We’ve spent so much time talking about buying General Motors, hurling billions at the banking industry and trillions at the economy while trying to determine how to pay for free health care that no one has asked how all of this is to be paid for. With the completion of the most recent Quadrennial Defense Review the time is rip for the Obama administration to scrutinize the DoD portfolio for savings. On account of all that wasteful national defense spending. The tenor of this article by RADM Terry Kraft leads me to believe that the aircraft carrier program may once again have its head in the noose.
The admiral makes all the customary points about the inherent flexibility and power of tactical naval aviation, as well as attempting to rebut the latest “survivability” argument in light of China’s promised DF-21 maritime area denial weapon:
When looking at carrier threats, much has been made of China’s DF-21/CSS-5 antiship ballistic missile. (Proceedings) went so far as to feature a picture of a carrier (and unlucky cruiser) blowing up on its May cover. While it is important to look closely at weapon innovations of other countries, it is just as important to not over react to what may or may not be on the horizon for China or any other nation. Last year it was the low-end swarm attack that concerned analysts, now the DF-21 has provided new ammunition for the old argument of aircraft carrier vulnerability. While the range of the DF-21 is under debate, what remains central to the success of a 1,500-km missile is targeting and locating data. The strident article from Dr. Erickson and Mr. Yang (using information primarily from Chinese field manuals) in the May Proceedings devoted exactly one sentence to the task of locating and targeting an aircraft carrier, stating that it would be a “key technical challenge.” In fact finding a ship at sea in the middle of thousands of square miles of ocean, even an aircraft carrier, is extremely difficult. The question remains as to whether potential adversaries have the level of persistent accuracy needed to stage antiship ballistic missile attacks. Should targets not cooperate by radiating military radars or communication gear, the challenge becomes nearly insurmountable given the current technical state of play…
The DF-21 discussion is useful, however, in that it highlights a key tenet of China’s possible military strategy in the Pacific: area denial. If the Chinese can push naval striking forces farther out to sea, those platforms become less effective. Long-range missiles, submarines, and even a future Chinese aircraft carrier will undoubtedly be part of that mix. At a time when things like the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) and budget pressures are coming to a head, some of these “threats” seem to have taken on a life of their own.
This quadrennial discussion about the continued validity of the carrier striking force has been around at least since Gary Hart went a-cruising on the Monkey Business, and probably before that. But preemptively withdrawing from the maneuver space of the sea to a proposed weapons system even before it has been developed and deployed would be offering a potential adversary a stunning victory at the price of a few PowerPoint slides. But sometimes the more dangerous foe is already within the gates – Congress has sunk more ships in the last 50 years than any overseas enemy could do, and in this they all too often find allies within the Pentagon willing to play the old “divide and conquer” game among the services.
So that clamor you’re hearing under the admiral’s article is a clash of arms within the Pentagon, as the services squabble between themselves over the expectation of a diminished slice of the national pie. Admiral Kraft’s article is a call for Navy to man the parapets, and if his arguments seem time worn, it’s only that we seem to find ourselves in the same discussions every eight years or so. If it seems silly to have to make the same old arguments every time the bureaucracy changes, that’s only because bureaucracies tend to be full of very silly people. Too, as administrations change, priorities change. Carrier strike groups are expensive, and so would be a public health care option.
Meanwhile, Missouri Congressman Tod Akin asks the not unreasonable question – especially in light of the European BMD row-back – whether the QDR has been rigged to meet a budget number rather than a force requirement:
(Given) the lack of analysis and planning that came with the 2010 budget, many of us in Congress are concerned that the QDR will simply be a gigantic rubber-stamp for President Obama, rather than a thoughtful analysis of the present and future defense needs of our country. Our country needs an honest review of the national security situation, not just a pre-determined justification for Obama’s recent and possible future defense cuts.
As a holdover from the Bush administration, SecDef may get cut a little slack in Congress contrasted to an Obama nominee. He would be able to recommend cuts that might be sharply questioned otherwise. As the tussle begins over the POM-2012 Future Years Defense Plan, we’ll see how useful Mr. Gates has been to the president, and whether that will save him after the ax comes down more generally. Or whether, having done what he had been called upon to do, his work within The Building will be done.
“,,,Whether the QDR has been rigged to meet a budget number rather than a force requirement.”
Ya Think? Does the sun rise in the east? Is a dog’s d**k red? Does a bear do it in the woods? Has it EVER been otherwise?
EVER???
If we fielded a force to match the true threat requirement we would have 50 add USAF Air Wings, the Marines would have 3 more divisions and the Army a minimum of 25 with AT LEAST
18 Carriers for the Navy–not to mention all the support and specialized types ships needed too numerous to run-down here.
If we were serious about reality, that is…..
You pushing for more Carriers? Do you realize that LeMay is now spinning supersonically in his grave and will rise to haunt you to the end of your days?
