It was sometimes easy for veteran Cold Warriors to miss the old days, when at least we had a clear vision of who the enemy was, and that the enemy – although objectively on the wrong side of history – at least wore a uniform and was rational. Strategic deterrence was founded on a “MAD” principle, but we had the satisfaction of knowing that the adversary made cost-benefit analyses whose math you could follow, and potentially even influence.
Farewell to all that in the GWOT, and worse yet, the Bear hasn’t tired of making himself a nuisance:
As France finalizes deal to sell Russia helicopter carrier warships, President Dmitri Medvedev declares NATO “Russia’s greatest threat” and welcomes leaders of the Palestinian terrorist group HAMAS to the Kremlin.
Hamas is an Iranian client, which bodes ill for Russian assistance to bottling up the Iranian nuclear threat. Russia is well on the way to a shocking demographic decline, while Iran’s explosive population growth has only lately started to ease.
It’d be nice for if Russia, embarked on a path into that good night, went quietly. Nice, but improbable. Instead they seem content to play spoiler, and leave a mess behind for the Organization of Non-Insane States.
Russian Bear was only playing dead while ex-KGB idiots became pols like PUTIN & his puppet MEDVED…what a farce.
Russia will reap the ill benefit as they too will eventually have a 9/11 when the rats they feed by hand eventually turn on them….matter of time as they are too big a target to be ignored by the likes of Mr. Taliban and his thuggish cousins in Al Qada….
At this point, Russia has little to worry about from the Al Qaeda bunch. They are still feeding the beast, right along with Iran. The real danger to Russia is predicted in Ezekial 38 and 39, where a “hook is placed in her jaw and she is brought south.” Eventually, Russia will end up doing something very foolish because she has fed the rats. But the rats are going to drag her down with them.
Well here I was thinking that the greatest threat to Russia was its piss-poor management of what’s left of its WMD stocks (we are much much surer that THEY have some) and ramping up internal rebellion…surely NATO will be rapt to be on the ‘Almost But Not Quite Great Satan’ list with the other kids…
Read an interesting book called Comrade J about a KGB general who started his career assigned to Canada before the end of the Cold War, and carried it on through the fall of the Berlin Wall and for a few years later very high up at the KGB station in Manhattan before defecting.
One of his main points in the book was that when the Berlin Wall fall the KGB got a new name (or set of names for a while), but functionally NOTHING CHANGED. America was still, and is still, perceived as Russia’s number one enemy.
He eventually defected seeing that the west was not at all bad, and that the new Russia was not a capitalist democracy at all but rather a country run by a oligarchic cabal of drunken, corrupt mafia criminals that were completely mis-managing things. Putin, for the average Russian, was probably a move up from those days.
But regardless, whatever we see them as Russia still sees us as their biggest enemey.
People sometimes forget that today’s Russia is not the former USSR. Huge difference. They also forget the reason for NATO is no longer extant. Indeed, NATO lacks relevance in this century. And isn’t it about time for European countries to shoulder more of their defense posture, instead of relying on the US? Are nearly 60,000 US troops in Germany necessary today? What is the threat that Germany cannot defend today and we must?
Russia has long been paranoid, and with some good reason. Playing devil’s advocate, how would the US respond to being surrounded by an alliance of a NATO-like number of Cuba-like countries, but with far superior weapons aimed in our direction, and with large numbers of highly trained troops training to fight us? When the USSR existed, NATO was essential. But with a failing Russia, NATO today is an irrelevant anachronism.
Oh, and Russia has indeed suffered from radical Islamic terrorism, probably more than us. LINK
NATO threatens Russia? NATO? Seriously? How can NATO be both an irrelevant anachronism and yet an alliance with far superior weapons and with large numbers of highly trained troops? Seriously? Flit, you are one of the most successful trolls I’ve ever met, to write this stuff on Lex’s blog with a straight face over and over again. You must be laughing your ass off as you respond by spreading the BS wider and deeper to the responses. I wish I could pull of that level of shenanigan. I toast you. But I’ll still respond, anyway, since I work for NATO now and it’s a slow morning, as usual.
And while we’re busy shouldering Europe’s defense (against whom? who alone in the region has the ability to threaten Europe militarily? would it be… Russia?), tell me how many USN bases are left in Europe? USAFE? USA? 60,000 troops, half of whom are posted in some sandbox somewhere, is chump change. How many ships in Sixth Fleet? And of those, how many are in European waters (counting the Med)? We’ve pretty much stopped defending Europe, the problem is that they’ve no will left to defend themselves.
Now, I’ll grant that Russia has fought a long battle with Islamic terrorism, although it’s hard to separate the terrorism from the insurgency. What Russia has done different than us, however, is that they’ve called an Islamic spade an Islamic spade and relentlessly shelled and killed every effin’ one they could find. As a result, Russia has been largely free of the Sunni/Sufi terrorists for almost five years. No GITMO for them. And for that, the US State Dept has pissed on them regularly for “human rights” violations. I don’t blame Russia for being ticked off with us about that. The more you know about Beslan, the more you know that the USA is a babe in the woods when it comes to fighting terrorism.
