This is clearly within our capabilities.
Read the whole thing for the caveats. Remember who made this possible, and who preferred defeat to victory.
Update: Who are you going to believe? GEN McAffrey? Or your own lying eyes?
Update 2: Mark your calenders for 22 November 2008.
As child/Adult of ADD, my thought processes speed along too rapidly as to disallow my being able to respond logically in such a manner as you have so eloquently mastered, Lex. My ability to respond in any manner considered reasonable, would appear to be a discourse as most, I believe Hank Fonda described it, to be verbose. Nevertheless…
So many lessons have we to learn from history, especially from the likes of Neville Chamberlain (who, despite his ideology and good intentions, failed his people miserably), and, yet, here we are at the precipice of disaster in the making. Would that we could take from our friends across the pond: God save the Queen being translated into God save America.
My mother is of Dutch ancestry, ironically having been born in the land where His Highness is known for having made faces at his teachers. The Dutch East Indies was once a land of far greater industry than it it today…sadly. Her story of how the Dutch people returned arms to the Japanese following their surrender in 1945 that peace and civility might be restored amongst the people during the Communist uprising would chill any today. There is a lesson to be learned here in America, but most are still too high on the Epinephrine injected by His Most Wonderful. Ladies and Gentlemen, let the Cortisol about to begin…without recourse…
One of my Aunts, most beloved by me this woman, lives in Vienna, Austria, wife of the head of a notable music school there (which has some actual value in that part of the world), commented recently to my mother as to how Austria had recently realized the error of its ways with regards to Socialism.
Interesting how most Austrians were so drawn to the notions of all receiving health care and other such benefits as are being promised of late in our dear USofA.
And, yet, WE will not learn. Doomed are we to repeat the lessons of…
Hail to the Chief…
Or, better, yet, God save us…
” Remember who made this possible, and who preferred defeat to victory.”
Yes, indeed, sir. You got that part right.
The problem that certain individuals will have is that hindsight is 20/20, and real historians will give credit, as well as blame, where it rightfully belongs.
Respects,
Two extracts: “It is almost the case that an Iraqi government in the classic sense does not yet exist. The glue that holds Iraq together is the US Armed Forces, the US Embassy Team, tribal leadership, and the Iraqi Army”.
Yep. And no small surprise of what would happen if that glue chemistry was re-engineered prematurely (remove US military and/or Embassy Team).
“The Iranians are following a course of action that is illogical for their own security interests. They have significant covert resources in Iraq and maintain a hostile interventionist political stance. They are developing nuclear weapons and will achieve their purpose within five years. They have developed a serious naval-missile-air power capability to close the Persian Gulf and interdict the flow of oil. This Iranian action would prompt almost certain international crisis and a probable massive US air and naval attack on their armed forces and means of production. (My own view of the probable outcome).”
This is the General’s view of the “probable” outcome. It ain’t fear-mongering, though that’s how MSM would likely paint it. We have a long row to hoe, and a new administrationbehind the plow.
An amazing state of affairs that we pulled this out at 50′ AGL after having spiraled out of control from 50K’. I hope, and believe, that the next administration will take this gift of success and build on it. It is obvious we’re winning now, and Obama could only go down from here.
I was over in both theatres this past summer, and there was a clear difference in trending, palpable in the air. Iraq up, Afghanistan descending. Fight’s not over by a far stretch.
” Remember who made this possible, and who preferred defeat to victory.”
And now, I can die happy because I know the American Fighting Man has no equal, ….. and as long as America produces these Young Men of Valor and Courage, she NEVER will.
For those who never lost faith in these Young Men and Women, Thank you.
Subsunk
The leadership and courage of our US military forces in Iraq (and increasingly the Iraqi Security Forces) has literally kept the country together. We and the Iraqi people owe them a great deal.
The Truest Words.
Subsunk
Sub sunk,
What you said.
I am so damned proud of those valiant men and women! I pray every morning that the war in Iraq will end well. Prayers finally being answered.
Now, it’s on to Afghanistan, where the slogging is going to be tough because it is so much more primitive and isolated than Iraq. And of course there’s Waziristan (untouchable) next door. It’s doable because our troops are the best. If we the people and the administration stand behind them nothing they can’t do.
I will admit to a small bit of pride, in that the fruit of my loins in among the crowd. But look at this group, whom will earn the title of “Marines” on Thursday. Then, consider that less than 150 days ago, they were civilians. If I were the ones that will certainly face them on the receiving end of a shoulder fired weapon, I wouldn’t be sanguine about my future.
They keep hearing the call of a nation at war, a proven method turns them into weapons, and our enemies — wherever — should heed McCafferty’s warnings. We will have the most powerful military in the world, for at least fifteen years, because of our human capital. Just look in those eyes, , and the eyes of their Drill Instructors — full of equal amounts of purpose and determination — and be glad they are on our side.