Pax Americana has been pretty good for America, and the rest of the world as well. But battered and scarred by combat in inhospitable places, and with pocket book issues facing the electorate as we move ever closer to a crippingly expensive European-style welfare state realizing the progressive vision, public men are openly predicting that a post-American world will be not merely a better place, but more of the same. Writing in the WSJ, Robert Kagan opines that the world that most of us have grown up knowing, one of relative peace and prosperity, one of “free minds and free markets”, is a historical anomaly that may not survive the removal of its foundation stone:
Many foreign-policy experts see the present international order as the inevitable result of human progress, a combination of advancing science and technology, an increasingly global economy, strengthening international institutions, evolving “norms” of international behavior and the gradual but inevitable triumph of liberal democracy over other forms of government—forces of change that transcend the actions of men and nations.
Americans certainly like to believe that our preferred order survives because it is right and just—not only for us but for everyone. We assume that the triumph of democracy is the triumph of a better idea, and the victory of market capitalism is the victory of a better system, and that both are irreversible. That is why Francis Fukuyama’s thesis about “the end of history” was so attractive at the end of the Cold War and retains its appeal even now, after it has been discredited by events. The idea of inevitable evolution means that there is no requirement to impose a decent order. It will merely happen.
But international order is not an evolution; it is an imposition. It is the domination of one vision over others—in America’s case, the domination of free-market and democratic principles, together with an international system that supports them. The present order will last only as long as those who favor it and benefit from it retain the will and capacity to defend it.
There was nothing inevitable about the world that was created after World War II. No divine providence or unfolding Hegelian dialectic required the triumph of democracy and capitalism, and there is no guarantee that their success will outlast the powerful nations that have fought for them. Democratic progress and liberal economics have been and can be reversed and undone. The ancient democracies of Greece and the republics of Rome and Venice all fell to more powerful forces or through their own failings. The evolving liberal economic order of Europe collapsed in the 1920s and 1930s. The better idea doesn’t have to win just because it is a better idea. It requires great powers to champion it.
The CO of a Fallon-based adversary squadron had an interesting take on the US, comparing it to the Roman Republic. Look around you he said, most of us have haircuts that would not seem out of place in the Roman forums. Eagles support our banners. We seek to remake the world in our own form, even as we borrow money for bread, circuses and foreign wars of conquest. Those holding political power seek to tax the productive classes unto extinction, eliminating any competing sources of power while earning the obeisance of the dependent classes.
The Roman Republic was great while it lasted, not only for the Romans.
What followed after, not so much.
As was Pax Britannica. Fashionable today to preach against the colonial British, but compare and contrast the former British Colonies with their non-Brit comparables.
Even a few years ago I wouldn’t have thought it, but it is no longer a stretch to imagine the next coming of Julius Caesar and the end of the American Republic.
The issue is not that we are unable to continue to build upon the success of the 20th century, it is we HAVE NO LEADERS. None. Zip. Zero. Zilch.
We need a Churchill, an IKE, a Harry Truman. All we get are Newts, Mitts, OBOT, and all these other idiots who WANT to be President, but are no more qualified than any of us who post here. ( I apologize, some of us could definitely do better than the idiots we are stuck with presently)
With the right leadership, willing to make the right decisions and put things on track, we could do anything we need to. To allow the mediocre pols we have in place presently, it should be no surprise that we get a crappy result.
Until we elect the right people, we will be lead by those like the President who are all about the wrong things instead of doing what is best for our nation.
SK1/
Appropos of the leadership question I post from time to time a link to an essay a homeschooling mom in Ark named Freeman Hunt (who comments frequently at Ann Althouses’ place) wrote a while back on this topic which today seems very farsighted. Read her essay “He is Not Coming” @ http://www.freemanhunt.blogspot.com/2009/06/he-is-not-coming.html#links
Virg, we have one Pol who has stood up to the unions and the Libs. Governor Chris Christie is the guy we need in the White House as he is the direct opposite of the OBOT-Pelosi-Reid alliance of lefty loonies. If he is willing to take on the DEMS in NJ ( where they really don’t play nice), think about what he could do as President.
