Admiral “Rat” Willard is taking seriously China’s anti-access/area denial capability – evidenced by their work in an anti-carrier ballistic missile:
“An analogy using a Western term would be ‘initial operational capability (IOC),’ whereby … I think China would perceive that it has an operational capability now, but they continue to develop it,” Adm. Willard told the Asahi Shimbun. “I would gauge it as about the equivalent of a U.S. system that has achieved IOC.”
The four-star admiral, who has been an outspoken skeptic of China’s claims that its large-scale military buildup is peaceful, said the U.S. deployment assessment is based on China’s press reports and continued testing.
The new weapon, the “D” version of China’s DF-21 medium-range missile, involves firing the mobile missile into space, returning it into the atmosphere and then maneuvering it to its target
Military officials consider using ballistic missiles against ships at sea to be a difficult task that requires a variety of air, sea and space sensors, navigation systems and precision guidance technology – capabilities not typical of other Chinese missiles.
A tough nut to crack, but an important element – in combination with a large force of diesel submarines – in the Chinese strategy of pushing US influence out of a strategically important region.
In turn, Washington is responding to this threat by arguing exactly how quickly the defense budget should be slashed:
Richard Fisher, a China military-affairs specialist, said the new ASBM is only one part of a series of new Chinese weapons that threaten the region.
“When we add the ASBM to the [People's Liberation Army's] growing anti-satellite capabilities, growing numbers of submarines, and quite soon, its fifth-generation fighter, we are seeing the erection of a new Chinese wall in the western Pacific, for which the Obama administration has offered almost nothing in defensive response,” Mr. Fisher said.
“Clearly, China’s communist leadership is not impressed by the administration’s ending of F-22 production, its retirement of the Navy’s nuclear cruise missile, START Treaty reductions in U.S. missile warheads, and its refusal to consider U.S. space warfare capabilities. Such weakness is the surest way to invite military adventurism from China,” he added.
The only thing more expensive than deterrence is blundering into a fair fight.
There is a third alternative of course: Decline. It had to happen sooner or later: Nothing lasts forever. I’m just a little surprised that it appears to be our national policy.
CHI-COMs talk a good game but are we so naive that we believe their PR???
Like any other Poker player, you have to give the impression that you have the best hand while not scaring away people who will risk their funds in the game…..
CHI-COM land has issues – the people want cars, TVs, MTV, etc. and that is NOT in line with the party line….Like the USSR before, the party will soon find that “people vote with their feet” and that slowly but surely, the party will be out.
I hope like the USSR, our estimates of what the CHI-COMs are capable of is overestimated and that when the rubber hits the road, they will be unable to make the new weapons they brag about actionable
I still see us as the leader in tech that is *proven * as no one else has put men on the Moon, or done the things like the HUBBLE, etc.
What would be the point of China knocking us out?? We are their largest customer…..even they aren’t crazy to cut out their best money supply….IMHO
If I were Chinese, I wouldn’t want to “knock the US out”. I’d just want to dominate them – to make the economic rules, rights of passage rules, special relationship rules, mineral rights rules, etc. to my liking rather than theirs.
What better way to do that than build a maritime Great Wall a little farther out than the last one?
What ‘reasonable person’ of the world would look at a map and agree that the US should rule the high seas all the way to Taiwan, and the Chinese only from there to the mainland?
If I were Chinese, we Chinese would only be claiming what is proportionate. How can you not agree with that?
If you were talking about a nation that believed in human rights, democracy, the community of nations and fair trade, I’d agree with you. Since they don’t, it’s a good thing to not trust them to build a wall across the Pacific and say, “Do not pass this line”.
Ah, but Byron, we Chinese do believe in human rights! Just not your human rights – you know, the right to health care, the right to social security, the right to a college education for all… Shall I go on?
Moderation??? Is this due to the Blizzard or did I run afoul of some LEX rule I was not aware ???
all set now…..my bad….
Thank you Bill Clinton and Bernard Schwarz. At least 10 years too late for the tar and feathers I suppose.
From the perspective of the Left, American decline is a Good Thing.
Pity they can’t take a year’s sabbatical in a gulag run by one of the tyrannies the Left so adores. They would learn – the hard way – why American strength matters.
