Writing in the Financial Times, Philip Stevens notes President Obama’s redeployment of a combat brigade from Europe to CONUS and welcomes the move:
In the circumstances, many would say that the intelligent course for Europeans is to plead with the Americans to stay. The harsh truth, though, is that Europe needs shock treatment. As long as they are nestling comfortably under the US security umbrella, Europeans will continue to inhabit a postmodern utopia in which the only thing to do with defence spending is to cut it and the only power worth talking about is of a distinctly soft variety.
In Libya, NATO is proving not merely anachronistic but inept. At home, renewed zeal for deficit reduction has caused President Obama to call for another $400 billion in national defense cuts over a 12-year period, even as ground forces return from Iraq – and ultimately, it is to be hoped, Afghanistan – with worn out equipment that will need to be replaced.
The question is whether the European states will chip in more of their national resources to defend themselves and their interests once the Yanks come home, or whether they will simply put their heads in the sand and hope for the best. Instabilities abound: The Balkans remain a chocolate mess of seething ethnicities, illegal migrations and organized crime. Things in the Levant and Northern Africa will probably get worse before they get better. Vladimir Putin openly weeps for the loss of Soviet satellite states. And then there is the ongoing issue of non-assimilating, aggressive counter-culturals at home.
The American left yearns to emulate a European model that the Europeans themselves have finally realized is unsustainable. We’ll never get there of course – the out-year deficits and mushrooming interest on the debt virtually assure that – but we’ll slash our force projection capability along the way.
The consequences will be a world left to fend largely for itself, the opportunity for our military to play more home games, rather than away, and fairer fights, with the outcome very much in doubt. This satisfies one of the president’s campaign promises: Candidate Obama assured us that, were he to become president, not only would a war like the one we fought in Iraq not have happened, he was going to ensure that it couldn’t happen.
Hyperpower: It was good while it lasted.
The left aren’t all as stupid as they seem making me wondering that, if they don’t all have their head in the sand or otherwise inserted deep into some dark orifice, just what their end game really is? Utopian fantasy or socialist dictatorship? But that will get me branded as some tin-hatted loon. But no intellectually honest assessment of any European style social democratic system can be judged as other than an abject failure to deliver on its promises. So either they are all stupid or wanting something different than what we used to have.
The biggest problem with the Left is that no one, not even Obama, has yet to have anyone take something from them by force. They’re so willing to
beatinstill sacrifice as a virtue in others, while continuing to hold that which is dear to them close to the vest.That’s another of the real problems. Isn’t it? Without a willingness to make an honest assessment, the Left continues to press on. The data is out there, but in their minds, somehow, Karl Marx still has it right.
Tin-hatted loon? Consider it a badge of honor, my friend. Some have been called far worse by lesser minds.
Do not go gentle into that good night,
Old age should burn and rage at close of day;
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Though wise men at their end know dark is right,
Because their words had forked no lightning they
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Good men, the last wave by, crying how bright
Their frail deeds might have danced in a green bay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Wild men who caught and sang the sun in flight,
And learn, too late, they grieved it on its way,
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Grave men, near death, who see with blinding sight
Blind eyes could blaze like meteors and be gay,
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
And you, my father, there on the sad height,
Curse, bless me now with your fierce tears, I pray.
Do not go gentle into that good night.
Rage, rage against the dying of the light.
Here’s hoping that we do, in fact, rage against the dying of the light. For once our light is extinguished, there dcometh not another.
Sir,
There hasn’t been a real NATO – with the qualified exception of the UK – since the mid-90s. They pretty much wiped out any real offensive capability about then and have kept just enough guys with guns to avoid losing US as their army/air force/navy for hire. The sooner we end the farce, the better. Either Europe will stand on its own two feet or they will fall back into their old habits…and this time we will be unable to rescue them from their own foolishness.
Mike
The question is whether the European states will chip in more of their national resources to defend themselves and their interests once the Yanks come home, or whether they will simply put their heads in the sand and hope for the best.
Two major factors that point to “hope for the best” as the most likely outcome.
1) Putting more money into defense means taking money out of social services and changing their cultures to raise productivity. They’re already trying to do that just because of their present debt levels and rioting is the result. So the will to pinch social services even more and tell people that they’ll have to work harder is unlikely to be found.
2) “And then there is the ongoing issue of non-assimilating, aggressive counter-culturals at home.” They are more likely to welcome invaders with open arms than they are to take up arms to defend against them.
They are past growing up, the Europeans are like trying to get your 80 year old GrandDad to go out for a 20 mile hike……and they call Americans lazy…..we’ve been defending these ungrateful b@stards for far too long…..we should have pulled up stakes 10 years ago…..
The exception to that is the Brits….they have been and will always be our one friend in Europe…I’m glad we have them as they are the ones you want on your side.