I understand and respect his decision to sit out this election cycle but I personally feel he has the basic leadership qualities needed and has demonstrated that he is willing to take on those who want to drive our country and states into the ground.
The big question will be when will we get the chance to see him on the national stage ? IF OBOT wins, he has the opportunity in 2016….IF the GOP takes the White House, we will likely have to wait a bit longer for this normal guy from New Jersey.
Christie, alas, is a leftist weenie himself. He looks on the NJ scale, but he’s actually a lib as well. A bad one at that.
Scott Walker is the chap we need. After he finishes straghtening up Badgerland
SK1, what’s wrong with leading yourself? What’s wrong with self-government?
It’s people like post-WWI Germans who need a “fuehrer,” a leader, who get one.
Yet, are the leaders the cause or the effect? Does adversity create character, or merely reveal it? If the latter, then I am afraid we stand as a generation exposed.
It is not only the political leadership that has failed us. Look at the leadership record in almost any major field of endeavor. Business, Military, Science, Education… What is striking is not that we lack good people, but that the people we have selected as leaders have failed us so spectacularly.
“Statesmen, my dear Sir, may plan and speculate for Liberty, but it is Religion and Morality alone, which can establish the Principles upon which Freedom can securely stand. The only foundation of a free Constitution is pure Virtue, and if this cannot be inspired into our People in a greater Measure than they have it now, They may change their Rulers and the forms of Government, but they will not obtain a lasting Liberty. They will only exchange Tyrants and Tyrannies.”
John Adams, 21 June 1776
“Because we have no government, armed with power, capable of contending with human passions, unbridled by morality and religion. Avarice, ambition, revenge and licentiousness would break the strongest cords of our Constitution, as a whale goes through a net. Our Constitution was made only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate to the government of any other.”
John Adams, 11 October 1798
And, that last statement describes in a nutshell why we are the pass we are at. The electorate has been morally degraded, and such an electorate will get the type of “leader” it deserves.
Well said, QM. Couldn’t agree more.
History, I believe, furnishes no example of a priest-ridden people maintaining a free civil government. This marks the lowest grade of ignorance of which their civil as well as religious leaders will always avail themselves for their own purposes.
-Thomas Jefferson to Alexander von Humboldt, Dec. 6, 1813
If we’re gonna throw around quotes from the founders, Jefferson’s a good oe to look at, too.
With respect, I believe it’s possible to draw a meaningful distinction between “moral and religious” and “priest-ridden.”
Hey Dirt! Are you back in CONUS?
Oh nice! John Adams quotes. I like these John Adams quotes:
Let the human mind loose. It must be loose. It will be loose. Superstition and dogmatism cannot confine it.
– John Adams, letter to his son, John Quincy Adams, November 13, 1816, from James A Haught, ed, 2000 Years of Disbelief
The Treaty of Tripoli
Signed by John Adams
“As the government of the United States is not, in any sense, founded on the Christian religion; as it has in itself no character of enmity against the laws, religion or tranquility of Musselmen [Muslims] … it is declared … that no pretext arising from religious opinion shall ever product an interruption of the harmony existing between the two countries….
“The United States is not a Christian nation any more than it is a Jewish or a Mohammedan nation.”
— Treaty of Tripoli (1797), carried unanimously by the Senate and signed into law by John Adams (the original language is by Joel Barlow, US Consul)
Adams went a bit bonkers in his dottage. There was also a great deal of evidence cotra the Treaty of Tripoli. Adams, and Jay were engaged in a bit of revisionist history.
It’s also a bit ironic that you neglect Toqueville, but he doesn’t say anything you want to hear.
Fact is, however, this country has sunk in direct proportion that it has forgotten God.
We seem to already have our Gaius Caligula Caesar, complete with panem et circenses. Hollywood provides the circus, and the current administration provides the handouts–er–bread.
