The clock may be running out on Israel’s patience with Iran’s nuclear program, which the Jewish state sees – quite reasonably – as an existential threat:
Israeli leaders on Thursday delivered one of the bluntest warnings to date of possible airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites, adding to the anxiety in Western capitals that a surprise attack by Israel could spark a broader military conflict in the Middle East.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak, speaking at a security forum attended by some of Israel’s top intelligence and military leaders, declared that time was running out for stopping Iran’s nuclear advance, as the country’s uranium facilities disappear into newly constructed mountain bunkers.
“Whoever says ‘later’ may find that later is too late,” Barak said. He switched from Hebrew to English for the last phrase: “later is too late.”
The language reflected a deepening rift between Israeli and U.S. officials over the urgency of stopping Iran’s nuclear program, which Western intelligence officials and nuclear experts say could soon put nuclear weapons within the reach of Iran’s rulers.
If the mullahs are aware of the impending threat, they are steadfastly showing every pretension to ignorance:
Iran denied United Nations inspectors access to a suspected nuclear site, scientists and documents during a visit to Tehran this week, dimming already scant hopes for a breakthrough to end a standoff over Iran’s nuclear work, according to diplomats briefed on the International Atomic Energy Agency’s mission.
The IAEA said it will return a senior-level team to Iran later this month to try and build on three days of discussions that were held with senior Iranian officials, which ended Tuesday.
But U.S. and European officials are already voicing concerns that Tehran is seeking to use the dialogue to divide the international community and stave off additional financial penalties that are being crafted in Washington and the European Union.
Some have decried America’s hyper-power dominance during the post-Cold War era. But I should think that we’ll see more of this sort of thing rather than less, as we withdraw from world and leave other actors to calculate their self-interest without our thumb on the scale. And despite the increased degree of globalization since the Berlin Wall came down, it would be nice to believe that we won’t somehow get dragged into the maelstrom with them.
But there are lots of things which are nice to believe, that are probably untrue.
Get dragged in? Do we even have to check with the Vegas odds on this?
israel certainly has a right to defend itself from a threat it perceives from Iran. What i cannot figure out (if I was an Israeli strike planner) how all this public saber rattling aids my planned attack. Also how my attack does anything more than delay the building of the bombs. Unless you can overturn the government this will go on and on.
For the united states a longer term issue is the nuclearization of more countries–some hostile to us. It may be in our long term interest to aid Israel to deter other actors. Still a risky scenario. Reminds me to go fill up my car before gas hits 5 to 6 dollars a gallon.
I don’t think Israel has the capability to mount an effective attack against Iran. Israel is too small, Iran too big, and they’re too far apart. I could see them mounting an ineffective attack if they believed that Iran would respond by shutting down the Straits, dragging us into the war.
However, threatening to launch an airstrike will prompt the Iranians to disperse and harden their program. That will make the program more expensive, slower, and harder to defend against infiltration. It will also increase the communication overhead. These are all things that make covert attacks easier and more effective. And if there’s one thing Israel excels at, it’s covert attacks.
It is most definitly in our interest to stop the Iranian quest for nukes in it’s tracks. It is in the planets interest to not have a rogue state run by messianic madmen aquire nuclear weapons. But the most powerful nation on the planet is currently run my self serving cowards, with the aquisition of power in thier hands the only item marked important on thier agendas. I greatly fear that it is too late to stop the Muslim Bomb, and can only wait for it to be used. Then comes the maelstrom.
Last I looked, the Paks are Muslims, and they do have the bomb, and the ability to build many more.
But they only intend it for India.
Until they do not.
I understand the Saudis have approached the Paks about buying some Nukes because of Iran.
My concern is the unstable nature of Pakistan. Their real enemy is not India, it’s their own stupidity. If the Paks fall apart, and their nukes fall into the wrong hands, a high likely hood, it would seem at this point, then Katy bar the door.
I have a acct manager on my staff with an Iranian spouse. At the house a couple of weeks ago they still ask who would be the target of an iranian nuke? Israel? As they said (after two glasses of red wine – whoda thought?)”Not likely since even the dumbest mullah knows that the resulting Israeli response would = No Iran”. Not to mention a couple hunnert thousand slow diers in Afghan and Pakistan. We just need to stop the deactivation line at Pantex and ship a couple to our “friends” the Saudis, the Bahrainis, the UAE, and throw in Qatar just for a foursome. Let them stand up to the Iranian crackpots.
I told them the more likely target with a much bigger bang for the buck would be to stick the Iranian nuke in the back of biz jet and head to BWI and at 10,000 ft go boom. EMP would take out DC, Balt, Philly, NYC, oh and Bayonne.
Maybe time to get my money out of NFCU?
Never again!
Can anyone explain why ongoing tolerance for North Korea’s testing and possession of nukes (prima facie encouragement for Iran, et al) has been hands-off?
What blackmail will the U.S. soon be paying to Iran for such “courageous restraint” as the DPRK already receive?
Two words: Dong Feng.
JG, can’t disagree with you, but if that answer is correct, the intellectual dishonesty of a waning super power has reached an alarming stage in and of itself.
