I haven’t completely gotten through my Gibbon, so this brief primer on Late Antiquity was a useful read:
It is perhaps something of a truism to compare our own age with the period of the collapse of the Western Roman Empire. Funnily enough, when researching my thesis, which had a chapter about Saint Augustine, I read quite a lot about what historians call Late Antiquity…
So, what can we learn from the twilight of the Roman Empire?
For a start, it is a mistake to think of it as a twilight. The Empire was substantially intact at the death of Theodosius the Great in 395, and even after 410, when Rome had been sacked by Alaric the Goth, Augustine makes clear in The City of God that he thinks that Rome, though suffering a reverse, is by no means defeated. Indeed, contemporary historians now think that while the fall of the North African provinces was a huge blow, which occurred in the year of Augustine’s death, 430 AD, it was only the two subsequent failures to win them back, in 461 and 468, that doomed the West. So, even into the second half of the fifth century, people in the Roman Empire may well have been confident that the Empire was going to survive, just as it had survived the very difficult period in the third century before the accession of Diocletian.
An interesting read, coming as it does with a degree of beneficent separation in time and space. Far better to read about Rome’s eventual fall than live through it, I should think.
Like Victor Davis Hanson is doing:
I am starting to feel as if I am living in a Vandal state, perhaps on the frontier near Carthage around a.d. 530, or in a beleaguered Rome in 455. Here are some updates from the rural area surrounding my farm, taken from about a 30-mile radius. In this take, I am not so much interested in chronicling the flotsam and jetsam as in fathoming whether there is some ideology that drives it.
Last week an ancestral rural school near the Kings River had its large bronze bell stolen. I think it dated from 1911. I have driven by it about 100 times in the 42 years since I got my first license. The bell had endured all those years. Where it is now I don’t know. Does someone just cut up a beautifully crafted bell in some chop yard in rural Fresno County, without a worry about who forged it or why — or why others for a century until now enjoyed its presence?
The city of Fresno is now under siege. Hundreds of street lights are out, their copper wire stripped away. In desperation, workers are now cementing the bases of all the poles — as if the original steel access doors were not necessary to service the wiring. How sad the synergy! Since darkness begets crime, the thieves achieve a twofer: The more copper they steal, the easier under cover of spreading night it is to steal more. Yet do thieves themselves at home with their wives and children not sometimes appreciate light in the darkness? Do they vandalize the street lights in front of their own homes?
–
If I were to use a cellphone while driving and get caught, the state might make an easy $170 for five minutes’ work. If the same officer were to arrest the dumper who threw a dishwasher or refrigerator into the local pond among the fish and ducks, the arrest and detention would be costly and ultimately fruitless, providing neither revenue from a non-paying suspect nor deterrence against future environmental sacrilege. We need middle-class misdemeanors to pay for the felonies of the underclass.
The state’s reaction to all this is a contorted exercise in blaming the victim, in both the immediate and the abstract senses. Governor Brown wants to raise income taxes on the top two brackets by 1 to 2 percentage points, making them over 11 and 12 percent respectively. That our schools are near dead last in test scores, that many of our main freeways are potholed relics from the 1960s, that we just passed the DREAM Act to extend state financial support for college-age illegal aliens, and that the overtaxed are fleeing the state do not register. Again, those who in theory can pay, should — and should keep quiet about why they must suddenly pay a 12 percent income tax that was not needed, say, in 1991, 1971, or 1961, when test scores were higher, roads better, and communities far safer.
“And it came to pass in those days, that there went out a decree from Caesar Augustus, that all the world should be taxed.” — Luke 2:1
Not these days. Which is why, perhaps Rome will have had a gentler decline than we ourselves.
VDH is always a good read. I personally don’t think we are in irreversible decline-yet but we may have just one more chance…
How many ups and downs did Rome have before the final curtain?
DJ, you don’t ask for much do you. Put 5 historians in a room and 7 theoriesamidst much bitter infighting will emerge on that topic.
