It now appears that a final determination on Afghan troop levels will not be made until that country’s troubled election had been resolved:
As an audit of Afghanistan’s Aug. 20 election ground toward a conclusion, American officials pressed President Hamid Karzai to accept a runoff vote or share power with his main rival, Abdullah Abdullah, a former foreign minister. Although Mr. Karzai’s support appeared likely to fall below 50 percent in the final count, together he and Mr. Abdullah received 70 percent, in theory enough to forge a unity government with national credibility.
The question at the heart of the matter, said President Obama’s chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, is not “how many troops you send, but do you have a credible Afghan partner for this process that can provide the security and the type of services that the Afghan people need?”
The Karzai government has proven to be something of a disaster, but this is both heavy handed – the Afghan president’s people are already decrying “foreign meddling” – and probably too clever by half: Governmental corruption is endemic to the region, but the last thing that Afghanistan needs is a corrupt, divided government with two antagonistic camps fighting over the spoils and undercutting one another.
Noble in theory – who could be against a free and fair run-off election? – this is high mindedness with an escape clause: It provides Washington a casus recedo to abandon what the president once campaigned on as the “good war” against terror should Karzai not bend to Washington’s will. You can almost hear the talking heads six months hence: You know, we tried and all. Gave it our best. Just couldn’t find a credible partner.
Terrible thing, actually. Bush’s fault.
Meanwhile, it’s intriguing that Emanuel is the one chosen to carry this message rather than DoD Secretary Robert Gates or SecState Hillary Clinton (who is once again busy airbrushing herself into history – last time Bosnia, this time Ireland). The Chief of Staff position is probably the second most powerful political role in the country, and Emanuel is among the most influential advisers to fill it in modern history. Still, Emanuel’s portfolio is far richer in partisan warfare than diplomatic or military.
Meanwhile, perhaps sensing weakness, the flow of Western terrorist recruits to training camps in Afghanistan and Pakistan is increasing despite the president’s Nobel Peace Prize.
I see this ending badly.
Interesting article by Gary Kasparov, maybe the top Grandmaster ever and someone who has intimate first-hand knowledge of Russian Politics, which I find inscrutable. For instance, why are they so unconcerned about a new nuclear power on their border?
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123172143660372413.html
Ending badly? Gee, ya think?
I mean, just because it was announced by Obama’s #1 political head-hunter?
“I see this ending badly.”
I know you deceived me, now here’s a surprise.
I know that you have ’cause there’s magic in my eyes
I can see for miles and miles and miles and miles and miles–Oh Yeah
If you think I don’t know about the little tricks you’ve played
And never see you when you deliberately put things in my way
Well here’s a poke at you
You’re gonna choke on it too
You’re gonna lose that smile
Because all the while
I can see for miles and miles
I can see for miles and miles
I can see for miles and miles and miles and miles and miles–OH YEAH!
In regards to Rahm’s criticism, hindsight is always 20/20. Can you imaging if the new Truman administration acted the same way following Roosevelt’s death?
Obama has been laying the groundwork for leaving AF since the primaries and we are seeing it coming being acted upon (although Obama is trying hard to find a way out that makes him look like he did the courageous but right thing).
I find it interesting that he sets higher standards, in terms of corruption in high places and validity of elections, for Afghanistan than he does the United States.
Alas. Recall in years past the Saudi barracks bombing, the embassy bombings, the Cole bombing, the infamous baby milk factory. The lack of a serious “go, find them, kill them NOW” policy led directly to 9/11. here again, we will have a do-gooder (which = do nothing but I got the trophy) exit the office in a mere 3 years (hope hope) to be followed by some Republican that suffers the next devastating attack on his watch.
If you can’t beat your enemy, the simplest strategy is make them not your enemy. And who honestly didn’t know the Afghan government to be the lesser of two very bad evils. Name one middle eastern/arab government that doesn’t run like Chi-cagah Town Hall. Rom’s knows this game.
Ending Badly? With the poltical, extraordinarily partisan skunk Emanuel being BHO’s messenger? Yeah, I’d rather think so.
Might be wise to expedite those cookies.
Such sophistry and all the dutiful watchdogs of the people’s freedom (i.e., the media) obediantly swallow it.
The Af quality of gov’t doesn’t even enter into the equation. I submit there are two choices:
1) The Taliban in Af represent a security threat to the US in that they will harbor and support terrorists who actively seek to attack the US. In such case they must be actively engaged and destroyed.
2) The Taligan do not represent a security threat – in which case we can pack up and come home.
I happen to believe the former case, personally, but how well the Af gov’t ran the election is not part of the decision. If we are in Af, we do want a clean gov’t and should pressure them accordingly but it is not central to the decision of being in Af.
