Military and tribal leaders have thrown their weight behind the “youth protest” movement in Yemen after security forces fired on unarmed protesters earlier in the week:
As the country girded for the next stage of a deepening crisis, military units appeared to take sides in the capital, with the Republican Guard protecting the palace of President Ali Abdullah Saleh and soldiers from the First Armored Division under the defecting military commander, Brig. Gen. Ali Mohsin al-Ahmar, protecting the throngs of protesters in Sana…
The defection of General Ahmar, who commands forces in the country’s northwest, was seen by many in Yemen as a turning point, and a possible sign that government leaders could be negotiating an exit for the president. But the defense minister, Brig. Gen. Muhammad Nasir Ahmad Ali, later said on television that the armed forces remained loyal to Mr. Saleh.
That suggested the possibility of a dangerous split in the military should Mr. Saleh, who dismissed his cabinet late Sunday night in the face of escalating opposition, decide to fight to preserve his 32-year rule. His son Ahmed commands the Republican Guard, and four nephews hold important security posts, and their ability to retain the loyalty of their troops in the face of ballooning opposition has yet to be tested…
At the same time, one of the country’s most important tribal leaders, Sheik Sadeq al-Ahmar, said Monday that he would join the country’s protest movement. He is the head of the Hashid tribal confederation, to which the president belongs, and his support for antigovernment demonstrations is another serious blow to Mr. Saleh.
“Yemen is not the property of Ali Saleh or the Hashids,” Sheik Ahmar told protesters in Sana as he endorsed their movement.
I don’t know what’s more surprising: How long it took for the Arabs to rise up against their assorted autocrats, or the breathtaking speed at which the whole thing seems to be un-spooling.
At least in the short term one thing appears to be likely: al Qaeda no longer needs Afghanistan as a home base.
They are all Afghanistan now.
Crystallization in a supersaturated solution.
All it takes is a minute seed.
It’s all Bush’s fault. I’m nearly sure of that. I’m almost positive.
While I was always supportive of the position that the status quo was NOT working and shaking up the Middle East almost had to be better in the long term, the middle term is looking worse than I expected. I’m beginning to think that the entire Middle East is going to have to have its flirtations with their local version of the Taliban. Long term, I think it still has the potential to be better since this is the people’s choice and when they get sick of the Taliban or their local equivalents (as the Afghans and Iraqis have) they will know that they can choose to throw them off as well. Democracy does not ensure that the people choose wisely, but it tends to be self-correcting over time. This is its strength.
Before getting too starry eyed about democracy always working in the long run just remember that Hitler was democratically elected.
I also don’t really remember either Afghanistan or Iraq “organically” throwing off their Taliban or equivalent despots. Seems imported American riflemen were a pretty big part of that particular electorate.
One of the ironic, for lack of a better word, elements in the whole ME situation, is that NO ONE could have forseen current events as recently as six months ago.
Perhaps a guess, or forlon hope (those words will always remind me of the Bernard Cornwall novels), would have been one ME/NA country uprising. But Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria? NFW.
How it will all turn out is anyones guess, and only that. Would that we had a competent political leader at the helm.
I agree completely with your last sentiment. I believe we would be in a better position if we were making an effort to shape the outcome of these uprisings and that started with the Iranian uprising of last year. An unswervingly outspoken dedication to a true freedom agenda, supporting the Iranian people and calling for democratic reforms from our allies BEFORE their people took matters into their own hands would have us in a better place. The consistency would be would have been a steadying influence as well.
I definitely agree with that.
Actually there was a strong hint of unrest, but buried deep in the bowels of a commodity trading desk. A report looked at the price rise in sugar, cotton, cooking oil and rightly concluded that in Arab countries where the majority spend 40-60% of total income on food, that major unrest was brewing. Government subsidies to keep the lid on price rise could not be continued. Remember Tunisia was started by a street vendor that couldn’t feed his family and was reduced to self-immolation in protest.
Unfortunately, we don’t do well at connecting the dots into a coherent picture. Seems that takes one that can stand to be the “lone voice crying in the wilderness”. We ain’t got many of them left.
Hey, guys, I’ve got a great idea! Let’s give the rebels a no-fly zone!
Nope – no oil in Yemen….they are not priority.
Unfortunately, I just can’t be as optimistic as many seem to be. Popular uprisings throwing down evil strongarm tribal leaders only to have OTHER evil strongarm tribal leaders step into their places doesn’t seem to be a winning proposition to me, somehow.
Which has been the point of this whole f#cking mess! Destabilize the ME and turn it into a cesspool of Sharia law, driven by the lovely cabal of Mooozlem Bruthahood, y’all. Peace on Earth, and good will toward Men. That sort of thing.
That Obama would suborn this multi-national revolution, which is what it is, does not surprise me in the least. Sometimes I wonder if he hasn’t been acting the fool, in an attempt to play us for one. I have no respectably printable language left for him, and feel nothing but utter contempt for the duplicitous b@$tard.