A company of the 1st Infantry Division stands athwart the simmering ethnic fault line of Kirkuk, providing training to an Iraqi army brigade as their mission winds down:
The Iraqi soldiers at Gaines Mills say all the things the United States wants to hear. The training has been valuable, says Major Thakir Muner Hassan, and their US-supplied weapons are a huge improvement over Hussein-era stock.
“The Iraqi Army is very tough and a very strong army, but unfortunately the old regime got the Iraqi Army tired,’’ Hassan says. “I would like to keep training with the US Army, because they’re the most strong army in the world.’’ As he speaks, relaxed and breezy on the Iraqi side of the villa, two American soldiers sit ramrod-straight beside him.
McKay, the platoon leader, says Iraqi soldiers are improving and becoming more independent. He cites a recent search for four bomb makers. While the Iraqis surrounded and raided a town, the Americans remained on the periphery.
“We’re not knocking down doors, not arresting anybody. It’s the Iraqi Army,’’ McKay says. “We don’t have any control over what they do.’’
McKay speaks with a slightly world-weary air. The baton has been passed, even in restive Kirkuk Province, and McKay now is less of a charge-ahead warrior than an observant backup.
“Most of the senior officers are from the old Iraqi Army, and it’s pretty clear they can take care of what’s going on around here,’’ the lieutenant says. When asked if the time has come to leave, McKay pauses for several seconds, his hand on his rifle, his eyes narrowing, and his mind in motion.
“That’s a hard one to answer,’’ McKay says. “We’re all ready to get back to our families. I think if it’s not time to go, it’s getting really close. There’s only so much you can do.’’
Iraq’s security forces are considered much better than they were a few years ago. “Are we making gains every day? Yes, we are,’’ said Lieutenant General Michael Ferriter, who oversees the training effort in Iraq. However, the threat from meddling neighbor countries is considered real, dangerous, and possibly overwhelming. Going forward, that means an uncertain role for the United States after the last troops depart.
The real danger of course is Iran, whose meddling in the region – best exemplified in Lebanon and Syria – is at least in part enabled by the fracturing of the former coalition of uneasy allies the US built up over several decades:
Iranian aggression, and not the peace process, as Netanyahu was careful to remind his American audiences this past week, is still the key regional issue. With the administration turning on traditional American allies, some observers are starting to see similarities between Washington and Tehran, in one important respect. “If Obama says the status quo is unsustainable,” says Martin Kramer of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, “and won’t do anything to sustain it, then Washington, like Iran, is an anti-status quo power. Others have to take it upon themselves to defend the status quo.”
Expect more history to be written about a region that already has far too much of it.
I’m afraid that, because of the large numbers of Shia in Iraq, Iran’s influence will strengthen after we leave, possibly to the point of dominating the country. If that happens, then most of what we have done was for naught, and it would have been better to leave Sadaam in power. At least he kept the Iranians out and acted as something of a bulwark against their influence.
If Iran does end up with strong, or dominating influence in Iraq, then Israel will be in even deeper Kimshi that she is now.
Bet that Isreali leadership are not sleeping much right now, or are the Kurds.
Would like us to take on Syria (just a few bombs in the right place) before we try Persia.
Maybe our own Irish O’Bummer will next work regime change on Iran…maybe Libya is just a warm up for that. Uh huh.
Those hundreds of billions were burning a hole in our pockets anyway…
Saw a cartoon today where Dear Leader was saying, “I am not going to let the 50% of people who not pay taxes bear the burden of the other 50% that are not paying their fair share”.
Had to have me some Pepto upon reading that cartoon.
That falls under the “Things We’d Like To See” category. Ain’t gonna happen except in someone’s Meth inspired dreams. I don’t think alcohol would be strong to induce that kind of dream.
Best outcome would be Iran implodes under weight of a “Persian Spring”…Beady eyes Whack-amin-nutjob dissapears like the old Russian leaders did….worst case, Iran does exert pressure and Iraq falls under thier influence….no real middle ground unless we stay in Iraq permanently
1st scenario would be best…..2nd one would be bad…very very bad. Last one would be tough but might yeild best outcome….we will see.
If it is nothing else, the ME is dynamic. I’ve been hearing and reading for almost two generations (since 1979) that the moderates (a relative term) in Iran will take over again. I do not give much credence to substantive change to the positive happening in Iran organically.
I don’t think that Iraqis would let Iran take over their country, and certainly that has to be a fear for neighboring Arab countries. Right now some factions in Iraq are playing the “enemy of my enemy” game, though as often said, getting off that particular tiger may be a challenge.
While the Arab vs Persian feud may inspire some to resist Iran, I have serious doubts they will not fall under Iranian domination. Persia does not have to take Iraq to effectively rule it. See Finland Vs the Soviet Union to see what could happen, and I think that would be a “Best Case” thing, particularly if Iraq refuses to take up arms against Israel. I seriously doubt that refusal, however.
QM, have to admit that both Finland and current Syria are object lessons. Though Finland had very good reason to know that the USSR was not bluffing and I think it unlikely that Iran would overtly invade Syria.
My overall impression (and that is all it is as my crystal ball is fubar) is that the Shia in Iraq is only a friend to the Iranian Shia so long as it helps the Iraqi Shia against the Sunni Shia.
One of the most lasting effects of Israel being militarily fought to a draw by Hezbollah (which is a big win in Arab/Muslim eyes) will be to embolden Arabs- I hope that Iraq doesn’t get stupid because Isreal will not hold back in any future military challenge as they did in Lebanon.
Not a small element in the equation is that Saudi Arabia would probably prefer that Iran not be on their border.
OTOH, I’m armchair quarterbacking. I do agree with Michael Totten, a person not unfamiliar with the ME, (paraphrasing) that anyone who thinks they know what any given country in the ME is going to do, or why they are going to take certain actions, is just guessing.