“Intellectualdishonesty” is a one word middle name for ALL leftists, Vigilis, but especially for Obama and his minions. Obama’s entire life and modus operandi is bathed in intellectual dishonesty.”
Successful lawyers aim for the least convictions since their clients are never guilty (they tell us). When some are elected to office, I believe ‘convictions’ assumes another meaning, no less detestable.
Leftists cannot not be intellectually dishonest since they lack a requisite trait. Specifically, intellect.
I don’t think it’s intellectual dishonesty, simply a pragmatic understanding of reality. North Korea developed their nuclear program under the nuclear umbrella of China. There really isn’t anything we could have done about it. Negotiations can always be thwarted by one of the shortest words in English: No. Attacking North Korea’s nuclear program would risk nuclear war with China to little gain (North Korea has always had the ability to cause massive damage to South Korea).
That being said, Clinton and Bush both screwed the pooch when it came to dealing with North Korea. We should have cut them off from international aid. Maybe a few million starving people could have convinced the leadership to divert resources.
Iran enjoys none of these advantages, which means they will never negotiate away their nuclear capability. The only hope is regime change.
By default the solution (or initiation of a solution) to this problem will rest with the Israelis since we have abdicated our world leadership position for one of cowardice, negotiation and appeasement. To the bewildered amusement of the Iranians, and many others who dislike us.
The best insurance for success of an Israeli strike would be to tell the U.S. Government about it no more than 5 minutes prior to the “Time On Target” for the strike. Otherwise those in DC who act against our best interests will tell everyone about it, and probably try to stop it, and suggest maybe a strongly worded letter a year or two after return of the 12th Imam.
This is going to get very., very ugly, possibly, nay probably, nuclear. And maybe before the end of Obama’s adminstration. I hope that a prospective new Sec State is studying up on options and will give Obama’s successor some good advice to very serious and difficult issues. If Obama is still in office when this goes down, it will get very bad very fast.
The possiblity of an Iranian covert EMP attack is probably very realistic. Instant return of U.S. cities to Afghan mud hut style living would be most unpleasant, especially for those used to the comfort of the liberal welfare plantation.
Personally I think there’s more than a bit of effort by the Mossad to internally take out Iran -more has come out that there was another “explosion” at another Iranian missile site. Too many
‘accidents’ if you will…
Being an Iranian nuke/rocket scientist is as dangerous as being a keyboardist for the Greatful Dead.
But, yes, I do believe we will be dragged in again.
Heeellllp United States Saaaveee usss!!
August, 1939…
Perhaps this is a good time to buy into an oil ETF. I don’t advocate for a war or think there would be anything good about this one. BUT! I am not averse to profiting from one that seems inevitable.
Didn’t Israel buy about 12-20 bunker busters last year? I don’t know if an F-15I could carry one, though.
Israel will act to stop a bunch of religious nuts from acquiring a weapon that most likely would be used either against Tel Aviv or perhaps, as others have noted, as an EMP effect weapon against the United States. The US could have plausible deniability of any assistance if we used the B-2′s as pathfinders and perhaps defense suppression for the IAF.
I will have to agree that the current POTUS would rather ignore this rather growing problem than actually ACT and do something that will be unpopular. For this particular event, I’d rather be unpopular and alive instead of perhaps watching the damage to either a city or area after an EMP weapon hits.
“…newly constructed mountain bunkers”
Constructed by whom? Do I smell Germany again?
This is what comes at the end of Pax Americana..
Missile away, hatch shut, tube 24.
I hate it when second serving is served late, mess cooks are white as a sheet, and nobody is hungry!
It depends on the moon. I was going to bet on the Ides of March, but on checking, the new moon is 22 March. I think that’s the outer limit.
The real question is whether the Israelis will give us a heads-up.
At least one Bara(c)k has his head out of his a** when it comes to Iran.
We can only conjecture on our own.
Someone has to do the dirty work, we obviously aren’t “capable”.
Here is David Goldman(Spengler) on Iran:
http://pjmedia.com/spengler/2012/02/03/lessons-about-iran-from-hitler/
August,1939.
One other thing-this is going to involve other countries like the NorKs and the Paks. We will have
our two-front war…
maybe three…
Nothing like leadng from behind.Or up your Arse..
Just looking at the order of battle for the Iranian Air Force, they’d be easy meat and would have little means to stop the Israelis. Old Tomcats, short-legged MiG-29s and F-4s and F-5s that were new when I was a little boy? Hahahahaha. I know they brought some Grumble SAMS from the Russkies, but I think the Israelis are good enough at SEAD to defeat them.
I think the problem is twofold: how are they going to defeat the hardened targets to neutralize them and how are they going to avoid contamination of the surrounding countryside and possibly, other nations. They did when they bombed Osriak in Iraq, but that wasn’t hardened like these complexes likely are.
It’s a shame we’ve abdicated our leadership. But it isn’t just Obama, even though I despise him and his policies. Bush didn’t exactly do anything on this except bluster either.
It may too “Clancy-ish”, but the best and cleanest way to handle this situation would be for Israel to pay the US to use space based kinetic weapons. Who’s gonna know? Who could stop us?
Just sayin’