Ross Douthat on riding the tiger:
(History) makes fools of us all. We make deals with dictators, and reap the whirlwind of terrorism. We promote democracy, and watch Islamists gain power from Iraq to Palestine. We leap into humanitarian interventions, and get bloodied in Somalia. We stay out, and watch genocide engulf Rwanda. We intervene in Afghanistan and then depart, and watch the Taliban take over. We intervene in Afghanistan and stay, and end up trapped there, with no end in sight.
Sooner or later, the theories always fail. The world is too complicated for them, and too tragic. History has its upward arcs, but most crises require weighing unknowns against unknowns, and choosing between competing evils.
The only comfort, as we watch Egyptians struggle for their country’s future, is that some choices aren’t America’s to make.
No, but the consequences may be ours to live with, for better or worse.
Mubarak is gone, either now or next September. His son will not inherit the pharaoh’s scepter. What trembles in the balance now is unknowable, but experience gives the lie to optimism.
Yeats was here first, although all things tend towards entropy.
Just read an article by Benjamin Kerstein (h/t MJT) where the lines “Pessimism is always the smartest attitude to take in the Middle East…”, and “No one knows what is going to happen over the next few days.” stuck with me. http://bit.ly/gbX1vu
Whatever the end result, we will have to live with it.
Unlike Mr. Douthat, I do not think positing alternative histories is useful or in any manner meaningful. Easy to be the cynic & critic when one doesn’t bear the mantle of responsibility, a bit harder to provide solutions that work. Life makes fools of us all, regardless of our efforts.
As Woody Allen said, “If you want to make God laugh, tell him about your plans.”
Ron, there’s a Koranic verse very similar to the Woody Allen line, 8:30 “Verily they plan, but Allah also plans and Allah is the best of planners.” Or as I like to always bring up quite inconveniently during the joint planning cycle, the enemy also gets a vote.
What I find missing from Douthat’s piece is Sadat, who released the Brotherhood from prison in hopes of receiving their favor, only to be assassinated by them. Mubarak did the best he could to keep the lid on, but some crap obviously got out. Considering the first WTC attack was led by a Baluchi, and his father-in-law was AQ Ops for the second attack, we could just as easily spin a tale of Persian ethnic repression of Baluchis and blame 9/11 on Jimmy Carter.
Positing alternate histories can be useful, though, if the purpose of the exercise is to learn. I think the most important lesson to be learned is that any grand theory of political relations fails in extremis. The guide of untainted national interest–what is in the best interest of my nation, from what I have to work with right here and now–seems to produce, if not perfect results, the best over time. Think of another “alternative history,” the movie The Final Countdown. He could second guess the consequences of his action all day long, but in the end the CO knew he swore an oath to protect his nation against all enemies, and here was an enemy fleet that needed to be taken care of. Very Occam-ish.
In which case, what matters to us is the Suez Canal, which is why we will continue to pay whatever thug sits atop Egypt, even a Brotherhood thug, to keep it open and safe.
BusBob, the Egyptians have a very good track record of containing the southern border of the Gaza Strip because they, like the Israelis, know that nothing good comes out of that hole. I can’t think of a terror attack in Egypt in recent years that didn’t have its origin in the Gaza Strip.
Zane, good points.
I painted with a broad brush re Alternative Histories. Agree that they are useful, even critical in certain settings, though IMO not in the one used by Mr. Kerstein.
The clarity provided by hindsight is amazing.
Apologies, meant Mr. Douthat, not Mr. Kerstein.
Coffee, need coffee.
Sharon, I agree. I had first read the Kerstein article on Michael Tottens blog http://pajamasmedia.com/michaeltotten (MJT is now part of PajamasMedia, and is this week a “visiting media fellow” at Hoover Institution). Very nice to see MJT getting recognition for his work.
I would like to think the Egyptian track record of containing the Gaza Strip would continue, but the ultimate goal of the Brotherhood is reestablishing the Muslim empire across the globe. Not much about coexistence. I would enjoy being flat wrong. It wouldn’t be the first time…
I fear a Muslim Brotherhood(really Iranian) takeover in Egypt, followed by a multi-prong attack on Israel like 1967 or 1973 with the resulting use of nuclear weapons on Cairo, Damascus and Beriut. Will all the attendant fallout, nuclear and otherwise, as a result.
Whew. I think it’s the only time I’ve ever read an opinion piece in the NYT that I can stomach, follow the reasoning, and come out the other side in agreement. And if the rumors of weapons already moving to the Hamas controlled Gaza strip are true, the rough beast is already slouching toward Bethlehem. The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt will not be a brother to any non-Muslim entity on this planet. Israel must be on tenterhooks.
Thanks for pointing out the article, Lex. Wouldn’t have darkened the door of the Times opinion page otherwise.
Douthat is a classic example of someone “educated beyond their intelligence.” I.e., Douthat is a goddamn fool.
Right along with Brooks. Krauthammer seems to be headed down the same path.
That Kerstein bloke is onto something.
I am wondering if there will be a Muslim Brotherhood take over with them actually believing what they say and making the mistake of an all out attack on Israel. Israel, in their own defense, uses nukes and absolutely changes the equation. Israel/Iranian/Pakistan nuclear exchange w/in a decade? I hope not. That is where my pessimism is taking me.
Peachy. Just Peachy. The Muslim Brotherhood is Hamas. Hamas is the Muslim Brotherhood.
Folks, the Brotherhood is very smart, very cunning and very patient. It never attacks our strengths, it attacks our weaknesses, and works best at slow subversion. Should the MB emerge as the ruler of Egypt, it would not dare to attack Israel because Israel could still crush it the Egyptian army in a heartbeat.
Think longer term, a decade at least, and wrap your mind around how Egypt could steadily undermine Israel’s ability to defend itself over that time. I would suggest that replacing other Arab governments with MB allies would be a nearer term target, and both Alewite Asad and America-lover Abdullah of Jordan are obvious targets.
A lot of potential rioters around the ummah are waiting to see how things turn out in Egypt. When Mubarak yields (his future is very limited now), the rest of the ummah is going to roar into the street. That much I confidently predict. Beyond that, my magic 8-ball has no ken.