Executive summary:
The Roman Monarchy lasted for about 200 year. The monarchy had some problems, like two close-fought wars, but the last major crisis led to the Republic, which lasted about 500 years. The Republic had at least two very serious declines (one lasting 50 years) before becoming an Empire.
I can argue that the Empire (in the West) had 4 major crisis in 400 years. Lack of a sound succession policy led to poor leader / big civil wars (three times), plus a series of depopulating plagues were the main problems before the end. At the end, it looked like the return on investment in the Empire’s structure was poor. One study in paleo-nutrition states that the average of remains at the time showed improvements in health and food access in a wide-spread area after the Empire ended. The overarching theme would be diminishing returns on investments in social complexity. Plenty of other factors didn’t help, and historians still argue over the timing of the end.
Lead poisoning was not a factor, based on the science I’ve seen. Lead phosphate is easy to find in bones, and the average level of lead contamination is similar to today’s Europeans. Hmmm. Nah. Nothing to see here.
Sadly, you are mistaken. The die is already cast. One need look only at the math regarding the nations liabilities. There is no way to pay for all the promises made. Breaking those promises will result in racial and class violence that will make the 60′s look like romper room. We are on the edge of the dark, it is a mathematical surity. And to prevent it closing in totally, we shall happily vote for someone that promises law and order, regardless of what individual rights need to get trampled to achieve that. Witness the recent indefinite detention of americans legislation that was recently passed. The heat is slowly increasing but the majority of the frogs in the pot have yet to notice….
Breaking those promises will result in racial and class violence that will make the 60′s look like romper room. Cro
One reason the Roman Empire of the East survived as the Byzantine Empire. The implications have been on my mind for the last three years. True, we are headed for pain. But maybe not pain for all. It is unlikely, but there is a narrow path out of the power dive. It would take more wisdom and leadership and sound policy than shown by any politician in DC.
Agreed, Cro. Our very own loss of territories could be the Southwest United States where many fly the flag of Mexico and call the land their own. While some may cheer the loss of California, as Jay Leno reminds us so often, the rebellion, secession, and eventual effort to recover the lost lands, as perceived by our so friendly rebels from the south, could mirror the time after Theodoscious The Great when he lost the North African territories.
As Leno, and now Lex, point out, we are losing the struggle for control of cities in our Southwest and California. Why? If for nothing more, the mere greed of steeling a bell and stripping copper from the infrastructure. There must be hundreds, nay thousands, of such accounts already reported. It has even spread to the Pacific Northwest (I-5 being a conduit of evil as well as cars and trucks. And… to what end, except to fulfill the momentary need of cash by some criminal element that has no apparent trouble operating with imagination being their only limitation.
For society… it’s a recipe for a breakdown in our communities and lives as we know them. It’s a revolution!
Peter/
Some 20+ years ago an architect friend of mine in Louisville and I were discussing these very trends then in their nacent stages at which time he said with great vision about the inevitable logic of it all: “The Flag is coming down.”
I think they’ll have to fight for it though… the loss of California’s ability to pay for itself will bring it all down upon their heads that much faster. We won’t let it slip away “in the night”; I know we’ll fight it!
Arizona won’t go so easily … maybe Tucson (which is pretty much Mexico already) but not the rest of us.
Yet another example of the slide…..
http://blogs.orlandosentinel.com/features-the-religion-world/2011/12/22/defense-department-agrees-to-allow-muslim-cadets-to-wear-hijabs/
Cro/
Some here consider me borderline to an outright alcoholic because of my obsession with my beloved Barbancourt. News like the JROTC hijab bit only confirm that, to the contrary, I’m no alky–just a supreme realist…compelling me to quote yet once again my favorite Philosopher Lilly Tomlin:
“I try to be cynical–but I can’t keep up.”
vx,
Are you telling me that all of the differences of opinion about women in the service were formed by you while under the influence of your favorite beverage? If so, we’re even then… because I’m just out of a detox hospital stay. It seemed that 7 major operations in 5 years (4 back (caused by bad rear-end collision. The lady said, “brakes? It’s raining, brakes don’t work in the rain.”), then a bi-lateral knee replacement followed 8 months later by a knee “revision” because a doctor forgot to cover a bone and it grew back, in October resulted in the accumulation of too much “oxy” in my rusty old self.
