Two points made in this Reuters article lead me to believe that NCA is going to accede to General Stan McChrystal’s request for additional forces:
Defense Secretary Robert Gates blamed the Taliban’s revival on a past failure to deploy enough troops to Afghanistan and said U.S. forces would not withdraw whatever the result of President Barack Obama’s strategy review. “We are not leaving Afghanistan. This discussion is about next steps forward and the president has some momentous decisions to make…”
OK, so SecDef casts some parting shots at his departed CinC, but the Afghanistan campaign remains front burner and the problem is identified as being too few boots on deck. Got it.
Secondly:
Seeking to shore up support, Obama invited senior Democratic and Republican lawmakers to the White House on Tuesday to discuss the war. He will meet his national security team to continue the policy review on Wednesday and Friday.
Inviting opposition lawmakers to the White House – the first time since last spring, I believe – can only be because the president is leaning towards sending more troops and needs to guard his flanks on the left by buttressing his support on the right.
The rumors of tension between the forward commander and the Commander-in-Chief are much more damaging to the former than the latter. Keeping McChrystal “in the tent” will be critical as Afghanistan either begins to stabilize or unspools. The general has made clear that he believes no other strategy has a decent chance for success and would probably choose to step aside if he’s not supported by those that put him in place. Having him on the outside as a disaffected retiree is a potential political nightmare.
As a way of demonstrating his Solomonic wisdom, the president may try to split the baby by offering up something less than the 40,000 ground forces McChrystal is rumored to have requested. But I doubt it: Any escalation in the “good war” – always more a political distinction on the left than a moral one – will alienate his base. Once you’ve gone in for a penny, might as well go in for the pound. When this happens, it really does become McChrystal’s war.
I’d like to believe that this decision, when it comes, will be based on national strategic concerns rather than political ones.
Either way, it’s still taking too long.
Lex, that penultimate sentence is long on “hope” and requires a heck of a lot of “change” in the core of this administration. Notice I said “core” and not “soul”, for there is none of the second in this administration.
They are caught well and good between what they said and what they believe. But this is setting up for a rerun of 1973-1975. I predict:
1) there will be an augmentation, but I would be surprised if it gave McChrystal what he asked for.
2) after an indecent interval, just covering the “fighting season” in Af, the administration will declaim the Taliban on the run and the Af forces sufficiently build up and trained that they can take over,
3) we will pull out and Af will fall without an embarrassing picture of a last helicopter on the roof
4) result — His Wonderfulness can claim that the corrupt Af government lost the war. HE didn’t.
And that last shifting of the blame is all the White House occupants are worrying about making stick.
Lex,
“The One” doesn’t change his socks without pondering the political ramifications or consulting polls and focus groups. What makes you think that he will suddenly care about “national strategic concerns?”
I think he should fire McCrystal and send George Soros and Bill Ayers to finish the job. And I think ACORN is looking for some new work, too. Lots of communities that need organizing over there.
ACORN on the front lines? I really, really like the idea…..
LOTS of manpower/femalepower there, xformed. Seems like we’ve got an inexhaustable supply from that source.
Saaayyyyy…………..Can you say “human wave” tactics? Kills two birds with one stone–literally.
Oh man, I hope you’re right, Lex.
OT, but a possible ill wind that will blow: DjO has a blogging team to spin the blogosphere.
OK…note the post indicated this may be a government wide phenomena…Yeah..now we are funding legions (yes, Biblical reference intended) of bloggers, when the economy is headed for hard aground, to make sure this appear as The WON desires.
Brings a whole new meaning to “seminar callers (bloggers)” doesn’t it?
Now, assume there are said counter-blogging teams in the works to spin this mess of AF, The WON and the General…not too far to move to guess it’s in the works.
Damage Control 2.0, I sez….
You may be right Lex. Only Nixon could go to China…
Agree with you partway, Flat. Obama could sell the Af thing to the Dems in a way an Elephant never could (the Nixon-China thing) IF he were of a mind to. But that’s THE question, isn’t it? And while I guess we’ll get our ans shortly, and Lex seems to think more positively about the prospects for firm support than I, my worries on that score stem from the fact that while Nixon had a long, strong record of anti-Communism; it is far, far easier for the strong to relent and reverse course to talk to the enemy than for the weak and irresolute to suddenly develop a will of iron and a steel spine in the advocacy of expanded hostilities and use of deadly force.
Let me explain it to Obama: The more you dither, the more our troops die, and the more you are charged with negligent homicide, since, as CinC, you are responsible for their safety,
Either go all in with a desire to win at all cots, or bring ALL of them ho,me RIGHT NOW and suffd4t the consequences of your actions.
Respects,
Frankly, I think the timing for this surge as being somewhat ill-conceived. We’re nearing the end of the annual ‘Killing Season’ and, politics and strategics aside, we’re going to see the insurgents looking for a place to burrow into in the not too distant future.
That leaves our guys with not a lot to do but burrow in themselves, given that the only reasonable combat action left in the Af highlands, IMO, would be air strikes on Taliban winter wonderland hideaways. We know The One, given his aversion to our ‘raiding villages and killing innocent civilians’, won’t allow anything of the sort. So that’s out.
Our guys can develop relations with locals near their bases, but the civilians with or near the Taliban are going to be unavailable. Without being able to win the hearts and minds of those folks near the Taliban strongholds, it seems to me we’re just squandering human resources in the face of indeterminate WH leadership; pi$$ing into the wind comes to mind.
All the way around, IMO, comes a winter of suffering and troops away from home for next to nothing. Not a good return on our investment. Now would be a good time to work up a strategy for spring, and then head into it tooth and nail with a Div(reinf)/Corps level number of rested and trained war fighters. Then we can get something done. Now is not the time.
Mongo, I would not expect any additinal forces to be boot in the dust until after the first of the year and more likely take 6 months to be fully committed. Reference the Iraq surge, decision was made in late Nov-early Dec. full implementation happened in June.