BAGHDAD, Dec. 31 — The walls of the majestic Republican Palace in Baghdad’s Green Zone have been stripped bare. The vaults that secured American cash and classified documents are gone, and the cement blast walls that protected the front entrance were taken down this week. The U.S. military dining facility inside what was once the American Embassy served its last meal New Year’s Eve.
“This is the end of the world as we know it,” said Sgt. 1st Class Patrick McDonald, 47, who co-authored a guide to historic sites in the Green Zone. “It’s not like everyone is shredding documents and fleeing Saigon. But we are stepping away from a building.”
Saddam Hussein had the palace compound’s main building decorated with giant busts of himself to demonstrate his hold over Iraq. After the 2003 U.S.-led invasion, the palace came to symbolize the American role in the country, first as the headquarters of the U.S. occupation authority and later the U.S. Embassy…
When the clock struck midnight on Wednesday, the U.S. returned the palace to the Iraqi government and relinquished formal control over the Green Zone, a heavily fortified six-square-mile enclave on the Tigris River where key U.S. and Iraqi bureaucracies are situated.
No helicopters, this time.
We’ve just about done what we can do in Iraq. It’s time to shift the effort to Afghanistan, and see what can be salvaged there.
–
During the post-Cold War defense draw down of the 1990′s, the natural question defense planners asked in their “bottom up review” was how to size the objective force – what was the desired end-state? This in turn drove a strategic review – what should that force be expected to accomplish?
In mid-June 1993, Defense Secretary Les Aspin initially proposed a “win-hold-win” strategy for the military mission set: The US would build and maintain a force structure capable of decisively defeating an enemy force in major combat operations while defensively “holding” another enemy seeking to exploit the opportunity. Once the first MCO was complete, the theory ran, forces from the first MCO could be shifted to decisively defeat the second foe.
For reasons political and military, “win-hold-win” was a loser, as Aspin tacitly admitted later that same month in speech to flag officers assembled at Andrews Air Force Base. Reversing course, Aspin called instead for a “win-win” strategy: A force structure capable of decisively defeating two foes simultaneously.
It was all a grand farce: President Bill Clinton had, in February of 1993, already announced a $120 billion “peace dividend” extracted out of the last Bush administration defense budget. The force was jiggered to fit the numbers rather than the mission. Eight years later, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld famously went to war with the force he had rather than the one he wished to have had.
Blame enough to go around: Les Aspin probably never thought the force would actually be engaged in two MCOs. Don Rumsfeld probably though that the force he had was sufficient to the task at hand. Both of them were wrong.
And here we are.
What’s the point?
A new administration is coming, with a new set of priorities. Choices will be made, and oxen will be gored, and all of that is a natural, and indeed beneficial result – elections have consequences. But if, in the cinematically critical “first 100 days”, a number is drawn from the air that the strategy will then be tailored to, consider the possibility that you are once again being deceived. Keep in mind that the serving general and flag officers chosen to execute that strategy were not selected to their posts for a willingness to say “no.” They get paid to get it done despite the gap between mission requirement and force capability.
Now look back up at that chart once more, and remember those upon whom the burden falls of closing that gap.
Who are paying for it still.
Wow. You’ve just ruined my New Year’s celebrations (such as they were, given the future in some 20 days anyway). Now I’ll be a little more sober (perhaps somber?) in my ruminations.
Ah, well. We do indeed elect whom we deserve. But this is indeed something of which to be cognizant.
Happy New Year, all.
The concept of a Constitutional Republic is supposed to prevent that kind of trash (that’s history you here laughing in the background).
The reality is we are looking at another result of man’s fallen condition. There is no one from outside to hold the government accountable because the Governors are paying off the Governees. So the political class simply does what they want. A friend who is retired from teaching PoliSci used say “what ever you can get away with is constitutional.” Sadly, operationally, he was correct. We see the results in our country everyday.
One thing the Paladins forget however, the Legions themselves. Jerry Pournelle says is succinctly, “beware the fury of the Legions.” Strong, honorable men do not appreciate being used for political ends while their sacrifices are ridiculed and wasted.
The U.S. mainstream media forgot to mention that our fighting men and women have made such impressive progress in Iraq. Could they be saving that statement for, let’s see, sometime following 20 Jan 09?
A mighty gap indeed Lex.
Yet our service men and women continue to close it.
They are the best.
S/F
Golden
The control over the IZ is not so ‘relinquished’ as all that. Sure the palace was turned over, and the Air Force SPs are not the sole authority for arresting people inside any more. But then we’ve had IP in here all along as well. The checkpoints are still jointly manned.