That being said, I consider the DF-21D to be a nascent threat, not a current one. It’s current when the PLAN can demonstrate the kill chain from detection to destruction.
“Fair fights” are for suckers.
““Fair fights” are for suckers.”
Yup, Just ask the Redcoats back in 1776
Bill Cosby:
“General Cornwallis of the British, this is General Washington of the Continental Army.”
“General Washington of the Continental Army, this is General Cornwallis of the British.”
“If you’d shake hands, gentlemen.”
“O.K., British call the toss.”
“British called heads, it is tails.”
“General Washington, what are you gonna do?”
“General Washington says his troops will dress however they wish, in any color, in buckskins and coonskin caps, and hide behind the rocks and trees and shoot out at random.”
“British, you will all wear bright red, all shoot at the same time, and march forward in a straight line.”
The “rationalism” of commercialism and rising standards of living does not always trump ideology. Rather, history would indicate the reverse is true. LBJ thought he could bribe Ho Chi Minh with the economic benefits of a TVA-like plan for the Mekong Delta, but Uncle Ho had other, ideologically-driven objectives/priorities. Don’t bet on the siren’s song charms of the potential rewards of Capitalism as being No. 1 on the Hit Parade of the PRC.
mojo, I’ve always liked fair fights. However, my definition of a fair fight is one I win. If I lose it was clearly not fair.
The left, however, wants us to lose.
Odd, that’s my definition, as well.
Watch it Badger. I’m comin’ fer ya.
To repay that Christmas hug
The Left does not want us to fight. Period. That way they win (they think).
The administration believes Chicom PR because our Maoist President and his Maoist staff/advisors WANT to believe them. Their lusting after Socialist Ideals leads them to continually denigrate and disarm our country.
We are in deep shit if we don’t wake from this nightmare soon…..if it isn’t already too late.
No worries as we are in the best of hands….POTUS has been busy with pandering to the VICK-THE-DOG-KILLER constitutency as that is a bigger concern to him than National defense….
The idjit in charge is on Hawaii eating shave ice while our country becomes a lesser power due to his negligence…too late to ask for his impeachment for failure to fulfill his oath to defend the US Constitution against all enemies foreign & domestic….oh, wait…that means he would need to defend the country against HIMSELF….what the hell was I thinking????
I think it is too late. Even if the GOP successfully resists the Wonwhowun, we can’t recover as fast as the Red Chinks rise. We have an almost insurmountable mountain to climb to dig our way of the hole the left, of both parties, has put us in.
I shudder to think that perhaps two decades hence my grandsons could be strapping on the 21st Century equivalent of the Brewster Buffalo in order to battle the Heathen Chinee’s version of the A6M5. We owe them, and our country, better than that.
you’re surprised the Obama administration chooses to push the USA into a strategic and economic decline?
It’s been their stated policy since well before the 2008 elections to do just that, anyone who didn’t see it in say late 2007 was either delusional or blind.
Yes, remember that famous YouTube vid where he personally stared straight at the camera and went down the wpn sys. he was going to eliminate? Or the interview where he said he wanted to bankrupt the coal-fired utility business? It was all right there “hiding in plain sight.”
“None are so blind as those who will not see…”
Dudes,
Get a grip. China? How cares? Gold at $1400. Monetization of 3 trillion of debt. Case Schiller in the dumps. 1 in 3 Amercuns have ZERO in retirement savings. Unemployment stuck at 10%. Population growth at 1% – now go look at Social Security for the boomers based on that number. The DoD budget getting a 78 billion cut over 5. Who can focus on China?
They will eat our lunch and when we hear “burp” we will collectively go “WTF, nowhowcouldthatahappened? We have no global strategic VISION, thank you BHO.
I seem to recall an article mentioning a $100B cut for the Navy next year.
G-man, OTOH the Chinese have a demographic aging problem that makes ours pale by comparison.
Race you to the bottom!
Not a fan of the current admin, but we’ve been fighting that “no global strategic vision” thing since the Berlin Wall fell – lots of blame to go around there…and I’ve got my own collection of scars from a former Service chief to prove it.
w/r, SJS
Did not we test just one example of a MARV, to show that we could do it, and then quit? Did not the know-how on that get siphoned over to the PRK during the Clinton administration?