So… look out now, because you’ll have the real me to contend with now… no more drugs for the kid! BTW, our daughter who is a Major in the Army Medical Corps completed her tour as XO of Madigan Army Hospital at Ft. Lewis with mucho gusto. So much so that the Army has sent her to the U of Washington for a 2 year Hospital Administration Masters degree. She won’t be a Major forever!!!
Peter/
A day late..
Sorry to hear of your travails…seems you’ve had more than your fair share..
Congrats on your daughter’s accomplishment my views on women in the service notwithstanding. You hide the “Proud Poppa” mien well–I could never tell.. (lol) Besides, being married to an RN for 38 yrs I would criticize the medical service at my peril.
Cro –
I only read part of what you linked to because it makes me sick.
The fact is that Muslim women are admonished to dress
“modestly”. There is no mention in the Koran of wearing the hijab. That is a “cultural” affectation.
The fact that our US military is buying into this garbage spells doom.
Having been born and raised in California, San Francisco to be exact, but now living in “Doity Joisey” for the last 40-odd years, I am naturally interested in news from the “old Sod:. I keep reading posts like this: http://pjmedia.com/eddriscoll/2011/12/24/california-there-it-went/
Sadly, I think it’s lost and gone forever. “Joisey” is right behind it. Or, at least on a parallel course.
As The Shadow said, “Who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of men”. Or, maybe the depths of their stupidity.
While Rome may have “fallen” in the 5th century, it is a long perpetuated myth that the Roman Empire also fell at the same time as Rome. In fact the Roman Empire along with its Roman State traditions continued on for nearly 1,000 more years, mostly intact and thriving.
Although the new capital of the Empire was Constantinople, the citizens still considered themselves Roman; indeed although more Greek than Roman, they called their continuing empire, Romania. Unfortunately, only in recent (Western-Civ) history have we so divided the East and West parts of the Roman Empire, largely ignoring the vast, rich, and important thousand-year history of the Byzantine Romans.
Recommended reading: Lost to the West
VDH although he knows better likes to modify or tailor his history to suit his political opinion of the moment. Such contrived and conflated politics and history grates on me.
Flit, VDH was discussing the impact of the Fall of the Western half of the Roman Empire as a parallel to his experiences in Central California. He is explicitly saying that today’s barbarians are destroying his way of life, and are not under control. He notes that the governmental bodies are lined up with the internal barbarians, not against them. Is this not a valid concern?
The Eastern half of the Empire (Byzantine) did not need to be part of the discussion. My science side would use them as a control. Two halves, with similar governance. Why did one fail, and the other survive?
I am quite familiar with the role Byzantine played in preserving the Greek and Roman culture, mostly by being taken by the Arabs and the Crusaders (4th Crusade. There was the indifference shown by the West in the 1450s as Constantinople stood alone against the Turks.
It’s a panoply of sinusoidal fortunes, with the greatness and the folly of man on full display. Like today.
+1 NaCly Dog
I’d also recommend a complete reading of Gibbons “Decline and Fall.” It doesn’t end with the fall of Rome, but goes to the dawn of the modern age.
The fact, however, that Roman traditions were often perpetuated (for example a She Wolf was kept in a cage on the Roman Forum until the 40s or 50s, until modern vandals made it impossible) doesn’t mean the empire stood. A good example is the old US Republic. That has been dead as a door nail since 1865 when Lincoln was finally able to conquer the south and refound the country. We have many of the same traditions established by the founders, but all we have now is the form, and I seriously doubt we will have that much longer.
my last assignment was in Ravenna, Italy, which has nice churches built in the 6th century as the Eastern Romans recolonized the west.
