It would be tempting, as Glen(n) Reynolds has suggested – tongue firmly planted in cheek, no doubt – to handle the issue of Teh Crazies from North Korea by taking off and nuking Pyongyang from orbit.
It’d be the only way to be sure.
It’s also tempting, as Iowahawk’s David Burge has tweeted, to note that “When you ‘unclench your fist’ with Iran & reach out to ‘Taliban moderates,’ don’t act all surprised when North Korea starts firing missiles,” or that “What? War about to break out in Korea? This looks like a job for Articulate Part Time Adjunct Law School Professorman!”
Tempting, and even amusing in a whistling-past-the-graveyard kind of way. But not particularly helpful. North Korea has been a problem for a long, long time.
With any normal country, a country even minimally responsive to the needs of its citizens for example, or one that uses a rational risk/benefit calculus informed at least superficially by a sense of morality, it might be possible to check such rude ambitions by threats of military reciprocity. But North Korea, famously, is not a normal country. It is a gulag masquerading as a worker’s paradise, one in which the warden and his staff would rather burn the whole prison down, and the neighborhood alongside it, rather than see their own privileges reduced. Fundamentally, the Nork leadership believes the path of confrontation offers more advantage than does the path of accommodation. Their only real goal is regime survival, and they have calculated – accurately, I believe – that their apparent willingness to throw themselves off the cliff so far exceeds the rational world’s willingness to accompany them that any provocation short of full invasion renders them invulnerable to counter-stroke. That they can go around sinking corvettes and shelling fishing villages with impunity, in the full knowledge that should the South Koreans or their US allies reply proportionately, the threat of turning Seoul into a “sea of fire” using artillery fires – or even nuclear strikes – renders us militarily impotent.
Faced with no good options, it’s also tempting for policy analysts to try yet another round of appeasement:
North Korea is the longest running U.S. policy failure. We’ve tried just about everything: war, containment, threats, isolation, an agreed framework, Six Party Talks, and bilateral discussions. The State Department has accumulated over 60 years of frustrations. The Pentagon is largely out of the equation given the devastating consequences of a military attack and subsequent war on the Korean peninsula. Now, the Obama administration comes into the White House under the general banner of “change.” But with its default policy of malign neglect, it has only offered more of the same…
North Korea will only change internally when its external relations change dramatically, and that will require a new U.S. approach. We’ve tried brinksmanship and containment for over 60 years and the only change has been North Korea going nuclear. By following the example of détente with Vietnam and China, we can minimize the risk that North Korea poses to the international community and also encourage positive changes within the country. Only a fundamentally altered relationship with North Korea — economic engagement, a peace treaty to finally end the Korean War, diplomatic normalization — will change the dynamic by removing the threat that sustains the Kim Jong-Il regime and keeps the North Korean garrison mentality intact.
Vietnam only wanted to be left alone, and China only wanted to grow their economy – both desires needed the cooperation of the wider world, the first through indifference, the second through export trade. North Korea wants none of those things: They want to ruthlessly control their population and grotesquely mismanage their economy, and use the good offices of the international community to abet them. Vietnam and China are poor analogues. In fact, the closest historical parallel for North Korea may well be the dying hours of a reality-denying Soviet Union.
But just as Jimmy Carter’s policy of détente with the Soviets merely delayed the regime’s inevitable collapse, so too would more food and developmental aid for North Korea merely extend a thuggish regime’s brutality.
It would be difficult – it is difficult – to tolerate the escalating series of provocations that the North Korean regime would inflict upon its southern neighbors. But to respond militarily risks holocaust, while responding diplomatically invites another cycle of alternating shakedowns and provocations, prolonging the agony. What cannot be cured must be endured.
Unless China deigns to intervene with their problematic protegé, the West should offer the North Koreans nothing and respond to their provocations with the kind of moral indifference apportioned to earthquakes and hurricanes. We should await their inevitable collapse with patience, and then leave China to pick up the pieces.
