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Shorter Marc Lynch

The GWU professor notes that no one in the Arab media much cares about the failed plot to kill a couple hundred Americans on Christmas Day, so why should we?

The Arab media’s indifference to the story speaks to a vitally important trend. Al-Qaeda’s attempted acts of terrorism simply no longer carry the kind of persuasive political force with mass Arab or Muslim publics which they may have commanded in the immediate aftermath of 9/11.   Even as the microscopically small radicalized and mobilized base continues to plot and even to thrive in its isolated pockets, it has largely lost its ability to break out into mainstream public appeal.  I doubt this would have been any different even had the plot been successful — more attention and coverage, to be sure, but not sympathy or translation into political support.  It is just too far gone to resonate with Arab or Muslim publics at this point.

The downgrading of al-Qaeda and the “War on Terror” by the Obama administration helps this trend along, even if the dynamics which produced it were largely local and internal to the Arab and Muslim worlds.   The failure of the failed plot to capture even a modicum of mainstream Arab public interest speaks volumes to the robustness of this trend… though the frankly disturbing enthusiasm for the story in some quarters in the U.S. suggests that not everybody is happy to see al-Qaeda recede.

I’m not sure I follow his logic, but then again I don’t have a PhD. If I did, I wouldn’t suspect that the Arab media are largely indifferent to the attempted murder of a couple hundred Americans on Christmas Day, especially when 1)  attempted mass murder by certain of their co-religionists  has the potential to portray the rest of them in an unflattering light, 2) the failure to consummate the attempt makes them – the extremists, that is – look clownish, and 3) what about the Jooos?

If I had a PhD, I wouldn’t suspect that downgrading the War on Terror had so much to do with “helping this trend along” as much as the revealed barbarity, suffocating tyranny and vicious incompetence of al Qaeda that the War on Terror exposed.

If I had a PhD, I wouldn’t suspect that the Arab media have become more or less desensitized to the attempted murder of a couple hundred foreigners by the wholesale intramural slaughter ongoing within the ummah. I would be able to persuade myself, in other words, that for them it’s all about us, and that if they’re not talking about it, it must not be that important.

If I had a PhD, I wouldn’t worry about who might specifically want to kill us more than what a foreign media generally thinks about attempts to kill us.

If I had a PhD, I wouldn’t find another piece of evidence that our security apparatus still doesn’t get the al Qaeda threat – which, inconveniently, has not quite vanished – so disturbing. Because of the Hope, and so on.

If I had a PhD, I wouldn’t think that having to enthusiastically focus our attention on the prevention of terrorist attacks here at home is a “happy” thought.

Upon sober reflection – it’s early in the morning, after all – I’m pretty glad I don’t have a PhD. After all, it took forever to finish my master’s thesis, and if this is the kind of thinking that it takes to get through a doctoral dissertation, then I’m not quite sure that I’m up to it.

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32 comments to Shorter Marc Lynch

  • No worries mate. With your public blog record you’d have trouble finding a sponsor for your Phd work anyhoo. ;^)

  • Mike Myers

    Gee, if I had a PhD (I don’t, I’ve got a JD) and I’d been on that flight, and the detonator had worked, I’d be dead and spread all over Detroit along with some 200 other passengers. At which point I wouldn’t give a flying flip what the newspapers in the Muslim world might, or might not say. And in point of fact, I’m not dead and spread all over Detroit, and it’s still hard to muster much enthusiasm over what the newspapers in the Muslim world might, or might not say.

    It seems to me that only a PhD, or Janet Napolitano, could say something that crashingly stupid.

  • Paul B

    On 9/11 when the terrorists were spectaculary successful in their murderous deeds, I remember Muslims dancing in the streets. So maybe they appreciate successful mass murder but are unimpressed by a guy who made such and botch of it.

    Also, this guy was also on a watch list, but allowed to fly. I can’t get into some restaurants without a coat and tie, what does it take to deny these people a seat. I don’t think there’s a God-given right to get on an airplane!

