Having threatened to shoot itself in the foot by closing the Strait of Hormuz, and having heard the US 5th Fleet reply that “it’s just not going to happen,” cooler heads are prevailing, for now, in the Islamic Republic:
Iranian officials insist that the U.A.E. pipeline and others that are being constructed in the region will not lessen the strategic importance of the Hormuz Strait. But they have raised the issue repeatedly, which analysts say is a sign that they are nervous about it.
And Iran — which has enjoyed record oil profits over the past five years but is faced with a dwindling number of oil customers — relies on the Hormuz Strait as the departure gate for its biggest client: China.
“We would be committing economical suicide by closing off the Hormuz Strait,” said an Iranian Oil Ministry official who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the subject. “Oil money is our only income, so we would be spectacularly shooting ourselves in the foot by doing that.”
Ahmad Bakhshayesh Ardestani, a political scientist running for parliament from the camp of hard-line clerics and commanders opposing Ahmadinejad, said it is “good politics” for Iran to respond to U.S. threats with threats of its own.
“But our threat will not be realized,” Ardestani said. “We are just responding to the U.S., nothing more.”
Domestic politics, in other words. Nothing to see here, move along.
Well, perhaps. But the rational actor theory has its critics.
Iran has a real interest in seeing the price of oil rise. It has nothing to gain, however, by cutting off its own ability to deliver the oil it sells.
I said it before: If Iran didn’t rattle its saber, we wouldn’t waste the hundreds of millions for 5th Flt, NAVCENT, NSA Bahrain and whatever CVBG is trolling around the Arabian Gulf (because we’re to protect Arabs) at any time.
“Rationality” argued that England& France were Nazi Germany’s largest trading partners. “Rationality” says the same for China re the US. “Rationality” said that Ho Chi Minh could have gotten a far better financial/economic deal for “his people” than he could ever have (or did) by force of arms. History from time immemorial is littered with the graves of people who ignored ideology, religion, tribalism and personal aggrandizement as factors which almost always trump rationality–otherwise we wouldn’t have the story of the frog and the scorpion crossing the river–or the song about the woman who foolishly took in the freezing snake to nurse him back to health..”Oh take me in, pretty woman…”
* “…deal from LBJ…”
PPS: I should also add that the economics based theory of “rational choice” has imbedded within it an implied “iron law” of “rational progress” always, inevitably, advancing the material and metaphysical condition of man via “rationalist” social evolution within “a “rationalist” economic construct. A look at the now famous comparison photo of the Univ of Cairo class of 1959 and subsequent classes should disabuse anyone of such fantasies. See@ http://www.newsrealblog.com/2011/02/01/am-i-the-only-one-troubled-by-cairo-street-scenes/
They would indeed be shooting themselves in the foot, and with any luck at all it would happen while that foot was firmly implanted in their mouth!
Let Iran close the Strait (singular please). 1/6 of world’s oil moves thru the strait, but the vast majority of that goes to Japan and China and not the US (remember flying over oil tankers during Earnest Will with the new media declaring that every 10 miles was a super tanker heading to Japan or Taiwan). Maybe then the Obamanator would approve the Keystone pipeline. Saudi could increase production to offset the iranian embargo and slowly but surely Iran would starve itself to death, and since they export oil but import gas and refined petro products they wouldn’t last long. AND we get to sell billions of arms to ME countries. All in all not a bad thing.
VX – I has seen those Cairo pictures before. I have also seen a photo montage of Kandahar in the 50′s and 60′s. Same transformation.
“has” = have
Drudge has a linked (UK Telegraph) of the Stennis moving
near the Hormuz strait.Ok. now what Amadinejhihad?
Nice oil terminal you got there. Pipelines too..
Only one major oil refinery? really?
Yeah, nice oil terminal you have there….would be a shame if something were to happen to it….it’s a dangerous world and accidents happen all the time….
It’s their party and they’ll cry when we get there….(apologies to Leslie Gore).