Ordinarily, traffic moving east across the causeway linking Bahrain to Saudi Arabia is coming for liquor and Russians.
A Saudi-led military force crossed into Bahrain on Monday to prop up the monarchy against widening demonstrations, launching the first cross-border military operation to quell unrest since the Arab world’s rebellions began in December.
Opposition groups immediately denounced the intervention as an occupation that pushed the tiny island kingdom dangerously close to a state of “undeclared war.”
Bahrain’s majority Shiite Muslims see an opportunity to rid themselves of two centuries of rule by a Sunni monarchy. But Gulf Sunni leaders worry that any cracks in Bahrain’s ruling system could threaten their own foundations. Protests are already flaring in Oman, Kuwait and even tightly ruled Saudi Arabia.
Gulf leaders are also concerned that political gains by Bahrain’s Shiites might give Shiite Iran a stepping stone to its arch-rival Saudi Arabia, connected to Bahrain by a wide causeway.
Instead, the Saudis and other members of the Gulf Cooperation Council sent forces the other way, deploying about 1,000 troops by land and air and cementing the entire six-nation alliance to the fate of Bahrain’s rulers, who are key U.S. allies as hosts of the American Navy’s 5th Fleet.
If push comes to shove and “foreign” troops fire on Shiite protesters – one Saudi solider has already reported to have been shot dead by a protester – Iran is almost certain to get involved.
Which is when things get really interesting.
Iran’s interest is spurred by two items:
1. The protesters are largely Shiite (the majority in Bahrain) and the ruling class is Sunni…this is an age old issue…Iran holds no deep political ties to Bahrain’s Shiite groups, but some Iranian hard-liners in the past have hailed their efforts for greater rights.
2. Iran would LOVE to see the US Navy displaced from their base in Bahrain. It would be a feather in their cap.
I spent a significant amount of time in Bahrain while on duty with the US Navy and Bahrain is one of the more tolerant societies in the Middle East. The uprising there is not driven by poverty or economic oppression….mainly ages old religous intolerance.
Or Iranian muckraking…
I predict that President Obama will have a two step policy:
Step A: Call for restraint on both sides.
Step B: Vote “Present” by doing nothing.
He could also employ his customary “side-step”, of the entire issue, now most notably employed during yet another “golf while the world stirs” foreign policy.
I vote for life to stop being so “interesting”.
Those darned inscrutable Orientals knew what they were speaking of when they said “May you live in interesting times.”
Time for the “Interesting Times Gang” (aka “The Heavy Crew”)?
Other than the Iranians, I think that most of the ME rulers will not do much to overthrow Bahrain’s current ruler, other than lip service to make their own subjects think they are on the ‘right side’. They have too much to lose…..namely a place to party without having to worry too much about those pesky Islamic restrictions on booze, women, and basic partying.
“Sir… does this mean that Ann-Margret’s not coming?”
Clearly you have not been to Bahrain recently. The market is cornered by Chinese-Russians are nowhere to be found.
It is not in the least bit surprising. The King is not going to let the rabble upset his order.