    • Bou

      I think you have a pretty good point there. I’m starting to think we need to leave the tracking of illegal immigrants to FEDEX and we should allow some high end Maitre’ds to determine who can and cannot have a seat on an airplane. I suspect it might work better than what we have now.

    • …what does it take to deny these people a seat.

      For starters, dropping the P.C. crap and calling it like it is. Profile them – if it looks like a duck, walks like a duck and quacks like a duck…

      Then again, that would mean someone would actually have to pay attention to the little things – like warnings from parents, terrorist watch lists and the like.

      • Bou

        You’re right. My sister in law is Middle Eastern (Catholic). She’s been in America for just over 30 years. It pisses her off to no end that she’s not profiled. After 9/11 she was traveling and she actually stopped some security people and frickin’ REAMED them out for not profiling people like her.

  • The Muslim world isn’t only not interested in failure, they are doubly uninterested in a failure that didn’t produce a martyr.

    • Uncle Mike

      Dave,

      Most likely the Muslim world isn’t interested in failure because it is their norm.

      However, some of us may be interested in the reasons for our host’s inability to obtain a PhD. Too much talent and drive is my best guess.

      Regards,

      Mike

      • Quartermaster

        He doesn’t sound unable, just unwilling. A dissertation is a master’s thesis on at least quadruple doses of steroids. I can’t say I blame him much.

  • G-man

    hit the front page of Al Jazeera English version and be overwhelmed with stories of those poor suffering oppressed downtrodden Gazans. So nope, they don’t care about the failed bombing. Altho, if the guy had been a palestinian fighting the Great Satan to free his homeland, or had there been a palestinian family on the plane fleeing the evils of the Israeli war crimes, then we’d see some coverage. Muslims killing muslims – that’s news. muslims killing/trying to kill infidels? That is business as usual. We are viewed as “getting what we deserve” – nothing more nothing less.

  • Liz

    I’m not sure how the “US security apparatus” failed in this case. The plane took off from Amsterdam. Here is a well-written first person account of what happened:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/roey-rosenblith/over-detroit-skies_b_404255.html

  • Liz

    Nevermind, just read the article you linked to: “That came after his father warned officials at the U.S. Embassy in Nigeria that the young man had become radicalized by Islamic extremists. The father also warned that his son might be in contact with terrorist groups.”

    Good God.

  • BobConnolly

    I have a Ph.D. The academy has more than it’s share of dimwits, experts in an area of their choosing and quite able to persuade themselves that they have more insight and intellectual prowess than the great unwashed. For me, the great revelation of 30 years in the business is that so many of us ar completely full of crap. Sheesh…..

  • virgil xenophon

    Don’t worry Lex, when contemplating such things just always remember Orwell’s admonition that there some things so ridiculous that “…only an intellectual could POSSIBLY believe in such things; no ordinary person could ever BE such a fool!”

  • George V.

    I’m sort of hijacking the topic, and I don’t have a Phd, but am I the only one bothered about the second incident, the next day, on the same flight from Amsterdam? Another Nigerian spends an inordinate amount of time in the head, during the hour before landing. Oh, but in this case he really was ill? After questioning, he was released by the Napolitano Legion of “Hey It Works!” (NLoHIW).

    Did anyone think to pump out the honey bucket on the airplane looking for explosives? Did anyone think this guy may be the second strike and lost his nerve? Wouldn’t surprise me if he did so, after hearing his colleague failed to become a glorious martyr and instead burns off his manly gear and then gets to spend a few decades in an American Supermax prison. No cushy tropical paradise with sunshine, soft breezes and ethnically sensitive meals fer you, Bub.

    So here’s our poor conflicted wannabe martyr, who decides he doesn’t want to A) die, or B) cook his hot dog and visit Supermax, but knows AQ in Yemen is gonna be after his sorry butt when he backs out. He decides to flush the evidence and is now so upset he’s hurled up this morning’s breakfast on top of that 80 grams of bang stuff. And when the NLoHiW checks him out, he’s obviously ill so he’s released after some questioning.

    Heck, what happened to quarantining people with H1N1 symptoms? Would have made a great excuse while he was checked out.