North Korea is a nuisance, albeit an occasionally deadly one. China will be important in the 21st century, if they can rise in a responsible way – a question very much in doubt today. A continued policy of malign neglect towards North Korea leading to the collapse of the regime might well be be a good house warming party for the PRC’s welcome to the world of serious nations.
Not too soon.
At the risk of sounding like Inspector Cloiseau standing next to a vicious snarling canine and explaining that his dog does not bite (the snarling pooch being, after all, not his dog), and thus veering clearly away from the real issue of the post, I kind of take issue with the conventional wisdom that Vietnam only wanted to be left alone and China only wants economic development.
Vietnam was a true, hardcore civil war. The North was an agressive, expansionist communist state that contributed to the fall of the Laos and Cambodia dominoes after the war, and gave significant material assistance to the Sandanistas and other communist insurgencies around the world. The south was a nationalist strong-man regime that although not a western liberal capitalist democracy wanted to associate itself with the Free World to protect themselves agains the ideologues who had come to power in the North. To think that the whole nation just unanimously was fighting for its independence to be left alone is a half truth at best, and as they say about people who tell half-truths vs. people who tell lies those who tell lies know where the truth is, those who tell half truths have forgotten where they put it. The whole Vietnam wants to be left alone charade serves the Left’s purpose of painting America as an Imperialist Agressor.
China? They have been rather explicit to anyone who pays attention in stating to keep their desires quiet and pretend like they only want economic development. I’m personally rather concerned that economic growth is not an ends for them, but rather a means to a far different end. These are the people who saw themselves as the “Middle Kingdom” once, and historical perspectives in much of the rest of the world are far, far, far longer than those of us in the modernized west are used to, a modernity where it has been said that “all that is solid melts into air” in the corrosive acid of an extremely short attention span and radical, relatively for human history, attachment to ideas and visions over bloodlines and faith.
That being said, the overall analysis seems sound. The only thing that could go wrong with the plan, North Korea doing something stupid . . . and, really, what are the chances of THAT happening!?
Hit, MOT; I concur, Prowler.
+1 on China, Lex. They are disturbingly reminiscent of Pre-World War I Germany. They’re a growing power…with an inferiority complex. It’s an explosive mix.
Can’t agree with you on the analogy with Wilhelmine Germany. I see nothing of an inferiority complex In the Germans then. Nothing of it as they nursed a grudge from 1919 either.
To further expound on the chances of North Korea doing something stupid, the most important element of strategy, and thus what makes it so difficult, is what the other guy does.
I give Reagan full credit for forcing the USSR into bankruptcy and breaking it. I must give Gorbachev a significant amount of credit for being willing to dismantle his empire peacefully. Teleport a modern day Putin into Gorbachev’s shoes in 1989 and how different do you think the modern day world would look?
The ball’s really in North Korea’s court. We need to be ready when Kim-Il-Ding-Dong, or whoever the f’s in charge over there now, shows up to the game with a football bat and starts doing hits of heroine before the toss up. (i.e. when they continue to act weird, dumb, and potentially dangerous . . .)
“We need to be ready when Kim-Il-Ding-Dong, or whoever the f’s in charge over there now”
Dude. That is the best freaking nickname of all time. I plan on borrowing it liberally in conversation.
How long would it take to evacuate Seoul? How long could that population be supported – in part by us, if need be – until they could be moved back to a ruined city and be helped in rebuilding it.
Evacuate and support Seoul? 10 Million people?
Now there’s a logistical challenge.
Seoul would be bombed to oblivion, then possibly flooded. Seoul is lost in war.
It was insane to build up Seoul after the armistice. If I lived there, I think I’d move south.
Obviously the South Koreans have the most at stake here, given that any hostilities land in their playground, but Japan has a lesser interest at risk in that hostilities coming south, unless stalled, won’t stop at the sea.
The ROK’s have probably had enough provocation at this point to last a couple generations, and are ready to start giving it back. Japan, however much they’re despised by the ROK’s, will do whatever is necessary to safeguard against further Taepodong II missile activity.
It would be to China’s great discredit, IMO, allowing the NORK’s to engage in hostilities that will, necessarily, bring two potent regional adversaries to bear against them in return, and this time there probably wouldn’t be any stopping at some damned river as before.