Actually what followed was even better! The Eastern Roman Empire. It preserved Christianity, thank you. And it extended the Roman Empire for a thousand more years. It saved the ancient Greek writings and blocked Arab invasion of Europe.
I think maybe that “Adversary CO” should revisit some more accurate Western Civ history. Stick to fighter tactics, not bogus metaphors.
“The Roman Republic was great while it lasted, not only for the Romans.” —– Great in what way, and for whom? Indeed it was “great” but……
[Forgetting of course the massacres of those that they conquered for 'empire', the slaves, the crucifixions, the games to watch people die, debauchery, the excesses and the persecution of the Israelites.]
What followed after, not so much.”
Actually what followed was even better! The Eastern Roman Empire. It preserved Christianity. And it extended the Roman Empire a thousand more years. It saved the ancient Greek writings and blocked Arab invasion of Europe.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExWfh6sGyso
Flit, about the Eastern Roman Empire. The Empire survived poor leaders, civil wars, good leaders with poor generals, poor leaders with good generals, 4 serious sieges of their Capital, lack of a sound succession plan, religious schism, changing religious practices, and Muslim ascendency.
What the Empire did to survive was keep a tech lead in defense, fund maritime supremacy, spend greatly on defense (esp. the Walls of Constantinople) and have a heartland filled with prosperous farmers to man the armies.
And one more key event, the Nika Riots. The death of 30,000 usurpers lead to a secure Empire, for a time. The dead rioters appear to fill the political niche of today’s left wing radicals.
Are you willing to allow the deaths of many radical, no-load malcontents (that wish America and it’s Constitution were consigned to the ash heap of history) in order for the US to survive in the future? This is the legacy of the Eastern Roman Empire as well.
If I’m not mistaken, every major ‘society’ that flew the Eagle ended up failing and undergoing fundamental changes. Roman Empire, Nazi Germany…
Wrong choice of totem is destiny? Logical, penetrating analysis based on…damnfool nonsense.
Here’s a snappy phrase…apparent correlation is no proof of causation. Try it on for size, no charge.
More beautiful homes built every year with a library of “The Joy of Sex” and “The Rotation Diet”.
Each additional day I live I feel more in common with the old bull elephant who just goes deep in the forest to live by himself with the comfort of his general grumpiness.
Geezer Power! Grandpa, Geezer Power! (I’m thinking of starting a Tee-shirt franchise–note to self: must check out Zazzle
)
I would follow you into the woods, but alas, I am cursed with the cuddly loveableness of the male Badger, an animal known for his joie de vie.
Unless they is a Weenie Dawg about. The Badgers become somewhat morose and cantankerous.
Colonial powers impose their view of society upon the colony. While that generally tends to be a better society, seeing as how the colonial power has, well, more power which tends to indicate a more advanced society and a better standard of living, it doesn’t sit well with those who favor the Old Ways.
As a hick from South Dakota I can sort of understand why some might rebel against this outside help. I no more want to become a Californian and abide by the laws of that state than Nancy Pelosi wants to represent me. On the other hand, it is very difficult to look at California and their finances as a source of inspiration.
That doesn’t mean I want to return to the days of the Indian Wars, the Civil War, or following buffalo across the plains and burning crap to keep myself warm.
Some men look at things and want to improve them. Others look and want to destroy or cast blame. Having been suddenly catapulted forward 50 years via imposed colonialism, it’s easier to destroy than advance.
– Max
How ironic that CNN has Fareed Zarka, in the 90′s Time magazine talked about a “multi-polar world.”
Without US leadership there would have been no Kosovo war, Iraq war, no Odessey Dawn and no Arab spring. We carried Europe and Asia during the cold war.
A “post-American” world would see more wars. A truly impotent UN, unable to launch those wonderful peace keeping missions without US logistics. A violent Middle East, China curbstomping Taiwan, North vs. South Korea. Bismark once said that the nations of Europe were like passengers on a train armed with pistols, just waiting for a tunnel so they could fire the first shot.
