White: King’s pawn to King’s three.
At 10:29 p.m. last evening the Navy confirmed it hit a falling and potentially dangerous defense intelligence satellite using an SM-3 missile fired from the deck of the USS Lake Erie in the Northern Pacific.
Officials say the missile likely destroyed its intended target, a 1,000 pound tank of toxic hydrazine fuel.
“There are good first indications the shot was successful. There was an explosion on impact and over 80 pieces of debris were detected after initial assessments,” an official said.
Black: King’s Bishop’s pawn, to KBp three.
North Korea announced Tuesday it was preparing to send a satellite into orbit in what American and South Korean officials believe will be a provocative test of a long-range missile capable of reaching parts of North America.
White: Queen to King’s Knight four.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton warned that such a “provocative act” could jeopardize the stalled talks on supplying North Korea with aid and other concessions in exchange for dismantling its nuclear program.
Black: King’s Rook’s pawn to KR five.
North Korea declared last month that it was making “brisk headway” in preparations to send a communications satellite into space, and notified aviation and maritime authorities that the launch would take place between April 4 and 8, between 11 a.m. and 4 p.m.
White: Queen to King’s Knight six.
The US has deployed two warships with anti-missile capabilities in the waters off Japan as tensions mount over North Korea’s plans to test-fire a long-range ballistic missile capable of striking Alaska…
The US Navy spokesman said the two destroyers – the USS McCain and USS Chafee – equipped with Aegis technology capable of tracking and destroying missiles had left Sasebo port in southwestern Japan. “I would say we are ready for any contingencies,” he added.
Checkmate. That is, of course, if everyone has the stones to follow through.
This could really get interesting.
Update: White resigns.
The United States has no plans to shoot down the North Korean rocket, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said Wednesday in an interview with CNN’s Jill Dougherty, but will raise the issue with the U.N. Security Council if Pyongyang carries out a launch.
A good chess player always knows when to resign. I wish we had one.
The moves depend on the game being played. I think that in the particular form of chess being played by Obama and his friends, the primary opponent is always *other Americans*.
If an Aegis is fired and indeed destroys the NK missile, it will become politically very difficult for Obama to walk away from large-scale deployment of missile defense technology. Hence, it seems unlikely that he will authorize such firing.
Prove me wrong, Obama.
Seems risky unless we have more confidence in our capability than public utterances suggest. What would be the reaction if we fired and missed?
Probably give the anti-anything crowd more ammunition to gut this promising capability. And if we hit the thing one can imagine the outrage from the usual suspects – not something Mr. “make nice” seems likely to want to be exposed to.
Didn’t he just tell everyone this week he had no stake in being controversial? But then a lot of what he said this week was plainly misleading to put it kindly.
Nice to ponder though – interesting to imagine the spin Sec. State would have to put on our decision to utilize this technology that those of her ilk have for so long dismissed as impossible fantasy of right wing kooks.
A very good friend in the know (being a VADM does have its rewards, I guess) affirms that “we” – whoever that is – are confident in USN ability to knock it out of the sky. Good radar cross-section, more propellant than they need, no low observeable paint/skin, so should be a nice target for Aegis to track.
I think DF above hits the nail – “can” and “will” are two diameterically opposed positions. I too fear that the Big O doesn’t have the cajones to shoot it down, and risk the fall-out from the fear-mongering left. “De-stabilizing” the peninsula and all. Will be interesting to see if in the week prior to launch any movement of NK force structure occurs – movement of munitions, postering along the border, or even movement of their technicians away from the Yongbyon complex. The second thing to watch is just exactly how many Iranians are in the grandstand at launch getting a first hand look at their new purchase.
May you live in interesting times.
Kinda makes you wonder what the Chinese had to say to Little Kimmie during his last visit, don’t it?
http://www.nkeconwatch.com/
I just love the NK vernacular – so flowery, so peaceful, so democratic.
http://nosint.blogspot.com/2009/03/missile-set-up-in-moosudan.html
anyone got better hi-res imagery?
Of course, with a VMI grad in command (a Brother Rat of mine), MCCAIN will get the job done.
For the record, and from public records on the POR for Aegis BMD, the Chafee is not a BMD ship.
- SJS
the shot will be fired by McCain.
Sweet.
A unfortunate accident on the pad strikes me as a nice solution.
Last iteration back in ’06 only made it to about t+40 secs before it blew up…
Make no mistake – there are a lot of balls in play here, some public, many not so. There are also linkages outside the DPRK that include Iran and the succesful Safir shot earlier this year (DPRK and Iran have quite the cooperative development scheme going).
- SJS
President Obama dealing with the threat from North Korea using the USS McCain…who would have thunk.
I thought Japan was going to (try to) intercept it. That’s what the Ministry of Defense said anyway:
http://www.koreatimes.co.kr/www/news/nation/2009/03/116_41945.html
The DPRK hasn’t received this much attention in some time.
At least we have our strategic priorities straight…
http://cdrsalamander.blogspot.com/
Diversity Thursday…
I’m trying to figure this one out… as long as it’s not going to hit anything… why bother?
I mean, okay – nice chance for some live-fire anti-missile training, but why crank up the rhetoric and give Kim a chance to complain about something the comes up and goes down… in the middle of the ocean?