    George V.

  • Edward

    I’m with George V. Pumping out the honey bucket was the first thing that occurred to me when I heard he claimed he was sick.

    An even better tally of the intramurals of the ummah may be found at

    http://www.thereligionofpeace.com/

  • Edward

    And if these guys had succeeded, the Arab media might have had a future megadeath to crow about:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009/dec/27/detained-americans-pakistan-nuclear-power-map

  • virgil xenophon

    Edward, Kris & George V/

    I’m with you all the way. My thoughts too. Also: Why, in Gods name, ESPECIALLY after the incident the day before, would a NIGERIAN be ALLOWED to spend ONE SOLID HOUR locked in the bathroom? Talk about time enough to assembly a bomb! How about an entire days factory out-put worth? Where were the Spidey-senses of the Flight crew and attendants?

    (I’ve been told that because a Sky-Marshal wasn’t aboard that flight–an incredible factoid in and of itself, given the totality of the circumstances–the attendants weren’t allowed to force the door. Is this true? Nose,anyone?
    Incredible!)

    • If that last bit is true – then we are doomed to see another 9/11 or worse. When will the government “get it”…

      • Ron Snyder

        Kris, I think that the government gets it, they just have other priorities.

        CYA Syndrome, the inherent nature of a bureaucracy, and the lack of accountability are the primary reasons for our current situation.

  • Mongo

    Maybe these attempts will divert enough attention from another location where it’s needed as well, allowing for success through a rather older style of bushwhackery.

    I’m guessing that these guys aren’t failing at all, but are setting up for a diversion of resources; limited as they are. Very clever. Very clever, indeed.

    My last flight through Amsterdam was 5 years ago. Try as they might, their security precautions then were nothing compared to ours.

    Quote from a bubba:

    Perhaps she was referring to the ventilation system? Or perhaps the sound system? Or maybe she was talking about the time he spent in the bathroom? Which system was she referring to? Yikes! The system worked? She cannot be serious!!!

  • Mike Myers

    Liz, let me suggest how the US Security system failed. Schiphol in Amsterdam is one of the most modern airports in the world, with plenty of “swab sniffing” machines designed to detect explosives such as were used here. Many of the machines at Schiphol were paid for, or installed at the suggestion of TSA. There is a disparity in accounts as to whether young Mr. “I’ve lost my wedding tackle” started his flight in Lagos Nigeria. Murtala Muhammad Airport in Lagos has long been on TSA’s list of airports where security is essentially useless.

    The security folks at Amsterdam sent the passenger list to the United States where it was approved either by the State Department or by some minion in TSA. Now I happen to be a married white haired Methodist and USA citizen. My wife and I were subjected to “additional security screening” at Heathrow a couple of years back. We were told that we had been selected by TSA for such secondary screening including the swab job. We got selected “randomly” because that’s the politically correct thing for TSA to do. But “randomly selecting” travelers for additional screening is approximately as useless as tits on a bull. “Profiling” a young male Muslim, who paid for his ticket in cash, who apparently had no passport, whose name was on a watch list, and who had no luggage would be useful for some bureacrat in Washington D.C. to order –but not politically correct.

    So please don’t give me any of what my San Francisco liberal sister said “Gee Mike, he got on the plane in Amsterdam, so how could it be TSA’s fault?”

    • Mongo

      Since you’re one of the folks here who totes a JD, Mike, please allow me to veer you off on a tangent for a tad. Tolerance of ramblings, I do beseech of you.

      I saw the following quote by Karl Rove -’This guy was treated not as an enemy combatant, and turned over to the FBI and the CIA for interrogation, he was charged criminally, which means he immediately lawyered up.’

      Okay, bad guy is going to be treated as a criminal and not an enemy combatant. Firing squad is out. Got it.

      Now, my question is this: If, according to the Constitution, bad guy is to be tried by a jury of his peers, does that mean the jury has to consist of members of al-Qaeda? Or need they be Nigerians? Or both? If I’m not mistaken, we might not be able to try Mon-sewer Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab for lack of credible peers. No peers…no jury…no trial.

