Back when Afghanistan was seen as “the good war,” George W. Bush was much excoriated in the press and by his political adversaries because he failed to draft a timeline for withdrawal from Iraq. Instead, the former president preferred to double down on the Surge and then await the positive alignment of facts on the ground. His theory was that a date certain only bolstered the worst forces in Iraq, who knew exactly how long they would have to withstand coalition pressure, while demoralizing those who might be counted upon to team with us for a just peace.
After Iraq’s bloodlust had largely abated, his successor learned half the lesson and surged forces to Afghanistan. But he attached a date certain for the withdrawal of those forces, and now the military is living – and dying – with the consequences, according to Jackson Diehl from the Washington Post:
In Kandahar, the U.S. command may be suffering from a failure of nerve. It has stepped back from an initial push to challenge the entrenched and corrupt local power structure headed by Karzai’s half brother, Ahmed Wali Karzai. It has decided not to deploy U.S. troops in the city itself, other than military police working with Afghans. It has not moved to disarm, or even to cut off the Western funding of local militias — some of them controlled by the Karzai family. The result is that U.S. forces are seen by many Afghans as merely reinforcing what amounts to a local mafia that is not necessarily preferable to the Taliban.
Hanging over all these complexities, and driving some of them, is Obama’s imposition of a timeline on the Afghan surge: first a review of its progress this December, followed by the beginning of troop withdrawals in July 2011. The perception that the clock is ticking on the U.S. mission pushes Karzai toward building and defending his own family network, and favoring aides who can talk to Pakistan — and maybe the Taliban — over those close to the United States. It forces McChrystal to focus on producing easier and positive-looking results in the next few months, rather than committing to harder and longer-term solutions. It fuels continuing acrimony among military commanders, who believe the timetable is folly, and State Department and White House civilians, who regard it as the key to Obama’s policy.
(As) the summer comes on, and Washington occupies itself with other issues, the trend lines in Afghanistan do not look good.
Not all of this is the president’s fault of course. He inherited this war, and after all, Afghanistan was always going to be a tough nut to crack. But some of it is.
By learning half the lesson, President Obama may have chosen the worst possible course – doubling down on the human cost to our troops while failing to demonstrate sufficient resolve to see their mission through.
Ordinary Afghans have acutely attuned survival instincts, including a long history of hedging their bets. As 2011 comes nearer and US forces start edging towards the exit, we shouldn’t be surprised to see all our efforts thus far squandered.
None of this should surprise us. After all, we’ve been down this track before.
You correctly write that,
“… President Obama may have chosen the worst possible course – doubling down on the human cost to our troops while failing to demonstrate sufficient resolve to see their mission through.”
When I read it, it served to remind and confirm that the PTBs will spare no generation’s finest to bring about their complete control. Our attention is drawn away from our Nation’s peril and we squander wealth and blood in the name of a new world order.
It’s exciting to see that it remains completely consistent with the Biblical record.
We should have never escalated the Afghan conflict. We should have gone in there and blown up the training camps and left. The very idea of nation building in an inherantly tribal culture is pure folly. I grieve for every
American that loses his/her life in this conflict.
I don’t know if you’ve read this report yet, but it didn’t give me much to think positivee thoughts on.
With apologies for the language- VERY few of the politicians give a damn about continuing to send our troops into the meat grinder. BHO surely doesn’t.
Since mid-to-late last year my opinion is that we should pull out of AF and use whatever force, other than troops, we need to keep AF from becoming a base for Terrorists again. I am all for letting the AF’s clearly know that we mean what we say, and follow thru on our promise: destroy by village, tribe, province if the AF’s let Terrorists take over. I truly do not care about the AF’s or their collection of tribes.
No more troops to the AF. I have come to feel that I am living thru the whole friggin SEA experience again.
Lex, this post is mis-catagorized. It should be posted under buffoonery.
I realize Vietnam is a tempting analogy, but it doesn’t at all well. With some air support from us, the NVA went home with its tail between its legs in spring of ’72. ARVN was almost able to defend the country independently then. If we had responded the same in ’75, the NVA would have learned the same lesson all over again.