Well, it appears to run contrary to the provisions of UNSC resolution 1718:
I guess that’s important, again.
Problem is – neither Russia nor China would support anything with teeth (or even a tooth) in it, so all we have with this UNSCR is a finger wag and furrowed brows. Besides, we also need to see what the hand that’s not waving is up to…
- SJS
I hope the Navy also puts a shooter between Japan and Hawaii, in case they let it fly over Japan.
…UNSC resolution 1718:
If we shoot it down, it will sure be comforting to see that UN resolutions actually authorize what they say they authorise… now that we have a Democrat in the White House.
Problem with the UNSCR is that it lacks teeth (or even a tooth). Without Russia and China’s support, all we have is a finger wag and furrowed brow – no sanctions.
Of course, while we’re busy watching this waving hand, there is a second on which we need to keep close watch
- SJS
I predict noise & bluster – from both sides – but no actual shooting, even if it is launched. Like others here, I seriously doubt that Obama is up to the task of going toe-to-toe with the Norks and staring ‘em down, or, if need be, shooting ‘em down.
Reagan would’ve…
Reagan had stones. Obama is merely the first coward in a nation of cowards. Courage is mostly moral, and this bunch is as immoral as they come. Their god is their belly (Phillipians 3:19).
QM,
With all due respect I think it’s unduly harsh to broadly cast charges of cowardice and immorality vis-a-vis BO. You might not like or agree with his decision, but without specific proof you are stooping to the level of those who cast the same type of vitriol towards Bush – a practice that was heavily disdained on this sight over the last several years.
I don’t much agree with BO’s approach to NK either, but I don’t believe the information provided to date proves his decision is coming from a lack of courage and immorality. He obviously views the situation differently. Guess we’ll see where it leads.
Respectfully – Brian
Ok, Brian; fair enough.
Would you be satisfied if I called him a fracking idiot, instead?
I think that by the end of the 20th century we managed to eke out the last useful results from the “don’t be mean, please” approach…
Barry, alas, seems to belong to that group which really does believe that any problem can be solved by a sit-down and a face-to-face. This is not cowardice, but it is incredibly naive.
How about shooting a telemetry bird?
Given that the SM-3 “warhead” is a hit-to-kill vehicle, doesn’t matter much if you talk about a telemetry bird. In fact, the SM-3 test shots we’ve done to date include a telemetry downlink that incorporates a last snapshot of the target just before impact. Talk about “freeze frame”
- SJS
Well, Madame Secretary may say one thing, but my timecard bespeaks otherwise…
- SJS
And my tax dollars are well spent…at least for this case.
I’d like to think we’ve communicated to Japan that we would not be sorry if they succeeded in shooting this rocket down.
If they hit and cause an outcry, the Japanese can claim that they acted in what they considered self-defense. If they miss, it’s probably better for both them and us than if we shoot and miss.
Why is everyone so concerned about missing? See comment #3 above. There’s no way we’d miss, especially with a salvo shot. Engage track with Eagles!
I’m certainly not the expert in this area, but isn’t there a difference between the flight profile of a BM and an orbital-intending space shot?
Can the difference be determined within such time that, if it’s clearly on a BM profile, a high percentage shot by McCain is still available? If the answer is yes, then leave USS McCain on station, say nothing further about the situation and if the NK’s shoot on a BM profile just knock it down and go home. No need to crow about it. That’s what I’d do.
It’s just too bad HRC broadcast our intentions already.
ll too often passivity is a case of “I don’t wanna hear it.” It doesn’t mean there is no latent courage. But after 54 years in this vale of tears, and being a serious student of human nature since I was very young teener, I have reached a conclusion quite opposed to your own. You’re mileage may vary, but so far I have rarely been wrong on the matter.
[...] America or Israel? White resigns [...]
A recent JC made the statement that the BO administration was going to focus on the most likely threats to the USA not necessarily the most dangerous threats. How does Norks lofting a ICBM towards North America fit into their threat matrix? Since Iran just successfully orbited something using NORK technology I got to suspect this launch has a good chance of doing what the NORKS aim to do. So is this a likely threat or a most dangerous threat?
China launches missiles into space too-they are hardly a friendly power. Based on your presumption above-any nation that launches an orbital mission is a potential threat to the US. Shall we start shooting down Arianne rockets out of French Guiana for target practice?
This whole thing requires a carefully thought out response-and it has to be thought out ahead of time, because there will be no time to figure it out on the fly.
Brian’s point about knowing what the missile is doing is key. Our response will have to predicated on that……
How about we shoot the missle down, but deny we did it.
At the same time a message is delivered to Al Jazera, from some group ( sic PETA, a Mexican Drug Cartel, or irrate chimney sweeps for that matter ) claiming responsiblity.
If the Nk’s don’t like it–our dipolamitic response-Blow Me!!
SC, InTx, I’m afeared the efficacy of that “diplomatic response” …is not all that it’s cracked up to be…or so I’ve been told…Best
I like that Texans idea Snake, don’t stifle creativity.
Maybe we can send you over there to meet with the little dude with a supeeney in one hand and a Gerber in-ta-other!
b2