      That said, must we then let him go? Seeing as how we must be expeditious, it appears unseemly to me that the government keep him, feed him, clothe him, and allow him access to prisoner population, for the next 3 years. Three years because by then we’ll have treated him horribly, botched the judicial process, and forever made impossible a fair trial, and Chairman WunWhoWon will pardon him, with apology, prior to January 20, 2013, for crimes committed against him by the U.S.

      What say you?

      • I dunno what the guy with the JD would say, but I say: Take him to Antarctica, where there are no laws.

        (That’s one of the two places in which I’d be willing to meet my ex-brother, the other being Paraguay, where I hear it’s still legal to arrange a meeting involving yourself, your friend, and your surgeon, and the person yer hoppin’ mad at, and his f and s.)

        P.s. No, I’ll not delope.

  • 11B40

    Greetings:

    A while back, there was a Jack-in-the-Box hamburger commercial where Jack was talking to a food taster at some kind of convention. The taster thought his opinion was worth $25,000, something with which Jack did not agree, pointing out the taster’s lack of customers. The taster replied that he “only needed one.”

    I’ve seen “Al Qaeda” translated as “the base”. Poetic as these Muslim monsters like to wax, I see their self-image as being as a central resource in terms of men, money, training, logistics, ideology, helping develop conflicts and confrontations along Islam’s “bloody borders”. By stirring these pots, Al Qaeda positions itself as an ideological center for those Muslims enthralled by the idea of a worldwide caliphate. That is their market. They do not need great numbers of recruits or followers. Bring them in, train them up, send them back from whence they came or off to this week’s hotspot. Spread the madness that is Islam.

    Their brand has been established. Coke-a-Cola doesn’t need the NY Times and Al Qaeda doesn’t need the Arab media. The mosques and the Internet will do nicely.

  • Taxi1

    Protecting our airlines is a close to impossible task. We have mules running drugs into our country all the time by swallowing condoms full of cocaine. All a terrorist who is willing to blow himself up has to do is to swallow about 6 oz of the stuff to get it aboard and he can blow the sides off a plane. And don’t get me started on the employees at third world airports.

    If they are determined enough, we will get struck. We have to learn from each one, and try to stay ahead of them. But again, our inability to keep drugs from crossing our borders a hundred different ways suggests being perfectly safe is out of reach.

    Best to keep hunting them down where they live, and we’re pressing hard there. Two strikes in Yemen. Saleh Nabhan toast. Strikes in Pakistan.

    The attack on the Northwest Airlines flight confirmed what we already know, that there remain serious threat streams focused on US citizens both outside and within our borders. Hell, sometimes they’re in our own Armed Forces. We won’t be truly safe until the threat streams go away. A free country is just too easy a target.

  • virgil xenophon

    Taxi1, I totally agree, but the TSA is of little help. There is an excellent art. today by Barbara Hollingsworth in the Wash. Examiner.com about all the whistle-blowers who have been punished by the TSA for pointing out all the glaring gaps in our security system–like the fact that so much ac. maint. is done outside CONUS with NO security controls whatsoever on the personnel who work on the ac, for example. A good art. Go see @

    http://washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/columns/Whistleblowers-punished-for-warning-of-aviation-security-lapses-8693691-80219982.html

  • Taxi1

    Read it…this is too true: “The dirty and dangerous secret about airline security is that it’s all just political theater designed to calm passengers’ very real fears. If the system allows a young, radicalized Islamist known to U.S. authorities to board a plane with 80 grams of pentaerythritol tetranitrate sewn into his pants, nobody is safe.”

    Concur with haplessness of TSA.

    I avoid air travel like the plague when able. I’ll drive 8 hours rather than fly the distance. I’ve had a potential bomb on board, had one of two engines on a 737 fail in flight, and had a plane taxi back from the hold short because they caught a weight & balance issue at the last second.

    Of course right now I’m forward and flying around on a whole series of 3rd World Airways in and out of 3rd World airports. What a trip. At least they serve us meals, even on the short hops.

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