TL;DR, a return to a world more like the 19th century, but with nukes.
Exactly, Chockblock….
Ruminating on your last comment, about the end of the Roman republic, I was reminded of Marcus Lucanus’ defense of Julius Caesar’s actions in bringing about that end, specifically his claim that Caesar’s hand was forced by the decline of the republic to step in and fix things. A sobering parallel to our current situation was that there was an ongoing and deepening economic depression, with high levels of unemployment, worsened by troop level drawdowns brought about by the end of several ongoing (and lengthy) military campaigns.
Caesar has crossed the Alps, his mighty soul
Great tumults pondering and the coming shock.
Now on the marge of Rubicon, he saw,
In face most sorrowful and ghostly guise,
His trembling country’s image; huge it seemed
Through mists of night obscure; and hoary hair
Streamed from the lofty front with turrets crowned:
Torn were her locks and naked were her arms.
Then thus, with broken sighs the Vision spake:
“What seek ye, men of Rome? and whither hence
Bear ye my standards? If by right ye come,
My citizens, stay here; these are the bounds;
No further dare.” But Caesar’s hair was stiff
With horror as he gazed, and ghastly dread
Restrained his footsteps on the further bank.
Then spake he, “Thunderer, who from the rock
Tarpeian seest the wall of mighty Rome;
Gods of my race who watched o’er Troy of old;
Thou Jove of Alba’s height, and Vestal fires,
And rites of Romulus erst rapt to heaven,
And God-like Rome; be friendly to my quest.
Not with offence or hostfie arms I come,
Thy Caesar, conqueror by land and sea,
Thy soldier here and wheresoe’er thou wilt:
No other’s; his, his only be the guilt
Whose acts make me thy foe.’ He gives the word
And bids his standards cross the swollen stream.
…
When Csesar crossed and trod beneath his feet
The soil of Italy’s forbidden fields,
“Here,” spake he, “peace, here broken laws be left;
Farewell to treaties. Fortune, lead me on;
War is our judge, and in the fates our trust.”
On a somewhat related note, though the movie is…problematic at best, Joshua Lawrence Chamberlain’s take on Lucanus’ “Rubicon” speech is marvelous, easier to understand, and even more relevant to this discussion:
In the Roman Civil War, Julius Caesar knew he had to march on Rome itself, which no legion was permitted to do. Marcus Lucanus left us a chronicle of what happened: “How swiftly Caesar had surmounted the icy Alps when in his mind conceived immense upheavals, coming war. When he reached the water of the little Rubicon, clearly to the leader through the murky night appeared a mighty image of his country in distress; grief in her face, her white hair streaming off her tower-crowned head, with tresses torn and shoulders bare, she stood before him and sighing said, ‘Where further do you march? Where do you take my standards, warriors? If lawfully you come, if as citizens, this far only is allowed.’
Then trembling struck the leader’s limbs, his hair grew stiff and weakness checked his progress, holding his feet at the river’s edge. At last he speaks, ‘Oh thunderer, surveying great Rome’s walls from the Tarpeian Rock– oh Phrygian house gods of Iulus, clan and mysteries of Quirinus who was carried off to heaven– oh Jupiter of Latium, seated in lofty Alba and hearths of Vesta– oh Rome, equal to the highest deity, favor my plans. Not with impious weapons do I pursue you. Here I am, Caesar, conqueror of land and sea, your own soldier, everywhere, now too, if I am permitted. The man who makes me your enemy, it is he who be the guilty one.’
Then he broke the barriers of war and through the swollen river swiftly took his standards. And Caesar crossed the flood and reached the opposite bank. From Hesperia’s forbidden fields, he took his stand and said, ‘Here I abandon peace and desecrated law. Fortune, it is you I follow. Farewell to treaties. From now on war is our judge.’
Hail Caesar. We who are about to die salute you.