Ravenna’s churches survived the troubles because at the time it was surrounded by rivers and lagoons. When you drive around Umbria and Tuscany, all of the old towns that were founded during that time are built at the tops of hills, and I bet they were there not just for the view.
It’s an important question, can we keep the empire going a couple hundred years more with just some adjustments, or is this the end
and we should be looking at building hill towns and redoubts? Will the colonists landing in California be Texans, or Chinese?
NCD – Central California vandals are like are like ancient Vandals? And like the ancient Barbarians?
Oh, C’mon!
Entertaining as it might be to some, his implied syllogism is bogus:
……………..Hogwash!
Flit, I understand where you’re coming from. We do not have organized armed forces raping, pillaging, raping, and sacking cities in California. The late Western Roman Empire was a much bloodier time, and it does not directly correlate to modern California.
However, I still call those that steal copper from the inhabitants barbarians. We absolutely need electricity to run our civilization. Stealing the means to distribute power to an area is destroying civilization. The theft of copper is preventing food from being harvested, and homes, absent a stand-alone generator, are uninhabitable. The authorities are taking reports, but not stopping the actions of those criminals.
I aver that this is not progress, is of concern, and if continued, can be quite destructive. VDH is the man on the spot, and his analysis should be given weight.
The real worry is his theme that state and local government are actively targeting the (for now) prosperous citizens by extracting fines, not allowing citizens to self-protect by allowing weapons and a Castle Doctrine, and are not stopping the attacks. Individuals are made helpless against evil, unless they move to another state. Again, the is destructive of civilization.
NCD – With that, I pretty much agree.
In ca the productive class is being preyed upon by both the crimmigants and the government.
It will end in tears and blood.
butch – you think we have lots of crime, theft, and disorder? Check this out. We aren’t anywhere close!
I think some people like to exaggerate our problems. It is the politics of fear rather than logic where smaller problems are hyped for political purposes, falsely foretelling the end of our Republic.
The fact is, Flit, that leadership for solving problems starts at the very top, and now… well, to be nice what we have is a politically minded Chicago hack! We need a leader, not an orator whose life is still a mystery, complete with millions having been spent to keep it so.
Greetings:
“VDH’s” narrative brought forth echoes of my growing up in the Bronx of the ’50s and ’60s. In the latter half of the latter decade, things began to fall apart in our working/lower middle class neighborhood. Crime showed up, burglaries and muggings and such, followed by the dope plague. The local beat police started not showing up except for drive-thrus. Those would could joined the “white flight” movement and found happier living grounds. When pretty much everything of value had un-assed the area, there wasn’t much left for the barbarians to do but start burning down the housing stock. Fifty years later, its like it never happened. Another purged liberal success story. If you need a more current version, google “Detroit”.
My good man PeterGunn …….
(and incidentally also one of my favorite old TV shows, along with the jazz):
Maybe it is Babencourt or whatever, but you really can’t believe this, can you?
“Our very own loss of territories could be the Southwest United States where many fly the flag of Mexico and call the land their own. While some may cheer the loss of California, as Jay Leno reminds us so often, the rebellion, secession, and eventual effort to recover the lost lands, as perceived by our so friendly rebels from the south, could mirror the time after Theodoscious The Great when he lost the North African territories.”
I see absolutely nothing to indicate the sovereign country of the United Mexican States has any designs on invading or annexing any US border state. Never happen!
While many prefer to believe that much crime is the result of Latino undocumented aliens, there is not enough evidence for me. Crime and criminals cannot be categorized by ethnicity. It is pervasive, especially for those barely trying to survive… extreme opposite and questionable anecdotes notwithstanding.
I have not seen a Mexican Flag flying in California in years. I know they may, but I have not seen any. But I have seen a few rebel flags, Texas Republic flags, and especially rebel Bear Flag Republic flags. In fact, I sometimes fly the original old rebel Bear Flag Republic flag in front of my house for the heck of it.