I don’t profess to know the answer to the situation. Like many of you I have ideas, harsh ones, but what I do know is that further appeasement is the low road and should not be taken. It’s sad that we’re in the unfortunate position of having such a witless SOB in the Oval Office, as it leaves Pyongyang to operate unchecked. Were a shooting war to start, what would Obama order our forces in country to do? Tuck tail and run? Apologize for being there in the first place?
Perhaps resuming Team Spirit would set things aright.
Good point Cap’n; NoKo is the last Stalinist communist government on Earth, and need to be treated as such.
Hey, how’s that fight-for-a-draw in wars thing working out for you all??
Heck, just let Jimmah and Madam “I only want to serve my country” Clinton work it all out like they did before. That’d be about as stupid as not finishing the job in the first instance. And thinking of that: George H.W. Bush is good at half way measures and he’s available and he even likes the Clintons…send him along.
Lesson: Don’t let crazy countries have nukes. Repeat that to the idiots in government until it sinks in.
Meanwhile, international press are openly calling this a likely US/ROK false flag operation designed to provoke war with the peaceloving North Koreans.
There is actually a fairly simple solution for this: cut off aid, cut off diplomatic relations, cut off all contact with the ROK. All food, economic aid, you name it, goes through Japan and South Korea via our bases there, and all diplomatic communications likewise goes through our allies or our trading partners like the Chinese.
The ROK leadership is out-numbered hundreds to one by what little agriculture population they have. Stifle economic aid, farmers quit selling crops and hoard for their own survival (1) and that places pressure on leadership for outside aid or to take over the farms with their trusted minions. Starving masses in the cities will occupy their thoughts while those in the hinterlands will merely hunker down and ride it out.
If they take over the farms, they still starve because mid-level politicians may know how to kiss a pig but they darned sure don’t know anything about raising them, and as Zimbabwe has learned if you want sink agricultural production all you need to do is hand your farms over to friends instead of farmers.
Likewise, with the people who hold the aid being their enemies, they’re forced to negotiate for basic foodstuffs from people they’d rather intimidate into surrender. Hard to intimidate your dealer into giving you the good stuff if you’re the junkie and can’t pay for your fix.
The house of cards will collapse, but of course it will be hardest on the ROK civilians.
They’ll be killed by their own government for their food, but more will survive than die I wager. We’ve seen this before in history. There may even be a last gasp of a missile launch, probably at the bases that hold the food and economic aid, a desperate ploy to once again be considered relevant and worth negotiating with. You retaliate by destroying infrastructure, docks and power plants and such, the last creature comforts for the leadership and the very things they need to distribute what they want, which won’t be missed by the majority of their population.
And the South Korean government, stable and representative, will be there to pick up the pieces. They and China and Japan can decide what happens to the remains of the ROK.
– Max
(1) In the USA during the Great Depression there wasn’t actually much starvation, but farmers in the Midwest never lost their ability to provide food for their families. That was because farmers typically were fairly self-sufficient and had their gardens and wild game to stock the larder, while the cash crop was for money to buy what they couldn’t provide themselves. They may have lacked new clothes or coal, but they were able to sew patches on old clothes and burn corn cobs to keep warm. When a family lost the title to the farm the crops they’d planted remained theirs even if the bank now owned the land — what was the bank going to do, post workers to guard the tomatoes and potatoes and beans? Folks in the cities, on the other hand, were at the tail end of the supply line and had little by way of natural resources to fall back upon for basic needs. They had to rely on the soup kitchens, the church shelters, and the public works projects. ROK leaders will find demanding subsistence from subsistence farmers will probably result in a lot of claims of crop failure — I’ve nothing to give to you, but maybe I’ve something to trade left over…
Um, Max, the ROKs ARE the South Koreans. I think you just forgot to add the PD off of Peoples Democratic Republic of Korea.
DPRK – Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea (North)
ROK – Republic of Korea (South)
I think he means NORKs. It sure ain’t democratic unless you believe it’s a democracy when the Kims get the only votes.