Bottom line? Pax has been done before, many times. It always ends the same way. Sometimes the way it gets to that finality is worse than others. We are in danger today, just as Rome was in 49 b.c., of taking the righteous anger of the loss of our most precious blood and applying in ways that can never be reversed.
Spartacus rebelled several years before Ceasar took over.
Just sayin’.
Byzantium is to the Roman Republic as (fill in the blank) is to (formerly) Great Britain.
Chockblock – “More Wars?”
The Romans did not have nuclear weapons, aircraft carriers, computers and an economy of unimaginable size and complexity. Life will go on, the nation will endure, all this talk of the country falling apart is not new. I think were good….
Flit, the link you provides only reinforces the theme of the original post, by documenting the impact of the “new peace”, aka post 1946 Pax Americana.
The larger point of course is that peace is not “automatic” as a result of some abstract concept of human progress, but in fact is wholly contingent on the presence of a leviathan power.
Kyle, odd post. I’d argue the opposite – technology has only accelerated the cycle. The Romans brought 500 years of peace, the Brits 100, the Americans something less.
Given the financial and political situation, I think break up of the US is real possibility. The country has become essentially ungovernable as the FedGov has usurped more and more power. The US is actually in more danger than in 1860.
We are two nations: quasimarxist nihilists who are all eaten up with a combination of self-loathing & moral superiority & the rest of us who believe in higher power other than government & who have a modicum of common sense & decency. There is no compromise with a side that has no problem with runaway debt fostering a culture of dependency. Just like there was no compromise with the horror of slavery.
“…all eaten up with a combination of self-loathing & moral superiority…” You’ve captured the grotesque sickness of the left perfectly. +1
Slavery was not the cause, or reason, for the war of northern aggression.
As an immigrant to these fair shores I will suggest another point for consideration: there is no where else to go.
President Reagan liked to recount the tale of a Cuban who escaped to this country. The Cuban was telling two American friends about his ordeal when they remarked to each other how lucky they were to have been born here. The Cuban interjected that he was the lucky one, for he had somewhere to go.
If freedom fails here there is no where else to go. The rest of the Anglosphere has already adopted the rot of big government paternalism and socialized medicine that is eating them alive. America is all that remains.
If we don’t stand then it is over. It may take time like for Rome, or it may be quick like for Britain. But the damage to liberty will be terminal. And in the end it doesn’t matter what steps in its place, whether that’s Totalitarianism from Russia, Communism from China, or Islamism from everywhere. Liberty will not remain.
And to those leaders of ours who understand the situation but refuse to step into the ring I call them cowards.
Soldiers, sailors, airmen and marines do not get to avoid the call of duty by claiming family reasons, a bad political climate or a hostile media.
My only hope is that for over two hundred years America has survived despite all the efforts to destroy her internally and externally, and as a wise man once said, God loves drunks, small children and the United States of America.
Toynbee pointed out that contries are not murdered, they commit suicide. The internal rot in the US is quite far advanced. In my opinion the US past the tipping point 40 years ago. Neither party has the will to make the chnages required to have any chance of putting things right.
I would like to be wrong. I truly hope I am wrong, but I very much doubt I am wrong. An ignorant and immoral people can not build a working society. They can only tear one down, and so far they’ve done a very good job of that.
The problem with the Roman Empire is it decayed from within and broke into fragments and then in The History of the Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire (1776–88), Edward Gibbon famously placed the blame on a loss of civic virtue among the Roman citizens. They gradually entrusted the role of defending the Empire to barbarian mercenaries who eventually turned on them. Gibbon held that Christianity contributed to this shift by making the populace less interested in the worldly here-and-now because it was willing to wait for the rewards of heaven. “The decline of Rome was the natural and inevitable effect of immoderate greatness. Prosperity ripened the principle of decay; the causes of destruction multiplied with the extent of conquest; and as soon as time or accident had removed the artificial supports, the stupendous fabric yielded to the pressure of its own weight,” he wrote. “In discussing Barbarism and Christianity I have actually been discussing the Fall of Rome.”