Many of whom you broad-brushly berate are indeed US citizens – yes American citizens that work, pay taxes, worship, and serve in the military. In fact, even many undocumented aliens pay taxes in the false hope someday that will help with US citizenship.
The Great Southwest was once Spain’s domain, and later a large part of independent Mexico. The US essentially stole it from Mexico after trying to buy it, with a phony casus belli and a trumped up war. That Mexico had neither the settlers nor the military garrisons to protect the SW and California was only secondary. (Today we have armies, National Guard, and a panoply of LEAs to protect, control, and serve.) Eventually it was Manifest Destiny, and especially the Gold Rush, which later made the Mexican war inconsequential, albeit wrong.
Just because one nation can conquer another’s – as singularly and climatically happened to California in the small Battle of San Pasqual, does not make it right. But they, the legal Mexican citizens and settlers of what is now California never would have held it for long anyway. More importantly, and contrary to your post, it is not going back to Mexico either. Only the skin color will change slightly in the future. And there lies the essence of the problem
flit:
Your reflexive leftness is showing. Some of what you write is true, some is half-true, and some is unadorned garbage.
As far as taking land by force, I know that you know history much better than that. It has always been thus.
Paul
Oh please, oh please dear PLQ. I beg of you. What is it that I say is true; what is it I say is half-true; and especially please tell me which of that I say is “unadorned garbage?”
I pray you will enlighten me with specifics, so that I may no longer wallow in my misguided and regrettable ignorance, dear kind man.
Hello and Happy New Year Flit,
Thanks… I loved that TV show as well, plus the jazz was terrific! Blake Edwards and Robert Altman were some of the producers.
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0051301/
It’s not that I absolutely BELIEVE it WILL happen, but there are so very many frequent indications that Mexican Americans themselves, not Mexico, want to return their “native Mexican southwest” to their so-called “rightful” nation.
Really, Flit… I believe you should watch some of the news once in awhile, perhaps even take a look at something other than the NYT. CNN, Fox and other national and local outlets, including newspapers of the southwest, often broadcast and report stories of schools where principals refuse to allow US Flag T-Shirts, but cast a wandering eye as Mexican Americans wave Mexico’s national flag and wear their own Mexico emblazoned clothing. Have you really never seen or heard of these occurrences? I have seen reports of schools that fly the Mexican flag, not our very own… at least above Old Glory. http://www.wnd.com/?pageId=37688, http://www.truthorfiction.com/rumors/m/montebello-flag.htm, http://voices.washingtonpost.com/postpartisan/2010/03/the_mexican_flag_has_no_place.html. There are many more citations, if you care to check, on Google. It’s easy to find them!
A change of scene to LA and their many demonstrations of a similar mode. Posters, flying Mexican flags as far as the eye can see, marchers… it’s all there.
All of this and I agree with you that it’s not happening soon. I was postulating the comparison of the lost of our own Southwest (Arizona, New Mexico and SoCal… okay, so the later wouldn’t be that much of a loss, really [that's a joke, feeble and/or offensive that it may be]) to the similar fall of the Western Half of the Roman Empire after they loss the northern territories in North Africa… and failed in the attempt to re-take them, ending the Western Roman Empire. As Lex stated, the “West” was still intact until 410, years after Theodoscious’ demise. All of this is to say, I don’t expect it would happen, if ever, in the next year or fifty. I understand fully our civilian and military capacities – heck, our immediate family has had 5 of 7 of us serve in our nation’s defense. No lecture required there thanks.
Hearing of the “barbarism”, other commenters’ words, not mine, going on in California cities now, and the inability of our local authorities to guarantee the simple staple of electricity today, except to “take a report”, I wonder how long (10, 30, 50 or 100 years) before… well, whatever happens down in regions less loyal to the ideals of our union.