This feels so much like the end of Vietnam it hurts.
George V.
I, too, believe the Taliban are a threat to U.S. security but neither choice one nor choice two is relevant. Obama will abandon the effort because he simply does not have a commitment to U.S. security. He has been wanting a way to lose without being blamed for losing. The election fraud is the excuse he needs. We should pull all U.S. forces, aid groups, and diplomats out now. Not one more death in a cause that the President intends to abandon at the first opportunity.
Crap! I let http://www.hillarygump.org go a few months back…thinking we could photoshop up pics of the ex-1st Lady in combat scenes across history…Pearl Harbor, Hue, Iwo, Inchon, Thermopylae, you get the drift….and then I saw she was the weak horse and decided to save the money for a more useful domain name.
If anyone is up to the challenge…it’s out there and not spoken for…
[...] Neptunus Lex: “… high-mindedness with an escape clause.” [...]
They have wanted to bug out for a while and, delaying has allowed them to find a “crisis” through which they can accomplish something that they were having a difficult time justifying before. Delay, delay, and fiddle along until a justification for the bugout appears. That’s what I see. They gain cover for the criticism they will for sure get from one side and at the same time they make the radical lefties happier.
It’s going to be a long 4 years.
I vote for STEVEC. Most succinct short-form analysis of Obamas’ modus operandi yet. But it ain’t foolin’ STEVEC ’cause he has magic in his eyes.
Cross your fingers. (If that doesn’t go against your imam’s instructions)
It might be a little dithering over the summer could be the political version of ‘fixing’ the enemy:
Dither, Show weakness, encourage belief that military is leaving.
Allow the 1A-B terror candidates to flock to the hills.
Deploy the Pakistan Army to block the back exits.
Deploy the USMC to follow the candidates up-slope.
Add a few Chinooks full of SOF-types and a harsh winter.
Presto: Fully Kinetic Crisis of Leadership in the al-Q/ Taliban conference cave.
It might not be by design surely isn’t by design, but it might work anyway.
Potosi Joe:
Wecome to Byzantium, where the Emperor is in charge of everything his eyes can see, as long as he remains in sight.
Then initiative is exercised to achieve what the Emp says he wants, once asssured he isn’t looking this way.
Which creates conflict with what he really wants, when that isn’t what he says he wants.
Unless fiat accompli. Then what he said he wanted always was what he really wanted. Honest.
Another fine kettle of fish, Ollie, another fine kettle of fish….
While I understand the need for boots on the ground, and the whole hearts & minds thing, we should not be holding back in areas where we have clear tactical advantage, i.e. hitting the caves/deslolate outposts with the guided munitions.
While we need both types of battle, we should be maximizing the use of finding the places where they are training/ resupplying in the wilds of Waziristan and hitting those caves/camps with everything we got.
Using the survellilance drones to make sure we are not hitting the WRONG places and making sure that we are hitting the RIGHT places. NO bombing wedding accidentally, just hitting the bad guys as they are getting trained up in the SH-Twilds…
The area along the PAK/AFGHAN border is too rugged to control with troops on the ground and by now, we should be able to use our superior tactical advantage to smoke them out of the holes….Find em and send them to Allah…
I thought the whole issue with the Kamdesh firebase that was attacked and almost overrun would have made the perfect test for the right application of this type of battle. After we left this base and made it unusable, the Taliban announced to the world that they had taken over the base and were flying thier flag over the base.
Really?? Well someone at CENTCOM should have told them ” Stay right there..” as a C-130 flew overhead and dropped a Daisycutter on the spot as we knew exctly where they were and what they were doing. As the side of the mountain sheered off from the blast, we could have taped it and played the film at a news conference over & over again….Then we would conclude the news conference by quoting John McCain who stated, ” We will chase you to the gates of Hell..” as this will be the only way the Taliban Cockroaches stop what they are doing and run for their miserable lives…
I’m sorry to sound harsh but these extremists will only stop when we make them….It is about time we use our sueprior advantage to it’s optimum ability and make them stop.
I lost a buddy at WTC and another on the USS Cole, along with many shipmates in Fallujah….we have suffered enough loss of our best, it is time we take out their worst.
+1.
SK1 for SecOff!
Thanks…I appreciate the kind offerring of the position…..Rather be SECNAV or CNO…more fun and lots of time in the field with the troops.
I just read McCrystal’s speech as posted by LEX and in it he says that if you have 10 Taliban in an area and kill 2, it doesn’t leave 8 still there – He surmizes 6 say ” Time to get outta Dodge..” (in Pashto of course) and they go find other things to do…
So let’s get busy with finding the camps/caves/rat-holes and taking out the Trash!