That’s the optimistic take from the WSJ on the latest deadly clash on Pakistan’s border:
The investigation may clear up what happened but it won’t address the root of the problem. Pakistan continues to play both sides in this conflict. The military accepts billions of dollars in U.S. aid and fights some terror groups.Since the fall of the Taliban in 2001, however, Afghan insurgents have moved across the border and found safe haven in tribal regions and Pakistani cities like Quetta and Karachi. Elements of the Pakistani military arm, fund and provide intelligence to the Haqqani network of insurgent fighters and the Taliban. U.S. officials aren’t sure if the Pakistanis also command the terrorists. Yet either way, Pakistan is complicit in the deaths of American and allied soldiers fighting in Afghanistan…
The Pakistanis should think harder about what a break with America would mean. Washington would cut off aid and possibly place it on the list of state sponsors of terrorism. The U.S. would have no choice but to build even closer ties with India, including a larger role for Delhi in Kabul. America has a national survival interest in denying terrorists a sanctuary, and ensuring that weapons of mass destruction don’t fall in their hands. That includes Pakistan’s weapons. It’s lonely in the region if China is your only friend.
The article goes on to state that the relationship between Pakistan and the US is like a troubled marriage, one that just needs more work. That perhaps we’ve hit bottom, and can now bounce back.
But this “troubled marriage” has an end-date associated with it: By the end of 2014, NATO combat troops will be largely gone from Afghanistan, and Pakistan’s cooperation in the war against terrorism can be more meaningfully analyzed based on its own merits.
There may just come a reckoning.
We say things like, “playing both sides against the middle” and “siding with the enemy”. We are surprised when Pakistan does something crazy like harboring OBL, or Khan, the nukes for hire guy…
The reality is that Pakistan isn’t a country in the sense that Westerner’s know a country, it’s a collection of tribes with a flag. Our notions of what good and proper behaviour should be doesn’t mesh at all with their culture of “my brother and I against the tribe”, “the tribe and I against outsiders”, “my brother in religion against everyone else”, “my military brothers against the civilian government”. It’s a patchwork of allegiances. The very idea that they have areas on their own maps marked as “[lawless] Tribal Areas” gives you an idea that they don’t really want to exert power there- it gives them a perfect excuse to be perfidious.
Regardless of what is put into Wikipedia, or that we have a single ambassador over there, they do not have a central government that centrally controls everything. Foreign Aid is a polite term for “we sent money & goods over there and it’s ends up lining someone’s pocket”
I think we cut off aid, cut off support and re-evaluate the thinking that said we wanted to have some sort of presence on the USSR/China border and wanted stability in that area- so we supported both India & Pakistan to prevent nukes from being used…Pull out and let the Indians steam roll them.
Good point
…in that area- so we supported both India & Pakistan to prevent nukes from being used… Grab the nukes, pull out and let the Indians steam roll them.
Fixed it for you… I wonder if it can be done. Or do we end up with an even larger safe haven for the bad guys. Just a reducing set of increasingly bad options.
Inform them all aid is now on a zero base budgeting basis, effective immediately. Their current base is zero.
Terminate all existing military sales and support.
Embargo all imports and exports with them.
Send a high level delegation to the Indians ASAP.
Increase UAV strikes and surveillance many fold…from the sea.
Then offer to negotiate. Delivery of all Al Queda and Taliban in country to US custody would be a good faith gesture.
Next step offer mil assistance to India. Attach all assets in the US.
Remain polite. Smile.
Love it, Grandpa. Wouldn’t you think that the Indians already have contingency plans to secure Pakistan’s nukes? They must have several plans/options for Pakistan by now… that’s why I like your plan so much. They may take care of the biggest problem and it then goes away for us.
Gotta go with what Grandpa said. Let the Whacki-Pakis deal with our terms or suffer the consequences.
“There may just come a reckoning.”
Love that phrasing.
While the Paks seem to getting cozy with the Chinks, I think the possible side effects scare them. They know there is no such thing as being half eaten by a Tiger. While the Chinks like to smile and make nice to your face, they are not to be trusted.
What we give to the Paks now could be used in the game against China. I’d withhold a lot from the Philippines until they change there mind on basing, but the Real Republic Of China would deeply appreciate the help. If we could get the Anamese that run Vietnam these days to moderate their Fascism, helping them would also make sense. ROK, I think, can already take care of themselves. I’d like to see the Japs become a Naval power again.
China could be contained. It will take some work, and a bit of luck. The luck comes in with the economic situation we find ourselves in. If the economy really crashes, we’ll be luck to brush our teeth much less protect anything abroad.
China’s economy is export driven. If our economy crashes who is China going to export to? Europe? They’re not going to be buying much for the next few years. If our economy crashes so does theirs. At least we’ve already got a good bit of hardware already paid for.