If we pulled out of all alliances and retained two allies worldwide, IMO they should be the UK and Israel. All else can fend for themselves, or get on that long dark train bound for hell, for all I care.
I’d add Japan, ROK, and Australia.
Anglosphere, Mongo. My 2 cents.
I got to see NATO up close and personal at the CAOC in Vicenza during Allied Force. A couple of things became apparent: One, if the US was MLB, then the closest to us was the RAF, and they were AA ball. France was a good NCAA team, and the rest were HS. We had several nations that owned no PGMs, and couldn’t employ them if we gave them to them. When you looked at the CAP plan, you saw seven stations, fully manned, 24×7, with four hour blocks — except this TINY little block on one. I asked someone WTF? GAF Mig 29s — can’t be AARd. Palm slap…
Second, I have serious doubts (proven once again in Libya — wash, rinse, repeat) about NATOs ability to operate in anything other than the defense. It is one thing to screw your political courage to the sticking point when the T-80s are speeding down A66 in the Fulda Gap — a little more abstract in the offense. I don’t think they can, or more importantly, will. You should have seen the “discussions” in the EUCOM JIAPC following 9-11, about what the Germans would, and wouldn’t do. ‘Nuff said.
With regrets, the journals of which we shall never read.
That first paragraph? It made me shudder. Mostly because the whole scenario has been going on for too long.
PS How do they pronounce CAOC? Chaos?
Scott, I wouldn’t change A SINGLE WORD of your assessment. Even back in the late 60s/early 70s during my time in USAFE this was all VERY apparent. (If pressed, I guess my only exception is that the French seem more than willing to take offensive action–within the limits of their abilities–to uphold FRENCH geopolitical national interests since De Gaulle, haven’t they? (But then they always have, especially re their former colonies in Africa–the francophone cultural ties are strong.)
After we complete our occupation of Germany, we will no longer act as a deterrent to the European governments. One of those governments will eventually decide it is in their national interest to arm. Unopposed, they will then decide to employ that armed force in conquest or to impose religious preference on their own population. Looking at the pattern of wars in Europe, it’s pretty obvious that something will eventually get ugly.
We are going to let NATO (France and Britain) take the lead, NATO (France and Britain) will fail to remove Qaddaffi (or however you spell his damn name) and in a year or so a passenger jet full of Americans is going to blow up over the Atlantic because it’s always America’s fault.
At home the blame will be directed at GWB for antagonizing the Muslim world.
“The Balkans remain a chocolate mess of seething ethnicities, illegal migrations and organized crime” (Lex). “They are past growing up, the Europeans are like trying to get your 80 year old GrandDad to go out for a 20 mile hike……and they call Americans lazy” (SK1)
Since the UN handed over Kosovo to the Eu (with the French the lead nation in the first year)I heard the ex pat skilled trainers and `justice support` workers started leaving in their droves, allegedly caused by the senior management squabbles,arse dragging and budget cuts. I hear they are even taking jobs supporting Serbia. Still, at least the French introduce a drastically reduced working week and an early finish on Fridays – my pals worked 6 12 hr days minimum and half Sundays every week.I nearly fell for the job ad. and went 18 months ago. Glad I was warned off by one of those that baled.
The title, SK1′s comment about Europe as the 80 year old grandfather, and the baseball comparison that Scott made got me to thinking.
Since the War To End War, The Sequel, western Europe has been the little kid and the US the parent. Europe has been able to do as it pleases within limits, and the US has been there to keep it safe and bail it out if it gets in trouble and to face down the bully. With the sort of centralized EEU Europe is like the kid in a gang, bucking parental authority, but also depending on the parent for protection both economic an physical. Whining when asked to help with the chores, but expecting “three hots and a cot” at the parents expense, and being a spoiled brat about it.
Now the parent is saying “Look, you need to pull your weight around here” and of course the kid is balking. But still demanding the parent support it. At some point we need to say “No more! Get a job, pay your own way.”
As is so often the case, the monster, once having been created, is expected to (de)evolve into a normal grown-up. Sometimes the “You’re 18. You’re out!” is the best way forward.
And that is exactly how I feel about the conflict in Lybia. If the EU wants to secure energy in northern Africa, they should do it themselves. The 4 greatest exporters of oil/gas from Libya are Italy, France, U.K. and China. What the US is doing bombing Lybia is beyond me.
I would also just like to say that the second largest exporter of oil from Sudan after the Sudanese Gov’t is currently the French run oil company…
So George Clooney, please translate all your Darfur movies into French and screen them in Paris because the US Govt demanded that American oil companies abandon their equipment in place over 15 years ago due to human rights violations. Not so the French…
Pardon my chuckling at the astuteness of your remark.