Congress, however, threw the victory away. McGovern, Kennedy, Mansfield. Those names will live in well earned infamy because of the loss of life they caused.
We are no where near the AF Army being what ARVN was in 1972. Not even close. If we leave in 2, 5 or 10 years, I doubt it will be any different. Telling the enemy what you are going to do, however, is nothing less than being dumber than a rock.
but it doesn’t *work* at all well.
I need to replace my dyslexic keyboard. I think VX and I got ours from the same place.
Not so funny you mentioned the war we failed to learn as much from as we could have.
My “car book,” which has been digested in quantity lately due to a series of Dr visits: “Betrayal” by Major William Corson, USMC. He ran the Combined Action Platoon (CAP) Program, and in the center of this book, he is discussing how the GVN officials (Ky where I am reading now) had their own agenda and we turned a blind eye to the abuse of the tax payer money, the abuse of the populace, and the massive corruption, which drove the people to the VC. It was the better alternative than being ripped off by their own government, who had our backing in money and arms…and the money for them that never made it to them, or, supplies sent to rebuild villages that got sold to them byt GVN officials.
He makes a pretty strong case for how we just kept playing into the hands of those in power in SVN and that the general population came to despise us. Major Corson drags in may personal observations and history to support his case. Needless to say, I’m experiencing mental seismic activity as a result.
Based on what this post discusses, it sounds like we’re about to be doomed to repeat our same mistakes…so, those who wold like another good look at fighting insurgency with a major military, I’d strongly recommend this book.
Listen – I am on the ground here in AFGHN and have a unique perspective – The conflict here is not as you read in the press – Believing what they write is like trying to see the whole room through the key hole
NYT report yesterday announced that the mineral wealth of this country is beyond compare – Lithium, Copper and othe rvital minerals are here and need to be developed – Who do you want partnering with the Afghanis – Russia? China? Allow the Taliban to control tose assets -
No, my friends, this is the NEW Germany, Korea, Japan and we are here for a very very very very long time…My company is building 40 bases and they won’t be done until 2013 sometime…..we are here fo much longer than the LIAR-IN-CHIEF has stated….much longer.
The loss of any life, especially young soldiers is tragic but imagine a world where the Taliban is financed by huge mineral wealth and they can buy the technology to deleiver thier form of “dimplomacy” a.k.a. Terrorism, right to our front doors….that changes your outlook on this conflict eh???
It does on mine – I’m here because the economy SUX back home…but glad to see we are doing what is needed. rather pay now, than regret later.
I think the situation is more like the old Belgian Congo. It wasn’t much above a mess when it was Leopold’s personal possession, and it didn’t fall far when the Belgians left. The underlying barbarism came to the fore after the very thin veneer fell away. Mineral wealth is no guarantor of civilization. AF will become a target for real imperialists, like Russia and China.
China has already signed a copper mining agreement.
There will be more, alas.
So we pull out, and Russian and Chinese money control the resources of Afgahanistan. Lots and lots of money, so the nasties can buy anything they want, and then use it on the West. But the Timeline was kept to, so the Left can hug themselves, for stopping the war. I hope SK1 is the one with the correct information, and the adults are actually in charge, and we are gonna stay awhile.
Scott – I’m betting the mortgage on it (as right now this job is the only way it is getting paid), The Marines and all our other fine military are betting their lives on it and for all our sakes, let’s hope the adults ARE in charge or we are surely up SHITE CREEK.
No way can this place ever fall into the hands of those who would exploit its natural resources to export their brand of terror to the rest of the world, and have the funds to do so easily…..no F’ing way we can allow that to happen.
I hope you are right SK1. I really, really hope I’m wrong. I’ve never wanted to be wrong on something more in my life. Given PBO’s actions though, it’s not the way to bet.
Knucklehead Two comes home in September from Smells-like-poop-istan, as he calls it. Mr. President, either get in, or get out. You can dither all you want on the oil mess in the Gulf — you don’t seem to have any other leadership style. But when the fruit of my loins is on the line, you don’t get to dither. Poop, or get off the pot.