Seriously, speaking to one of his aids who was writing that the Soviets were the enemy, reportedly said, “The Soviets are the opponent, The Navy, now that’s the enemy!” Even if you are familiar with the background to that, it’s hard not to at least chuckle about it.
Yeah, QM, I’ve ALWAYS been a carrier affectionado, even in my active duty days–although I had to stay in the closet.
Carrier aviation is a highly inefficient way of doing business, but it’s a highly flexible one, and sometimes it’s the ONLY way–which makes it a highly EFFECTIVE tool, however “inefficient.”
And as Sh1fty points out down-thread, wew’ve been living off our momentum from the Cold War. We’re like the powerless final stage of an ICBM headed down-range with a new target re-programmed but no propellant to boost us further down range to reach it. We are on the backside/downside of the parabola in an irreversible free-fall.
All our enemies have to do is wait us out, as we will eventually grind to a halt as we wear out every system we have. We need more of EVERYTHING. I once told someone that it was an absolute miracle that we were able to fund, improve and maintain the force for as long as we did post-Vietnam. This was largely due not only to Regan, but paradoxically enough, a still “blue-dog” democratically controlled South that was full of pro-military conservative types whose Congressional delegations served as a break on left-wing anti-military/war sentiment when the Democrats controlled Congress. Now that this state of affairs no longer holds, there is ABSOLUTELY NO BREAK on the left-wing pacifist crazies in Congress–especially with Obama in the Presidency. And even with Regan the anti-war, anti-military tide was still running so strong that the Wall came down only moments (figuratively speaking) before the majority in the US (led by Ted Kennedy, btw) and the West were preparing to cede victory to the Soviets by an unwillingness to fund further force modernization.
It was the US, not the thousands of WP/SU missiles pointed at the UK that the British housewives were protesting against when they chained themselves to the chain-link perimeter fence at Greenham-Commons when Regan installed cruise missiles there. AMERICA was considered the aggressor and an Imperialist threat to world peace by a huge segment of public opinion in the West–thanks to 40 yrs of KGB inspired propaganda echoed by all-too gullible useful idiots in the West. Had the SU only hung on for a few more years it would have all fallen into their hands. Obama is but the inevitable result of those deep extreme left cultural and political tidal forces that were strongly at play even then. Given the nature of the sociocultural trends that are at play, I’m amazed that we have lasted as long as we have. The Soviet Union collapsed ten minutes before we were ready to surrender to it–Islam and the PRC won’t be so accommodating.
And don’t even get me started about Obamas’ latest ABM moves….
I told my brother (retired CPO) not 2 weeks ago the BO would start to cut the carriers. What a mess we are in.
$8-10 billions buys a lot of SM-3s and X-47 Pegasus UAVs. Plus the foreign birth rate will decrease dramatically without all those naval aviators being on liberty. Should see commensurate cuts in State Dept personnel overseas as they won’t have as much business dealing with young ladies “in that family way”.
And re: targeting CVNs at sea, some DARPA type will design a containerized reflective balloon hanging off the back porch, that will inflate with a pressurized gas, give a planform radar reflective signature, have a heat source, and motor into the wind at 8 kts.
It may buy a lot of SM-3s, but you need a place to put them.
There’s only 21 BMD-capable CG/DDGs and with the single-crew rotation ratio (4.5 ships to maintain 1 on-station year-round in EUCOM/PACOM AORs, and 6 ships to maintain 1 in CENTCOM) that means you’re only going to have 4 on station at any given time; the rest will be in transit or working up for deployment.
I don’t know that one or two boats to cover all of Europe (presumably the other two would be in PACOM somewhere) is a good solid BMD solution. Would be nice to have more of the 77 Aegis platforms upgraded for BMD service.
Maybe they can find some stimulus money for that.
One would like to think that the 25 billion or so given to GM to save their butts might have been better spent on upgrading Aegis to save our NATION.
Just sayin’…
Ahh, but the recepients of that money would not have been the UAW!
Alas, too disgustingly true. I agree with Pournelle on this one. The stimulus would have had a better effect if we had spent money on upgrading military hardware across the board. It would have had a far better effect, and resulted in a more capable military as well. That the Obamination didn’t do it tells us where his real priorities lie.
[...] in what one presumes is a pre-emptive shot at preserving a slice of the shrinking DoD pie (via Neptunus Lex). Tags: astronautics, [...]
Well, with the PLAN’s demonstrated ability to acquire, track, and apparently, target, USN warships, it might not be that big a deal for a sub to provide mid-course telemetry for the missile.
Having said that, I see the D-21 as an area-denial weapon, forcing the USN to rework doctrine when within the range of the system.
Additionally, they don’t actually HAVE to target the carriers. they could more easily target fixed locations, such as forward-deployed supply depots needed to sustain warfighting capabilities.
Why target the carriers? target the supply depots and the AG’s AO’s, etc. Cut the supply lines and the war is over a lot sooner, with less than optimal results.. so to speak..
Supply lines are easy prey. It’s how we defeated the Japanese, remember?
