The Egyptian government makes one:
Egypt’s military-led government said Sunday that it would put 19 Americans and two dozen others on trial in a politically charged criminal investigation into the foreign financing of nonprofit groups that has shaken the 30-year alliance between the United States and Egypt.
The decision raises tensions between the two allies to a new peak at a decisive moment in Egypt’s political transition after the ouster of President Hosni Mubarak a year ago. Angry protesters are battling security forces in the streets of the capital and other major cities. The economy is in urgent need of billions of dollars in foreign aid. And the military rulers are in the final stages of negotiations with the Islamists who dominate the new Parliament over the terms of a transfer of power that could set the country’s course for decades.
The criminal prosecution is a rebuke to Washington in the face of increasingly stern warnings to Egypt’s ruling generals from President Obama, cabinet officials and senior Congressional leaders that it could jeopardize $1.55 billion in expected American aid this year, including $1.3 billion for the military.
Egypt’s total defense spending is estimated at around $3.9 billion, meaning that cutting defense aid alone would result in a one-third reduction of funds to the military, which continues to govern the country non-democratically a year after the heady days of the “Arab Spring.”
Egypt’s foreign office says that the decision on whether or not to try US members of NGOs is a judiciary one, but as the NYT article cited above makes clear, both the FO and the courts are under the direct guidance of the military council governing the country.
Cutting foreign assistance to Egypt could destabilize the uneasy partnership between that country, Israel and the US. But maintaining the aid under deliberate provocation by the military council would continue Washington’s bad habit of supporting dictators at the expense of their trampled masses.
We make no friends supplying tyrants the tools the tools they use to break local skulls, and it makes less sense still when those tyrants turn their ire on “foreign schemes that threaten the stability of the homeland.” That sort of thing used to play pretty well in the Arab Street, but recent events have demonstrated that the rules of the game have changed.
Why, when we can’t find funding for our own Navy, would we be giving money to anyone else? Especially a country that is evolving into an enemy.
Unfortunately the only answers to that question I can come up with are:
Because that’s how it’s done. Because if we don’t give them that aid they will hate us. Because if we don’t give them that aid they will get it from someone else and we will lose our influence over them. Better to buy access to them so as to “engage” than to let the Russians or Chinese do it. Not a good answer and it ignores the reality that we never really get the influence we are buying, doesn’t it?
Because they can keep the Suez Canal open and we gotta have that oil. It’s a tax, priced right into your children’s future.
Would disagree slightly, Zane. Most VLC Tankers can’t transit the canal. A major pain? Especially for our Navy? Yes, but the bigger fish to fry is the Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty. About the only influence (limited tho it may be) we have that restrains Egypt now is the threat of withdrawal of aid. Once it’s done we have NO leverage.
Yep, but our own CVBGs can’t get to the Gulf quickly without the canal. The Suez is key to our ability to meddle in that part of the world in the name of protecting… Japan’s?… oil. Or stopping WMDs in Iraq? Bringing the Afghan people into the 9th c. (a two-century leap forward)? Eradicating Somali piracy? Okay, Iranian nukes, that one might stick. If the Israelis don’t get tired of waiting for us to sh*t or get off the pot.
Moderation? Bah. I strike your moderation with my dusty shoe!
Now the interesting question is, what would cause somebody to burn $1.5B in change? It’s certainly not for the chance to put the boot on some relatively ineffective political organization-enablers. I think the Egyptian establishment is cozying up to their new overlords, namely, the Muslim Brotherhood and the people too extreme for the Muslim Brotherhood.
Now, in the context of a regime change, “show us you’re on our side or you go up against the wall with your family” suddenly seems like a good reason to turn down $1.5B, especially when the provider of that money has made perfectly clear they won’t back you against a democratically elected (!) government.
As the Syrian Iranian thing spirals.
This happens.
To me it is a “Pecardis alive or Rashuli dead.”
Moment(yeah I know it didn’t happen that way.)
but with President “Present..”
Unintended consequences. Predictable. Predicted. Toldja.
More important than the money, what are the odds that we will continue to supply parts and support for Egypt’s M1A1′s and F-16′s? This move is pretty much guaranteed to cripple Egypt’s army and possibly the economy. Could this be the generals spiking their guns before turning them over to the Islamists?
One thing is for certain. There’s no way Egypt is going to be able to block US traffic through the Suez.
I actually see this as a ploy for more aid–using hostages. The egyptian military is losing credibility with the people of egypt–last throw of the dice for us to be sucked in to preserve their hegemony.
The trouble here is that the Egyptian military now has no civilian leadership. What’s to stop them from invading their neighbors?
True story: I was taking a class on the new Air Missile Defense Workstations (AMDWS) when I got to talking with the contractors teaching the class. At Fort Bliss we’ve had Egyptians (and UAE, Saudi and Kuwaiti) air defense soldiers. He had just taught Egyptains a class on the work station. They were the most arrogant pricks he had the misfortune to work with. They’d make mistake after mistake, get wrong answers on the practical AND written course. They’d blame him, his co-workers, his boss, the computer etc. He said he was really sad because back in the 80′s he taught HAWK to the Egyptians. Many had lost friends and family in the various border wars. They wanted to learn and were professional. Some even wrote to him after they went home. What a difference 20 years makes.