The perceptive reader will note that your host was, if not cautiously optimistic about the people power victory over tyranny in Cairo, at least determined not to pre-judge the outcome their cynically. Who knows? Something better than Mubarak and his National Democratic Party might yet emerge.
Miracles happen.
But watching events unfold in tiny Bahrain, home to the US Fifth Fleet, I am reminded that a foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds:
Bahraini protesters said security services opened fire on demonstrators Friday evening as they marched toward the capital’s Pearl roundabout, dramatically escalating the standoff between the country’s Sunni Muslim rulers and its Shiite majority population.
Doctors at a hospital in the capital where wounded were being sent said x-rays showed security forces had used live bullets. Protesters said security forces shot into crowds.
The country’s crown prince, in an emotional TV appearance, appealed for calm and asked protesters to leave the square to begin “dialogue.”
The divide between the Sunni elite that runs Bahrain and that 80% of the population that confesses to the Shi’a faith has long riven Bahraini society. In modern times, political violence included a 1981 coup attempt which saw an Iranian-backed, Shi’a-led attempt to overthrow the monarchy and establish an Khomeinist-style theocracy. More violence occurred in the mid-1990s, as leftists, liberals and Islamists joined forces to extract democratic concessions from the ruling al-Khalifa clan.
But the 2006 elections to the Chamber of Deputies saw huge gains by Islamist parties of both Sunni and Shi’a bent. These worthies – when they weren’t off taking the night airs in Thailand – swiftly set about attempting to reform Bahrain’s relatively cosmopolitan culture in ways more congenial to their ancient texts.
The skull-cracking earlier this week by security forces against a peaceful protester encampment was a serious mistake. But there’s also a serious risk that a too-rapidly democratized Bahrain might fall into the same kind of sectarian conflict that plagued post-invasion Iraq, where – to channel Yeats – the best lack all conviction, and the worst are filled with passionate intensity. In this kind of struggle, the Saudi’s would take one side and Iran the other.
It’s hard to see how the US could stay clear of that fight, and harder still to see what we could hope to gain from it.
One might consider whether the protester encampment was all that “peaceful”. Some of the reports were that a sweep by Bahrain police/mil units uncovered quite a number of weapons in the tents of the “peaceful” protesters.
Not an excuse, but certainly muddies the waters. And is another reason for SecState to keep her trap shut until there is something substantial to say.
Wonder if any of those protester weapons, if they did indeed exist, can be traced back through Iran or Hizbollah?
Good Lord. The place is tiny enough, we could remove all the inhabitants across the way to Bandar Abbas, repopulate it with Democrats from California and Connecticut, and make it a frickin’ U.S. territory. Tell me, anyone, how that’s a bad idea! It can’t be any worse than California has become.
Oh wait, we’d have to import a smidgeon of GOP working class to support the Dems and their social programs. Hmm, okay, there may be a problem with that idea.
Perhaps we could turn the place into another Subic Bay/Cubi Point…no, that wouldn’t work either. Dems hate anybody but themselves having a good time.
Well, I’m sure we’ll figure out something. Maybe export the Sunni’s to Iraq and the Shi’a to Kuwait. Something has to work.
PS Cool looking Wiki map of Persian, 600 AD Lends something to that notion of Iran being a tiny nation.
The Persians got pushed back quite a ways with the Islamic conquest. The various Turks coming across didn’t help in any way either.
They do remember their glory days, however. One reason for their recent stirrings.
and in Egypt, reality bites one who thought he was central to the movement
http://www.hindustantimes.com/Egypt-protest-hero-Wael-Ghonim-barred-from-stage/Article1-663996.aspx
Sort of really bookends my links, below, Edward. All coming into focus sooner, rather than later, I’d say..
Two common stories about the Saudi-built causeway that links the two nations: 1. Allah cannot see across it; 2. It was built strong enough to support the weight of Saudi armor.
Given that the Eastern, oil-bearing provonces of Saudi Arabia also have a Shiite majority population, the Saudi monarchy does not want to see and possibly will not allow an overthrow of the Sunni monarchy in Bahrain. The US-educated Bahraini Crown Prince has been trying to slowly liberalize government processes and increase Shiite participation. But as Bahrain has no oil, it is very dependent on Saudi largesse and the Monarchy probably doesnt make a move without Saudi approval.
The real issue here is the avoidance of a change in puppet-master from Saudi to Iran. One only has to witness the prevalence of Hezbollah flags in Bahrain’s Shiite villages to understand that Iranian influence
(or at least sympathy) is significant.
I guess we will find out ‘Sunni’ than later!
That is so bad Lex oughta ban you for life.
I just hope there’s an afloat option for 5th Fleet HQ.
Not really….too much investment in Manama base over the last 20 years….been there. It is a nice place to stay if you have to be based over there. I hope they are able to bring this to a peaceful closure as it is not based on economic conditions, but sectarian issues.
While Lex is waiting for miracles to happen, perhaps he should ponder this 18 Feb art in PJ Media by Jamie Glazov titled: “The Muslim Brotherhood’s Political Pilgrims” @
http://pajamasmedia.com/blog/the-muslim-brotherhood's-political-pilgrims/
And guess who’s preaching today to a packed public square in Cairo? Go see the Tatler at PJMedia:”It begins: Quaradawi (MB) to lead Friday Prayers in Cairo” @
http://pajamasmedia.com/tatler/2011/02/17/it-begins-quaradawi-to-lead-friday-prayers-in-cairo/