Our host wrote:
‘It would be difficult – it is difficult – to tolerate the escalating series of provocations that the North Korean regime would inflict upon its southern neighbors. But to respond militarily risks holocaust, while responding diplomatically invites another cycle of alternating shakedowns and provocations, prolonging the agony. What cannot be cured must be endured.’
That analysis is sound, but not soothing. What is the difference between doing nothing out of lack of will to examine the situation, and examining the situation only to decide to do nothing? Is not ‘enduring’ rather similar to appeasement? This is very frustrating.
I read somewhere ‘Beware the anger of a patient man.’ I hope we’re being patient, and not actually lacking the will to stand up and crush the bully, which only America can do.
Best regards, Peter Warner.
“The Mouse That Roared”, another Peter Sellers film comes to mind. All the Norks have to do is declare war on us and loose. We then do as we always do and pay for reconstruction and rehabiltation back into the world fold.
Unfortunately this “mouse” has nastier weapons which does seem to complicate things somewhat..
Nothing nastier than the quadium bomb!
The war plans are there, the capability could be there (after diverting every C-17 and MSC ship towards the NORKS for the next 90 days), so all we lack is the political will for a short war concluding with mushroom clouds. I don’t think the NORKS would nuke Seoul – artillery yes, but they also know they would lose every mud hut and concrete structure. And the ROKs really don’t want to absorb 10 million starved, unhealthy, poorly educated, maniacal new citizens either. they can’t afford Kias and Hyundais and Samsungs.
Build a big ass coalition, play hard ball with the Chinese to get on board, and effect a food and energy blockade. Oh, and a rather simple and effective tool to assist in hastening their demise is cheap balloons carrying pocket radios. The NORKS fear information as much as anything. But we’ve been “waiting” for 60 years. How much more malign neglect can we stand?
I think this was a probe. Moreover, the NKs built their plan because they thought they might see retaliation, maybe planned or it, and on the off chance we decided to, gve us an ‘out.’
Simply put, if they hit a small island with artillery there should have been a face saving strike on those artillery pieces that fired on the island. They are probably unmanned or empty caves, but that is what should have happened. That would have been the obvious and proportionate response, which to me is why a more valuable asset, like a submarine or some other means, was not used.
That the assets used were somewhat expendable and there was an obvious reaction aspart of this, means to me they really did think we’d do something.
I fear that hour has passed. This isnt over yet. Some more South Koreans will die in the next few months as a result.
Thinking of those who fear information and lines as drawn… Why would the Chinese oppose the Nork regime? They just had that little sneaky summit with Nork 1 recently, seems unlikely they are surprised by current events. Indeed, Chinese stature increases every time the west comes begging for cooperation. China, S Korea and Japan don’t agree on how to handle the Norks presently, posture I’m thinking, for the day when its a land grab.
How’s the will for an armed confrontation with China? Seems unlikely they’d remain passive while coalition forces romp about Norkland not to mention possible loss of fishing rights.
China will play for gains.
Interesting posits, conjectures and insights on this post, thanks to everybody. I wonder several things in response:
1) Does China downplay North Korea’s behavior in an effort to keep the ROK and PRK from uniting and therefore creating another Asian economic competitor?
2) If China is becoming a 21st century super power as appears to be the case, is India far behind? Indeed, how much would a good relationship with India counter-balance a bad one with China? Do we have a good relationship with India? I mean, REALLY good? I wonder about this because with the transfer of many US company customer relations departments to India, all they may hear about are our complaints, which most likely sound irrelevant and entitled.
3) So rollback isn’t a possibility, containment is costly and apathetic to the situation, is heavy detente not the only option? I’m not talking about tit-for-tat party talks, but opening the door. I’m curious as to how well they could keep their population cowed if opportunity and information started flowing in. Their military would become focused on self-containment that they loose their operational flexibility. Not sure how it would happen, but just curious.
4) I’m not a fan of killing those I don’t like, but in this time of transition for PRK, what if we helped them clean house a bit? Surely our intelligence agencies have some inkling as to who is in charge and so on?
