The North Korean succession struggle may not play out precisely as Kim Chong Il hoped it would:
South Korean and Japanese news media have reported that North Korea’s propaganda agencies have printed millions of pictures of Kim Jong Eun to be distributed to the homes of ordinary citizens, who already keep photos of the older Kims.
That the family is attempting another generational succession has become accepted wisdom among North Korea observers, but some have recently started to express doubts about the regime’s ability to pull it off. They point to a recent personnel exodus in a propaganda office that was believed to be working on Kim Jong Eun’s behalf and chatter among North Korean traders in China that the son, at age 26 or 27, is perceived by many people as too young to hold power.
“Kim Jong Il believes that the only way for him to maintain his power is to establish the hereditary succession of his son,” Kang Chol-hwan, a defector who wrote a book about growing up in a North Korean prison camp, wrote in South Korea’s Chosun Ilbo newspaper this week. “But it is doubtful the entire party agrees.”
I’d like to wrap this up with some pithy piece of predictive analysis, but I’ve got nothing.
Scary thing? I don’t think anyone else does, either.
Under the heading “One Can Hope”, perhaps those left behind to figure out how to clean up the mess will consist of a group capable of convincing the remaining mad-dogs that sanity must be restored. “Take care of our people, rejoin the world”, and all that.
So what will it be if the hereditary succession plan doesn’t work? A temporary military hold until they figure it out? The likelihood of civil war doesn’t seem a possibility what with the centralization of power in place and submission of the the masses for all these years.
Ah, what do I know; I only know what I hope. That he rots in hell and the country awakens to find a world of hope, and change. Hey! Pretty catchy! Maybe they can run with it.
Prediction for the next decade:
1. The DPRK will remain full of very very thin and creepy people.
2. It’s primary source of income will remain largess from South Korea and China
3. It’s secondary best source of income will remain counterfeiting US currency, and surreptitious weapons sales to people who hate the US.
Sort of a wait and see rolled into a game of chicken.
Good to see you around, Glenn. Got all your boilers fired off these days?
Wonder if the axiom about the third generation being the ruin of family-owned businesses might hold true for the Kim dynasty?
The old saying was “Shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves,” SJS. Lex, from what I understand, the Chinese are backing at least two of the various factions who are vying for the leadership. KJI’s brother in law, Jang Song Taek (sp?) is supposed to serve as a kind of regent for Kim Jong Un until he’s ready to rule.
FWIW, the guys at startegypage covered the potential outcomes in one of their chapters in the most recent version of “A Quick and Dirty Guide To War.” The good news is that there are alot of possible outcomes. The bad news is that they each suck worse than the next.
Speaking of whack jobs:
Looks like the local modelers association got together and did a big kit bash from their boxes of left over parts for Dinner Jacket to display and paralyze us…
Yeah…”Ambassador of Death” and Khadaffi had a “Line of Death” (where the crew of a LaCombatante found out what that really meant in 86), too.
Looks like a mod. of an old WWII Nazi V-1 Buzzbomb to me. Oh yeah, that’s really advancing the technology, alright…but then Muslims always did like all things Nazi…
I was just over at the flea’s place (Ghost of a Flea) and his take was the same as mine, saying: “…embodying both the technological and moral values of Germany in the 1940s.”
Kinds looks like they found an old Ryan or other manufacturer’s target drone in some junkyard and pulled out a case of gold spray paint.
The old Ryan Firebee?–God, haven’t thought of one of those in years….we used to use ‘em for recce in N. Vietnam…”Buffalo Hunter” was the code-name of the program, iirc.
You’ll like this then, Virgil. BQM-34 series history by Teledyne Ryan. While I was at Aircraft Targets Pt. Mugu, the guys on the Missile Targets side were flying both sub- and super- sonic BQM-34′s and the BQM-74′s. They had an op tempo that was nothing to sneeze at, and for such a small group of guys really put out a lot of work.
And now we find out what happens when a penny-ante dictator dies and there’s a spirited dispute goes on among various factions about who gets to be in charge next – with nukes.
Here’s a concept – China steps in, settles the matter, and takes the toys away to make sure no one gets hurt.