My comments are not a prediction, not a belief, but those of merely adding 1 + 1 + 1 … and using my scientific/philosophy education to form a postlate… at least the question? I don’t know it will happen; I definitely hope not, and that those who are dis-affected today may someday become loyal, believing citizens of “Good Ole’ Uncle Sam”, becoming responsible and productive citizens who’ll deal with the problems of their day… whenever that may be.
Dear Flit,
I know that Paul doesn’t need any help, least of all from me! However, your statement of, “I have not seeing a Mexican flag flying in California in years”, is some of your purest garbage.
Please refer to this citation, approved by none other than Snopes, itself:
http://www.snopes.com/photos/politics/mexicoflag.asp
Best regards… please watch/read the current news.
PG – The last time I was in Calexico – or was it Mexicali? I always confuse the two – was 40 years ago.
Shooting pool in a south-of-the border town bar, one of our group of 12 got into a heated disagreement with a local. Next thing we knew, fists were flying and a knife was pulled. We all ran about 300 yards as fast as we could for the border, with an angry mob close behind us. Good thing we all were in great physical shape!
So if a Mexican flag flew in Calexico or Mexicali, I was not there to see it within the past 40 years.
BT
**********************************************************
I am of Irish descent. Therefore I do often fly the National Irish Flag, in addition to an Erin Go Bragh Harp flag in front of my house. I fly them either alone, or below our Stars and Strips. No one has ever complained. And if they did, I would be upset! Although an American who has fought for my country, it is still my proud older heritage! And it is my right! Thus I have no problem with others either – (as we all are from “somewhere else” except our indigenous natives) – appropriately flying their former flag properly, of their old country alone, or below with ours.
To deny anyone that right is contrary to what this nation was originally founded upon!
flit:
Those “indigenous natives” are from somewhere else also. They are the descendants of the second wave of immigrants across the Bering Strait. By the by, the second wave killed off all of the first wave and thus became the first in this hemisphere to take the land with blood.
Re above: I rather think that you know which is which. I suspect that you are at one with Adam Savage’s motto. Also that you hugely enjoy twisting our tails to see us jump and froth.
Paul
+1
Fair enough… I would never object to the flag of Ireland. Unless it were flown ABOVE our own National Banner with the Stars and Stripes flown upside down just below.
I feel that we’re getting closer to an understanding of one another here. One thing I can’t imagine is the chase you experienced in Claexico or Mexicali. I’m happy you made to the border intact, and were very happy to see our National Banner. But… isn’t that rather the point here? Check out “Mexican flags flown in California” on Google and the same in the US… you won’t believe the stories and number of reports; just take a look and you’ll be amazed.
After-all, it was just a few years back that modern sensitivities and better judgment finally prevailed, calling for the removal of the Confederate Rebel Battle Flag from the upper-most position of the South Carolina Capitol building. In my younger past, I remember seeing the Rebel Banner also flying from the Georgia Statehouse. My point is that history takes decades in some instances, even a hundred years in other cases. Perhaps 400 years as it did with the Roman West.
I’m sure you’ve heard of and understand the theory of the “Slippery Slope”. Not to mention that in some cases, it’s all-out WRONG!
“Once the Plebs discovered that they could vote themselves bread and circuses, the Republic was doomed.”
– “Always scribble, scribble, scribble, eh Mr. Gibbon?”
Sorry about you guys who have to live in Kali, with all the florid, violent, and really egregious loonies.
I only have to put up with Flarduh, where we have the failed, sad, incompetent loser loonies, who couldn’t get it together enough to go West, but just sort of dribbled down into this flaccid-looking appendage of a State, with its dribbling gleet of the Keys.
JTG – Back in the day, and I do mean way, way back, when we lived in Pensacola for 3 years, all of the states were still using their multi-letter abbreviations… ie., CALIF, FLA, MONT, NEB, etc. Anytime we talked with family or friends who lived in California that “CALIF” stood for: “Come and live in Florida”.
I hope we didn’t contribute to the problem you describe!