There’s too much chance of corruption and reprisals by the IP (MoI is rotten with it) to let it go cold turkey, and they just can’t guarantee safety for the Iraqi politicians who reside inside either, so even the Iraqi pols don’t want the US forces off the ECPs.
How I remember the days of (2) MCOs at once post USSR..ahh the days….
Perspective on “MCO”- In OEF it took 2 weeks to conduct MCO..OIF: 1.5 months or less.. Nope. It’s that other part- occupation and pacification that’s hardest and wasn’t part of anybody’s serious planning. Now we know and even B.H.O. knows I hope…Stilt puppet crowd will NEVER get it.
re “remember those upon whom the burden falls of closing that gap.’
Amen brother.
b2
bastidge, can a SF operator go out and kick down someone’s door now without an Iraqi issued court warrant? Nope.
Are all those detainees brought in by the US going to stay in jail without warrants issued by Iraqi judges? Nope, although the JAGs are very, very busy right now.
Can the US even collect biometric data anymore outside of its own garrisons? Without an Iraqi judge’s court order, of course?
I’ve mentioned before that a SOFA with Iraq was a bad idea because of its implications to Shari’a. The SOFA Iran signed with the USA catapulted Khomeini to the forefront way back when (1960s, kids), and in the world of muslim malcontents (a billion or so, MOL), there have been rumblings about this SOFA, too, being a kufr act.
It has great, great potential to go to Hell in a handbasket. Pray that it doesn’t, because the options left to us now aren’t pretty.
Zane,
Oh, I’m not complacent about the SOFA. It leaves us open to reprisals- speculation is that BW is about to be hassled big time- but the problem for the Iraqis with that is that the vast majority of Blackwater contractors are with State, not DoD. So they are still on diplo status.
I think that the goal of turning this place over in an arbitrary time frame was never a good idea from a “security of the region” standpoint. Japan and Germany were not turned around this quickly, and Iraq has not been either.
Still and all, there has been some progress here. And regardless, this is the way the chips have fallen.
Turning over the palace the other day was a big deal. Sensitive enough that we had to avoid the area all day. Closed the PX and the road around about. Very annoying. The SOFA is a solid change, but some other things are more symbolic. It’s going to take a while to shake out and evaluate where it all stands. Hopefully, by that time I won’t be here any more. Right now I am sked to leave on the 21st. The changeover on New Year’s Eve hasn’t greatly affected my daily routine, yet. We have some extra barricades and checkpoints up for the nonce, but doubt they’ll stay that way for long. The whole point is that things are supposedly ‘normalizing’, a state of affairs that DoS has been pushing for a long time, even when it didn’t make much practical sense from the worm’s eye view.
Speaking of DoS, they’re not TELLING their people they are on lockdown, but policy seems to be encouraging them to take a fortress mentality inside the new embassy compound, as they provide goodies (the PX doesn’t have
any alcohol, but the store inside the Embassy has Guinness among many other choices, and I don’t have a NEC badge- grr) and facilities in there, and reduce the number of vehicles available, and otherise just make it less easy to move about the IZ.
Bastige, copy all. I’m no fan of the entire effort, as all here know, but I’m very glad of what has been gained over the past year, and very nervous about how fast it can all be lost.
Maybe you can pay someone with an NEC badge, kinda like when you were in high school…
I’ve quoted you and linked to you here: http://consul-at-arms2.blogspot.com/2009/01/re-transition.html
Consul-At-Arms reminded me that there is another possible way to inflict grave damage on all our progress in Iraq. The One can also decided to appoint somebody like L Paul Bremer to the position of Ambassador to Iraq. Let’s us recall the names of previous ambassadors to Iraq: April Glaspie, Joseph C. Wilson.
Anyone know if Ambassador Crocker plans to stay on?
Granted, such projections are pretty much useless, but at this rate, 5475 dead Iraqis by year’s end due to Sunni / Shi’a violence.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090104/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_iraq
BAGHDAD – A woman hiding among Iranian pilgrims with a bomb strapped under her black robe killed more than three dozen people on Sunday outside a Baghdad mosque during ceremonies commemorating the death of one of Shiite Islam’s most revered saints.
The suicide attack, the most recent in a series that has killed more than 60 people in less that a week, was the latest to mar the transfer of many security responsibilities from the U.S. military to Iraqi forces.
The attack in Baghdad’s northern Shiite neighborhood of Kazimiyah, which also and wounded at least 72 people, comes two days after a suicide bomber slipped into a luncheon at a tribal leader’s home south of Baghdad and killed at least 23 people. More than a dozen other people have died in other attacks since New Year’s Day.