The danger of hitting the shore facilities of a nuclear power is that it could quickly escalate into nuclear war. If we did mix it up with the PRC, it is possible to fight it out at sea without things spreading. But if they hit Guam or we hit their naval and air bases, the whole thing could spiral out of control. Even in the Falklands War, the Brits could have used their Vulcan bombers to strike Argentinian airfields. That could have put a dent in the anti-shipping strikes that hurt the Royal Navy, but the Brits didn’t want things to escalate.
That, of course, is not to say that the Chinese wouldn’t do just that….
Yup,
And what I am contemplating is the PLAN using those missiles with a large conventional warhead, or possibly chemical munitions, against a shore installation. Considering the weight that platform could boost, a Conventional warhead would still be a significant strike.
I, too, shudder to think of employing nukes at any level, but I also have to game for it in the plans, because I cannot assume that my enemy will have the same safeguards or over-riding concerns about collateral damage(s) that I do.
I guess what I am saying is that at this stage, considering the limited number of ABM/BMDS capable hulls we have, we’d have to make a choice between defending the fleet at sea, or the supply depots ashore.
As was pointed out during the Cold War. the Soviets didn’t target a whole lot of our military installations. They targeted steel mills, shipyards, mines, railheads, bridges, etc. The idea was not so much to destroy the enemy fleet, but to deny the enemy the ability to build or repair vessels and other equipments. Ships at sea have a limited operational shelf life. Once they use up the food and fuel and warheads, that’s it.
Respects,
Actually the Brits did launch one raid against an Argentinian airfield with their Vulcans. I think with tanking and other issues they only got two over the target with only a small handful of bombs hitting a runway. I also think that with herculanean crew effort it was a sortie launched and recovered in Britain.
quote: “Actually the Brits did launch one raid against an Argentinian airfield with their Vulcans. I think with tanking and other issues they only got two over the target with only a small handful of bombs hitting a runway. I also think that with herculanean crew effort it was a sortie launched and recovered in Britain.”
Actually no, it was Port Stanley they attacked, the airfield in the Falklands, with a Vulcan: (scroll down to ‘Black Buck Raids’)
AVRO VULCAN HISTORY
Well, I guess you could consider Port Stanley an “Argentinian” airfield, but since we were clearly talking about airfields on the mainland I do stand corrected. It ends up the Vulcans were also flying out of Ascension Island, not from Britain herself.
21 sounds like enough to cover the United States. I’m not aware of any other targets that demand our suffrage and extension of a missile shield now that the WONE has stabbed the Czeck Republic and Poland in the back.
Have you noted how all of our “friendly muslim allies” routinely join the fundamentalists in the condemnation votes at every international fora? It’s almost like we don’t have so much as one single ally in the muslim world. I’ve reached the point where I am willing to let them enjoy the fruits of Wahabism and all the petro$ their Saudi masters have spent to raise 2 generations of foul scumbags right under their noses. Jacobins always go home in the end. Good riddance.
You’re all forgetting that everyone loves us now, and we won’t have any wars because those nasty neocons are gone forever… :p
To stir the pot some more – http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/sep/20/barack-obama-us-nuclear-weapons
“Barack Obama ready to slash US nuclear arsenal
Pentagon told to map out radical cuts as president prepares to chair UN talks”
We’re gonna get hurt in whatever fight comes next. We’ve lived off the Cold War left overs for the last 20yrs. We have kept putting off the physical investment and without some rapid and wise investment (I know those rarely go together…)in to our forces to maintain the level of operations we’ve grown accustomed to, we’re going to loose our current range of capabilities.
Yeah. This sucks.
What also is bad is if you check out War News Updates. Apparently the Asian and European newspapers are reporting this story but not the American ones, save Drudgereport, which I remember visiting for “fun” about a decade ago and has now almost sadly become one of the only medias I actually trust.
Another whopper: Madeline Albright told an audience in Russia that the US no longer seeks to be the premier nation in the world. These are the type of people we now have RUNNING THE COUNTRY!!!
And now ladies and gentlemen, after unilaterally disarming the world of nukes and restraining the evil Israelis from the peace-loving Iranians Obama’s next trick will be to revive the ancient and extinct race of vegan unicorns that once brought untold prosperity to the land through extravagant taxes . . . that is right after he gets to lowering the oceans and providing better and more health care to all of us for less.
Where’s the sterno, I don’t think normal alcohol will solve my problems tonight
All the sabre-rattlin’ aside, I hope cutting CVN’s isn’t really in the works. That would reduce my morale greatly.
V/R
p.s. Am I right in thinking that we just closed an airbase in Uzbekistan or something? …So that’s why the portly AF isn’t using their F-22′s in AFGNSTN. I KNOW! Let’s just remove all air power from our theaters. Baby n’ bath-water, like.
That and the Air Force labours under the impression it would be mighty unsportsmanlike to kick down the door on aircraft and radars the enemy hasn’t funded, developed and deployed yet.