No, I’m with Steyn on Russia. Utterly irrelevant except for those nukes, and as Russia morphs demographically into the world’s largest Muslim state over the next thirty years, those nukes are going to keep things interesting.
Flit simply refuses to think through what he says.
I’m not with Steyn as Russia has a a lot of potential to make trouble for us in the Middle East. The lines of communication are far shorter for them than for us. The remnants of the KGB is also a lot better at their tradecraft than the CIA is. Frankly, if the KGB had let something like 9/11 slip through, there would not have been a mass of pink slips (as it should have been for the CIA) but a bunch of executions.
NATO is certainly no threat to Russia. Russia does, however, strive to remain hegemonic in it’s sphere of influence. That makes sense from a foreign policy standpoint, even if it annoys us.
Despite what Flit wants to think, Russia was the core of the Soviet Union. Stalin wanted it that way as they were largest nation of the Russian Empire and the logical rulers, even though Stalin and many of his circle were Georgian. Russia dwarfed Ukraine and the Islamic states she ruled.
My shorthand slights Steyn, and your thoughts are in line with his. It’s not Russia itself that poses the threat (not that’s it our friend, either), it’s what lines it grabs for as it plummets that present the danger. Lines to Iran, for example.
Sir,
I agree. We’re long past time to withdraw all of our occupation troops from Germany. They’ve served their purpose and now need to move home. Russia should be left free to enjoy the devils of its own making….and Germany and Holland, and Belgium and France. How’s that Religion of Peace working for you now fellows?
I’d agree with you that Russia has indeed suffered from radical Islamic terrorism. And it disgusts me that they help Iran (or that we help Saudi Arabia). If it were up to me, we’d tell Israel we’re moving our embassy to the Eastern portion of Undivided Jerusalem, we’re fine with them building settlements anywhere they like west of the Jordan, we’d bring them into the F-22 program, and tell the Iranians in advance that we’re sending Israel all our telemetry. We’d then pull embassies from any Islamic country that refused to sign a peace treaty with Israel but tell them if they were willing to allow Jews and Christians to proselytize in their own countries, we’d avoid nationalizing their US investments like Aramco did to US companies. Good thing I’m not president!
And advise dar al Islam that there’s a silo or three pointed at Mecca.
I like being one of the 60K in Germany – so much good beer
I’d say most of the US troops (from all 4 branches + CG) are here not to defend Germany or Europe, but for staging/support or working on issues to the south and east.
Nothing new. Russians been doing this for decades. At close of WWII they openly supported the rebellion in Greece – and almost won, recognized the “legitimate” Polish government when they hadn’t cleared but 5% of the country because the Polish “needed” to recognize the hand that was protecting them, and you can find many more examples – Warsaw, Rumania, Yugosalvia, Austria, and the little episode in the pacific for which Japan is still seething.
Nothing more than “the enemy of my enemy is my friend”. At least you KNOW you can never trust them. With all apologies to Mr. Reagan.
Don’t think Reagan needs the apologies. Remember he qualified the trust with verification.
Japan is still seething, but that simply is a lesson not to start wars with major powers when you are a minor power.
Speaking of the Land of the Rising Sun… shame they haven’t got over the national shame yet. At this point, it’s irritating overkill: by the standards of Asian (Mongols, etc), and indeed European (anything to do with non-Catholics and France, Napoleon’s wars, etc), wars of conquest, the Japanese were vile, but, unlike the Germans, not evil.
A re-militarized Japan would be useful, right about now, as a balance to China, and as a regional (more or less) power capable of making life miserable for SE Asian pirates (Strait of Malacca esp’) and dictators.
OT: CDR Lippold thinks about running against Harry Reid!
Wikipedia has Lippold “instrumental in the creation of detainee policy in the immediate aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.” Bet that’ll stick in somebody’s craw!
Lippold should run. He got a raw deal in my oppinion from SECNAV and the Senate. The irony doesn’t escape me that he could be a member of the body (Warner) that held up his advancement for political reasons even though selected by the board on several occasions.
Interesting news considering Russia’s published history with it’s own Chechens. And I thought Muslims were so protective of their brothers.
…
Upon further reflection, perhaps Hamas can overlook Russian crimes against Muslims in favor of Russian crimes against Jews.
C’mon! They’re the French. What did you expect?
“NINOs” — Nato in name only.
Now you know why the Brits call them “the hereditary enemy”.
[...] Neptunus Lex continues to chronicle the decline of Europe as a major power, if it every was in the first place – certainly some of its member nations may have been – once – but EU Europe definitely seems to be less than the sum of its parts…Britain, Eire, Netherlands, Greece, Russia… [...]