China is in the same predicament as the USSR. Their economy is hobbled by its own internal contradictions. Attempts at matching the US on the international stage will simply hasten the collapse.
All true. However, they can thrash a bit before they die, and teh damage they could do in that short interval is horrific.
Besides, they know we are going down. What they can do to prepare, I don’t know, but would not put anything past them as there aren’t nearly as many contradictions as with teh USSR. It’s more like Nazi Germany.
Instead of a divorce, perhaps a 20 megaton high burst in two or three locations would settle things. That way, the wily Chinee will have to bring their lead-lined skivvie drawers to have any part of the damned place.
But for practical reasons, go with Grandpa’s suggestion. Not one more morsel of military aid. No giving away our OHPs or any other grey hull to these sonsabitches.
Grandpa Bluewater and I are on the same page here. Our profligate country has been flinging stacks of money at Pakistan for far too long, so that wusses like our present President can say ‘but-but-but I gave them everything they wanted.’ Now I ask you, those of you who have children, how often does that particular game work around your house? The kids know they have you over a barrel and they immediately take advantage and ask for more-more-more. When the Pakis grabbed our contractor who was acting as a field agent, probably, we should have said to whomever is at the head of this conglomeration of nutty tribes, “Give back our guy or you don’t get another penny in aid from our government. We don’t care who started this rumble. Knock it off immediately.”
It’s difficult for me as a woman to understand why big strong governments like our own would pussyfoot around and act in weakness. You warriors particularly should understand this, since I doubt those of you who have participated in military engagements would ever act as weak Willies in the heat of battle.
Marianne
Because of Afghanistan we need Pakistan more than they need us. That puts them in the position of power. It also means it is our responsibility to maintain the relationship. For the last few years they’ve been abusing that power. Shortly we won’t need them nearly as much. We also won’t forget their abuses.
We need intell, clear routes to and over the Hindu Kush, and use of some convenient air bases.
They deceive(d)us on the intell they feed us, blocked the routes and blocked use of the air bases. We are paying for….?
That’s the thing about monopolies. They get to charge a lot and provide little. The solution is to either break the monopoly or get out of the market.
Apparently the fact that we’ve been negotiating/working with Russia and a couple of the ‘stans on building a land route from those countries is not common knowledge…
I suspect Paki nukes are more of a current concern than land routes through that country.
Marianne, using a Happy Birthday to Mr. Winston Churchill as a seque -the root cause, or at least a primary one, is that we no longer have Political Masters the caliber of Mr. WLSC.
We have been kicking the can down the road regarding Pakistan for many decades -no country having nukes has ever been dictated to by another country (I do not believe the Cuba/Russia event of years past was as clean cut as our history books show -I have to believe there was some quid pro quo behind the scenes).
We are hosed without a strong Political Master
We have been giving up some level of security in exchange for some level of peace, for quite some time. As the saying goes, at some point in time we will have neither.
Without the right, strong government none of this will happen at the time and manner that provides for our best interest.
I think the quid pro quo was pulling our missiles out of Turkey.
I have read that, and a few other items- I never had access to data to confirm or have read (multiple sourced) information as to the background on the ‘cuba/USSR/JFK issue.
My advice: start learning Hindi.
If the Pakis think China is their buddy, who are we to disabuse them of their fantasy?
They’ll find out, too late probably – The Han don’t play. They will eat Pakistan alive, simply as a method to contain India’s expansion.
One hopes that buried in the bowels of each piece of US military kit sold to the pakidogs is a “kill” switch – like we used to install in various weapons systems sold abroad. And an embedded GPS transmitter so that a calling card can be left upon each and every doorstep.
Postnote:
Go check the article at Wired about the State Department hiring Paki mercs to gaurd the diplo-staff in pakistan. The contract lets on Thursday. So in the midst of the firestorm US dips will be “protected” by paki mercs? Wonder if those overseas staffers have a bell to ring or Drop on Request?
Get me outta here Percy.
You have to wonder if they are off their meds, or smoking something strange to let a contract like that. The State Dep. however, seems to have little intelligance so this may be simply in character for them.
Nice one Grandpa B. Well we’ve just shut down the Iranian Embassy in London so maybe our Foreign Sec is in the mood to give the Paki’s the quickstep. India now owns Jaguar, the last steel manufacturer left in the UK and countless other companies and their forefathers fought like lions alongside ours at Monte Casino and elsewhere. C’mon POB, you go first.
What Grandpa B said. Except possibly for the Remain polite. Smile. Not sure they deserve that at this point.
Oh, it’s always good to be polite. Right up to the point that you get impolite.
A polite threat with teeth beats bluster, every time.
Churchill had something to say about the cost of being polite…