See, I can discuss other things than model airplanes!
Of course, a maneuvering re-entry vehicle is really nothing but a model airplane with a very high wing loading and a very small lift/drag ratio.
Of course, a maneuvering re-entry vehicle is really nothing but a model airplane with a very high wing loading and a very small lift/drag ratio.
Lot more complicated than that when you look at materials and electronics that can withstand re-entry, 50+g-forces maneuvering in three axes and still work to guide an RV to the target. An excellent read on the science, engineering and technology involved (and germane to the Pershing II refernce) is found in Willaim Yengst’s monograph: “Lightning Bolts – First Maneuvering Reentry Vehicles”.
To coin a phrase, afterall, it really *is* rocket science…
w/r, SJS
Engineers, not just aeromodellers, I suspect might like their creations to fly without annoying pilots in them.
For the record, we deployed 108 Pershing II’s in the early 80′s to Germany whose chief feature was a MaRV that used radar-scene matching to bring the warhead to an (nuclear) gnat’s @ss in the terminal stage.
Drove the Soviets absolutely apesh*t because the TKP (terminal kill probability – a mathematical derivation that is based on a relationship between yield and CEP) made this a hard-kill weapon – for taking out hardened silos and deeply buried bunkers. All with a flight time of 10 minutes or less to Moscow, from mobile launchers that could be flushed from their garrisons and dispersed througout the countryside to avoid loss in a first strike scenario.
In light of the above, I would offer that “others” have learned and acted accordingly.
w/r, SJS
Huh. Kinda surprised no one’s talking here about the J-20 being revealed over the past two days. Granted, Ares Blog has it covered pretty well, but it would seem right up this crowd’s alley.
Look surprisingly large to me on first glance. What’s the operational scenario the Chinese are thinking of . . . (Strikes on Guam? Persistent BARCAP over Taiwan? Anti-shipping/CVN strikes at longer distance as a back-up, or perhaps targetting platform to DF-21?) How does it fit into the rest of China’s force structure as a clue to what their long term strategy is?
Forgive me for coming late to the thread, but I was on a day to trip to J@G Sales procurring yet another fine Chinese Norinco SKS.
However, while we bemoan Chicom acquisition of this new threat, we would do well to remember that seasons of bountiful harvest are always preceded by seeds being planted. Can you say Bill Clinton? Or Chinagate? I always wondered what Ron Brown knew when that plane went down…….
http://www.iran.org/tib/krt/redstar.htm
A teaser from the piece: “Unbeknownst to most people at the time was a plan devised by top Clinton administration appointees to lift export controls on a wide range of strategic technologies. The plan was first laid out in a 1992 National Academy of Sciences study authored by William Perry, Ashton Carter, and Mitchel Wallerstein, who all went on to top Pentagon jobs under Clinton.”
Galations 6:7
Anyone catch that AVIC just bought Continental (the producer of piston engines) just a few weeks back? I don’t think its really the long term GA biz that attracts interest – but UAV apps. Adequate recip engine tech doesn’t strike me as something all that difficult. It doesn’t make sense unless they can’t do it good enough or fast enough – or we’re so blind as to let them buy away all our relevant IP and bleed our own industrial base. It’d be like selling them plans for an airliner or rockets for – wait, I’m getting queasy… heck its not even industrial espionage if we just sell it!
On top of J-20 and all the recent tech festivities, I’m wondering if a comprehensive list from the last 12 months (plus highlights from the decade), say WSJ op-ed from some esteemed greyhead, might start enough murmuring for someone legislative to notice that China is in a BIG hurry to get on with their plan. No sense speeding things along.
Haven’t seen the plan, have we? That we would not have the luxury of time or safety to grow our industry in time of war doesn’t seem to have footing inside the beltway. Speaking of which, how is planning to have Turkey et al responsible for critical sections of the F-35 production any different from relying on the French for your aircraft carriers?
I didn’t know that Teledyne had Continental on the block. I wonder how long before Continental disappears over the Pacific horizon and through the Chinese maw.