Just my questions over morning Joe. Leave the possible answers to you who are more knowledgeable than I.
Let us hope the new kid has a lick of sense. Not a policy, I know, but nothing will happen at this end for at least two and more likely 6 years.
Full military blockade to precipitate regime overthrow, or a nuclear decapitation strike.
Anything else is just delaying the inevitable.
In terms of retalitory strikes what is often overlooked is that the aggressor (in this case the NORKS) has in all probability already assessed the level of probable retaliation, found it acceptable, and thus discounted it. As such, most levels of initial retaliation are usually woefully indaquate to act as a “lesson-teaching” punishment and/or warning about further/future escalation. Viewed this way, imo the conclusion to be drawn is that if retaliation IS to be done it should be double or quadruple in size from “the usual” “proportional” pinpricks that planners and politicians usually counsel in order to send the right “message.”
Random thoughts this early a.m. as the traffic into NORIS sails by here on Third Street in the Emerald City and I wait for the coffee to take effect:
– If STUXNET wasn’t first tried out on PDRNK before it went to Iran (just sayin’) then maybe it’s time for it to find its way into the systems at their facilities. I hear Iran is more than a bit vexed that most of their systems, which require considerable automated coordination are pretty much AFU.
– What do you think the sales price would be to simply send a gray emissary to Pyongyang and ask “how much, and into what bank account, for you all to go away? You get to live out your days like Idi Amin, in the lap of the luxury that now rest on the bodies of your people. Feel free to bring your toadies along.”
– Maybe we do need to go the “full Nixon” and fully recognize them, open the trade and travel gates and let the people of North Korea sample and experience what the rest of the planet experienced. How do you think the Eastern Bloc and subsequently the Soviet Union fell? Not by isolation, but by exposure, many argue. Try and nose around the internet for the term “revolution by rising expectations.”
Will be in San Dogs thru Sunday, if any of you local denizens want to try for a meet-up, let’s see if it works. Family is flooding into town and even I don’t know if a get together is even possible, but hey, we can give it an impromptu shot.
A very warm and sincere Happy Thanksgiving to the rest of the Ready Room.
Com
Stuxnet is reeking havoc with their variable frequency drives, but only infects variable freq drives manufactured by Fararo Peya in Teheran or Vacon in Finland.
Good eye-deer about giving them money to walk away. After the first Gulf War Saddam made the comment that for $10 billion he would have brought all of his troops home and left Kuwait better than he found it. We would have saved 90 billion plus.
Well, G-man, that gets back to the old calculation that it cost us approx. 1 mil/per to kill ea. VC/NVA–at which point we all said hell, mail ‘em all a check for same, make ‘em REAL capitalists, and we can ALL vacation in a “real” Hanoi Hilton.
The only problem with paying dane-geld is that the dane always seems to come back for more. At some point in time the bargain gets washed away.
Not to mention, what the neighbors start realizing they can pull off when you advertise to the world you’re not only a mark, but a rich one at that.
“… old calculation that it cost us approx. 1 mil/per to kill ea. VC/NVA…”
Darn! Had I received a 10% commision for my production, instead of $60/month combat pay, maybe I could today vacation in Hanoi like a king, or anywhere else in the world.
Flit
You’re forgetting the maintenance men that got your F-4 up day in and day out. Behind them were the supply guys who got them the parts needed. Behind them were the guys who got paid DoD contracts to make the parts. I’m sure you also had a training command and some guys there actually taught you how to fly the dang thing. Then there were some intel guys who helped determine where you were going to fly to. All these people lived, ate and went to the bathroom somewhere that other people got paid to take care of. By the time you actually include everyone who had a contribution insofar as that $1M/KIA is concerned you’re not left with as much as you think. Other people, you know. Typical pilot . . .
I know and agree, Prowler. And I remember.
I guess you just missed my abject sarcasm on the whole matter.
No, no, just joking along with you.
Wrong guy.
The whole problem to the bribing is what Prowler pointed out. They’d be back for more and everyone else would start doing it too. Kinda why we don’t bend to terrorist demands. Gives someone else a reason to do the same.
Just Sayin’